Starmer could have to wait 18 months to become PM
Given the way the polls are going it is hard to see any sort of recovery in the months before the general election. The public appears to have made up its mind about Sunak and his party and there are very few positive signs for the Tories.
The July 20th byelections will likely add another nail in the coffin and there have been reports that he himself has given up.
So when is the next election going to be called? I’m coming to a view that Sunak will wait right to the end and we could have an election in January 2025. Unless there is a dramatic turn in public opinion there he’s surely not going to go to the country when a certain defeat would seem the only possible outcome.
According to the law “If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met.” So the last possible date would be the end of January 2025.
If there was a betting market on this I would go for that month with the election taking place on January 30th 2025.
