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The NBA Christmas Day slate is more than just an opportunity to avoid family time. It’s a good assessment point for the season, as teams have played roughly one-third of their schedule.
Just under a week out from Christmas, we have a decent idea of the contenders in each conference, as well as the potential buyers and sellers ahead of the trade deadline in early February.
Futures odds have adjusted based on performances through the first two months, but there’s still plenty of time to capitalize on profitable spots on your favorite legal betting apps. Here’s a sampling of the potential values that stand out, from teams on the way up, to teams on the way down, to players in the hunt for awards.
On the rise: Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Orlando
The Western Conference is currently paced by a pair of surprise performers. Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA, while Oklahoma City is just ahead of Denver for the No. 2 spot in the West.
The Timberwolves were nearly 70/1 to win the title in early November, but those odds have tumbled to as low as +1800 at Caesars Sportsbook. Minnesota leads the league in defensive rating and points allowed per game.
The Thunder are led by a young core that includes an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the current Rookie of the Year favorite in Chet Holmgren. Their championship odds reached as high as +7500 in November, but have since moved to as low as +3500. OKC is top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. They’re behind only Philadelphia and Boston in terms of net rating.
Orlando is another young team making noise, sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, behind perennial favorites Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. The Magic opened with a win total at 37.5, a number that has already risen to 43.5. They’re below .500 on the road, but boast an 11-2 record at home.
Bet to consider: Orlando to win Southeast Division
Minnesota and OKC are great stories and should make some noise in the playoffs. The issue is the seemingly endless stream of viable contenders in the West. Phoenix currently has the second-best odds to win the conference, and they’re in 10th place. Exactly two-thirds of the teams in the West are above .500, and Memphis, one of the few bottom feeders for now, is getting its best player back in Ja Morant.
The East is a different story. Outside of the aforementioned Celtics, Sixers, and Bucks, this conference is a mess. That trio comprises the only mentions of the East in the top 10 of the championship odds.
Orlando’s division is especially weak. Washington and Charlotte have 11 wins between them. They’re 27th and 28th in net rating, respectively. Atlanta has dropped 7 of 10, falling four games under .500. The Hawks are 27th in defensive rating and allow the third-most points per game. Miami is the lone challenger to Orlando’s divisional supremacy. They’re 15-12 and have somewhat weathered the storm of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo’s absences.
Orlando has been without both Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr. for much of the season, but both are nearing a return. That will push Goga Bitadze back to the bench and return rookie Anthony Black to a role more fit for his current skill set. The Magic have plenty of assets to make a major addition at the trade deadline, potentially upgrading to a more impactful offensive player in the Jalen Suggs spot.
I like the value on Orlando at +125 to win the division at DraftKings, especially given Miami’s general apathy toward the regular season.
Falling fast: Golden State, Memphis, Detroit
The Warriors entered the season around 12/1 to secure their fifth title in 10 seasons. That number is long gone. Golden State is up to +3400 on FanDuel to add another banner, behind six other teams in the West. At 12-14, they would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. They’ll be without Draymond Green for the foreseeable future.
Memphis dealt with a key suspension of its own and struggled mightily without Morant. The team has managed just six wins and posted an ugly 1-11 mark at home. The Grizzlies finished second in the West last season on the strength of a ridiculous 35-6 record in their own building. Memphis’ preseason win total of 44.5 has tumbled to 33.
Detroit didn’t have nearly the same preseason outlook as Golden State or Memphis, but the Pistons have been even worse than expected. Their preseason win total (28.5) has been cut by 10 victories, which is what happens when you lose 24 in a row. The Pistons’ intriguing group of youngsters has devolved into a hodgepodge of redundancies.
Bet to consider: Golden State to miss the playoffs
The play-in games have expanded the opportunities to reach the postseason, but teams still have to emerge from those matchups in order to cash make-the-playoffs bets. And again, Golden State wouldn’t even be in that mix if the season ended today.
The Warriors are a symmetrical 16th in offensive rating and 16th in defensive rating. Their 0.1 net rating is good for 19th. Golden State ranks outside the top 10 in scoring after finishing second last season. The Warriors’ typical dominance at home hasn’t shown up (6-6 record), and they’re below .500 on the road.
Head coach Steve Kerr has recently made the move to feature some of his younger players, both out of necessity (Green’s suspension) and poor performance (Andrew Wiggins). Rookie Brandin Podziemski has performed admirably, but the rest of the roster outside of Steph Curry has struggled.
The bigger question for Golden State is not whether they can turn things around, but which team(s) they can boot out of a postseason berth. Betting against the health of the Lakers, Pelicans, and Clippers has often been profitable, but all of their rosters are currently intact. The Suns haven’t had their big three together outside of two games, yet have managed to stay afloat.
Houston may be the target. The Rockets have a top-3 defense but a bottom-10 offense and are horrific on the road (2-10). However, even if Golden State can move past them, how can we have any confidence the Warriors can navigate the play-in games? They’re an easy fade unless they shake things up via the trade market, and a price at FanDuel of -130 for them to miss the playoffs seems more than fair.
Dark horse award candidates
The awards market is currently paced by familiar and/or expected names: Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, and so on. There are not a lot of surprises up top. But we still have a long way to go before awards voting, and there are plenty of paths for longshots to make a move.
Longshot MVP to consider: Jayson Tatum (+1800)
Tatum hasn’t been priced higher than 9/1 until recently. His scoring is down nearly three points, but the rest of his numbers are in line with his 2022-23 campaign, when he finished fourth in MVP voting.
The case for him would be his being the best player on a historic regular season team. Boston is tied for the best record in the league at 20-5. If the Celtics were to maintain that pace and win 65-ish games, that would be something for voters to ponder. It’s enough of a possibility that 18/1, currently available at numerous sportsbooks, offers some value.
Longshot 6th Man to consider: Immanuel Quickley (+1100)
Quickley lost a tight race to Malcolm Brogdon for this award last season, and he has largely picked up where he left off, averaging just under 15 PPG.
Austin Reaves is the current favorite, but his candidacy could be ruined by entering the starting lineup. He’s clearly one of the Lakers’ best players and has started nine of 27 games. Players have to come off the bench for more games than they start to qualify for this award.
There are several players ahead of Quickley, but he’s shown the scoring chops off the bench to warrant consideration, especially at +1100 on FanDuel in such a flimsy market.
Longshot MIP to consider: Coby White (+1000)
Tyrese Maxey has an excellent case for the Most Improved Player Award, and it would likely take an injury or a Philadelphia freefall for him to be knocked off the top spot. White’s current form has raised some eyebrows, though. Four more months of him going nuclear for the Bulls could tighten this race.
White has taken on a larger role with Zach LaVine sidelined. In the past nine games without LaVine, White is averaging 25.4 points, 6.8 assists, and 6.4 rebounds — basically right in line with what Maxey’s done this season.
There’s a route for this production to not only continue, but grow. LaVine is on his way out the door, but what if DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, or Nikola Vucevic get traded as well? White, who’s +1000 for this award at PointsBet, could have a wide-open path to massive production if Chicago finally blows things up.
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