NAP of the Day: Gundogan to make a successful return… to Carlisle

Aside from York’s Ebor Festival – read my Day 1 tips here – we’re set for a fairly quiet Wednesday featuring modest cards at Carlisle, Worcester, Sligo and Kempton.

That being said, I’ve been drawn to the former venue in my search for the NAP of the Day.

At face value, odds-on about a horse yet to taste success in seven starts doesn’t seem like value, but GUNDOGAN has been found the ultimate opportunity to finally break his duck at Carlisle on Wednesday.

Edward Bethell’s three-year-old has finished runner-up four times, including on three occasions this season, and is becoming very expensive to follow, but as far as I’m concerned this is by far his easiest assignment to date.

Per the 14:40 Carlisle Odds, it’s only Pinsent who poses a significant threat to the selection. He’s not without a chance, but he’s hardly a menacing rival at the same time.

Not only does David & Nicola Barron’s runner have to give a couple of pounds away, but he’s shown little during his short career so far.

I suppose you could try and take positives from his latest effort, when runner-up to Karl Burke’s Flight Radar at Redcar, but ultimately he was beaten over three lengths by a horse sold for a mere 1,000gns just three months ago – and the third-placed Longhaired General, who was sent off 11/10f, returned lame.

Despite his tendency to find one too good, I much prefer Gundogan as a proposition on his return to Carlisle – the scene of the best run yet, when going down by just a head to a well-backed favourite who was in receipt of six pounds.

His subsequent and most recent performance at Redcar was also solid in the context of Wednesday’s contest. He wasn’t beaten far by a horse rated three pounds superior that was receiving one, and he had the rest of the field over two lengths behind.

Connections have opted to apply blinkers, which will hopefully have the desired effect of helping Gundogan focus, especially out of the gates which has been a recurring issue for the Territories colt.

The trip is a slight concern as he steps back to six furlongs for the first time in nearly a year, but all thing’s considered I’ll be bitterly disappointed if he can’t get off the mark here.

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