Netherlands vs England Prediction: Penalties beckon for the Three Lions again

The Netherlands and England face off in a Euro 2024 semi-final in Dortmund on Wednesday (20:00, ITV1/STV) with both teams having experienced similar journeys in Germany up until this point.

They were underwhelming in the group stage and have done what they needed to do once they progressed to the knockout stage. Now they are on the cusp of the final. Below I have put forward my Netherlands vs England prediction, featuring match odds and team news.

Netherlands vs England Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Netherlands vs England page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Netherlands are 11/5 to win this tie in 90 minutes, which gives them an implied probability of 31.3%. England are valued at 13/8, giving them a theoretical chance of 38.1% chance. If you think this game will go to extra-time then the draw is available at 15/8 (34.8%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 1/1 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 6/4.

Euro 2024 Odds

Team News

Netherlands boss Ronald Koeman has used the same lineup in both knockout ties so far so it is unlikely that he will make changes. Steven Bergwijn has struggled to make an impact on the right flank but his boss has backed him by continuing to start him. Both Donyell Malen and Jeremie Frimpong will be vying for that spot in the starting XI.

England welcome back Marc Guehi from suspension but Gareth Southgate has a tough decision to make following Ezri Konsa’s excellent defensive display against Switzerland.

Captain Harry Kane is set to be included after he went off with cramp against the Swiss last time out, although fans have been calling for him to be dropped after some quiet performances.

England to win on penalties @ 8/1

Belief that England can go all the way is starting to creep in now. They turned in a better performance against Switzerland and to come from behind and win the tie shows you all you need to know about their character and what Southgate has achieved.

The fact that they scored all five of their penalties in the shoot-out is most impressive, which is why I think that it could be the way this tie will go too. The Netherlands and England have had similar journeys at Euro 2024. Both had underwhelming group stage performances but since getting to the knockout stage they have been doing what is required to get the job done.

Like the Swiss, the Netherlands will provide the Three Lions with a stern test and one that they cannot underestimate. They have, after all, progressed through the knockout stage by winning both of their games in regulation time, but they themselves face their toughest opponent to date on paper in Southgate’s men.

I can see both teams frustrating one another here and I can see this tie going all the way to penalties. I give England the advantage after their flawless shoot-out against the Swiss, while the Oranje have not been involved in a single one in Germany so far.

Draw (in 90 mins) @ 15/8

As such, I think regulation time will end in a draw. England have shown mental strength in both of their knockout ties so far, coming from behind against Slovakia and Switzerland, which once again shows that this is a very different Three Lions group to many that have gone before.

The Netherlands came from behind against Turkey to win their quarter-final 2-1 but they will find England to be tough opponents, and I do see them cancelling each other out in 90 minutes. Either team can take the lead here and I’d back the trailing side to have the character to conjure up an equaliser.

Correct score – 1-1 (in 90 mins) @ 5/1

If I had to give a score prediction for this one I’d have to go with a 1-1 draw. England’s theme throughout the tournament is that they don’t look like they will score many in a match and while the Netherlands have players who can make things happen, they will be coming up against a stubborn Three Lions defence.

Offers

Netherlands v England (Wed): We will be Top Price or joint Top Price on Netherlands to beat England in 90 minutes with selected bookmakers using oddschecker.com for the comparison (Available from 12-1 Tuesday on the Bonus Hour & from 09:30 Wednesday)

Netherlands v England (Wed): Build your own Bet Builder (3/1+) of 4+ legs on Netherlands v England and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets if it loses. (Credited within 48 hours – 7 day expiry).

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven Pre-Match offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

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Place a bet on the Anytime Goalscorer market on any Euro 2024 Knockout match and if your player scores in Extra Time we’ll pay you out as a winner.

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You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.