• One of the best road teams in the league, the Miami Heat visit the Sacramento Kings on Monday night
• Both teams enter Monday on three-game win streaks, but Heat star Jimmy Butler is serving a one-game suspension
• See the Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings odds, player props, picks, and available betting promos on Feb. 26

Two teams battling for playoff positioning in their respective conferences meet on Monday night as the Miami Heat (31-25, 16-12 away, 27-28-1 ATS) travel to Sacramento to face the Kings (33-23, 16-9 home, 29-26-1 ATS) at 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET.

Despite Miami boasting a 16-12 straight-up record away from home, the Kings are listed as 6.5-point home favorites for Monday’s game at the Golden 1 Center. Miami star Jimmy Butler will be serving a one game suspension.

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Odds

The Kings are also heavy -278 favorites on the moneyline with the Heat coming back at +220 to win straight-up in Monday’s NBA odds.

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Odds as of Feb. 26 at BetMGM. Click here to see the latest on the BetMGM North Carolina promo available on March 11. 

Coming off a run to the NBA finals as a #8 seed, Miami (+3925) is just outside the top-ten in the NBA championship odds. The Kings (+6625) have the 15th-best odds to win the title.

If the NBA playoff bracket was cemented today, the Heat would be forced to go the Play-In route again, just like last year. Miami is currently the #7 seed in the East and would host #8 Orlando in the 7-vs-8 game. Sacramento occupies the #5 seed in the West and would have the unenviable task of facing the LA Clippers in a best-of-seven without home-court advantage.

Miami Riding Three-Game (Road) Win Streak

The Heat entered the All-Star break with two impressive road wins: 123-97 win at Milwaukee as 7.5-point road underdogs and 109-105 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point underdogs. They maintained that momentum in their first game back, routing the Pelicans 108-96 in New Orleans on Friday. But three players (Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and Thomas Bryant) were suspended in the aftermath for their roles in an on-court dust-up.

Bam Adebayo had a team-high 24 points and seven rebounds, while Butler added 23 points, nine boards, and six assists. Miami’s smothering defense held the Pelicans to just 37.5% shooting from the field and 21.9% from three.

Defense has been the Heat’s calling card all season, sitting seventh in Defensive Rating (112.7). Miami’s offense, however, has been just as mediocre as it was last regular season: the Heat are 22nd in O-Rating (113.2) and just 17th in Net Rating (+0.5) as a result.

Kings Dominate Clippers in Front Half of Back-to-Backs

The Kings recorded one of their most-impressive wins of the season last night, crushing the Clippers 123-107 in LA. De’Aaron Fox had a team-high 33 points plus seven assists and six rebounds in the win, while Domantas Sabonis posted a ludicrous triple-double: 17 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists plus three steals and just one turnover.

The domination on the glass was nothing new for Sabonis, who leads the league in rebounding (13.2 RPG) while also averaging 20.1 points and a team-high 8.4 assists per game.

But coming off a 48-34 regular season last year (and a #3 seed in the West), this campaign hasn’t quite lived up to expectations for the team as a whole. Their point differential has tumbled from +2.6 last season to just +0.8 this year, which is just ninth-best in the Western Conference. The offense has been decent (117.0, 13th) but the defense has been lackluster (116.2, 19th).

MIA vs SAC Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on Feb. 26.

De’Aaron Fox has the highest point total of the night, but at 24.5, is pegged 2.5 points below his season average (26.9 PPG). With Butler out of the lineup, both Adebayo and Herro are at 21.5 O/U for the Heat.

Heat vs Kings Prediction

I am not going to suggest Miami is better off without Butler, the Heat are at least very used to playing without him. Butler has only played 38 of Miami’s 56 games this season and the Heat are 11-7 in the 18 games he’s missed. That includes the wins over Milwaukee and Philadelphia just before the All-Star break.

With the Kings playing the second of back-to-backs, and travelling to/from Los Angeles in the process, this 6.5-point spread is too big for my taste.

Miami vs Sacramento pick: Heat +6.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 17-21 moneyline (+4.06 units)
• 11-12-2 ATS (-0.87 units)
• 7-12 player props (-6.82 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise 

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