- Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks (12-5) are 3-point road favorites over Jimmy Butler’s Heat (10-7)
- Bam Adebayo is averaging career highs in points (22.7) and rebounds (10.7) this season
- Tuesday night’s game tips off from Kaseya Center in Miami, FL at 7:30pm ET
One of the NBA’s best rivalries will resume on Tuesday night. The Heat bounced the top-seeded Bucks out of the playoffs in five games last season. Milwaukee responded by replacing their head coach and bringing in Damian Lillard to pair with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both players put up big numbers in a win over Miami in late October.
Before we check the game odds for the rematch and make our picks, be sure to check out the 2023-24 NBA MVP Betting Odds and our guide to betting on NBA basketball.
Heat vs Bucks
 |
Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -3.0 (-112) | -154 | Un 225 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | +3.0 (-108) | +130 | Ov 225 (-110) |
Milwaukee an elite team?
Damian Lillard scored 31 points against his former team on Sunday as the Bucks overcame a 26-point deficit to down Portland. The win encapsulated how the year has been going for Adrian Griffin’s club. On one hand, they got the victory to improve to 12-5, the fourth-best mark in the NBA. On the other, they almost lost to the 4-12 Trail Blazers.
Milwaukee’s point differential (+2.9) this season isn’t even in the top-ten. However, it’s hard to worry too much about a club with Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Giannis has per game marks of 29.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists while Dame is averaging 25.6 points, 6.3 assists and 4.5 rebounds.
Giannis Antetokounmpo today:
33 PTS – 16 REB – 6 AST – 52% FGDamian Lillard today:
31 PTS – 5 REB – 4 AST – 2 STL pic.twitter.com/Rqgk2ZY3zU— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 26, 2023
Heat finally cool off
Miami had won 10 of 11 before their recent two-game losing skid. Both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo sat out of Saturday’s 112-97 loss to Brooklyn and will be well rested to take on Milwaukee on Tuesday night.
Butler’s scoring is down to 20.7 points per game, his lowest output since the 2019-20 season, but Adebayo is averaging a career-high 22.7 points per game and 10.7 rebounds per game. The Heat will be without sharpshooter Tyler Herro, who has missed most of November with a Grade 2 ankle sprain.
Miami vs Milwaukee
Miami is a 3-point home underdog on Tuesday with the over/under set at 225 points. Erik Spoelstra’s club is 4-1 in the Kaseya Center this season, with a 1-4 record against the spread. The Heat also struggled at home in 2022-23, covering only 41.2% (21-30-2) of their games.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are 4-4 both straight-up and against the spread on the road this season. Last year, they had a 24-18-2 (57.1%) ATS record on the road. Ten of 17 Milwaukee games have gone OVER in 2023-24 and the UNDER has hit in 10 of 17 Miami contests.
Bam Adebayo and Thomas Bryant smoking a blunt on the bench 💨pic.twitter.com/sYROOYmnWo
— NBAĆentel (@TheNBACentel) November 23, 2023
Rivalry resumed
Giannis and Dame combined for 58 points in a 122-114 home win over the Heat on October 30. Miami was playing without two-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo, and on Tuesday, they’ll be missing Herro, who scored a team-high 35 points in the loss.
Miami won both games in the Kaseya Center in last year’s surprising 4-1 playoff defeat of the Bucks. Spoelstra’s squad has also been victorious in their past five regular-season home contests against Milwaukee.
Best Bet
Milwaukee’s added star-power has come at the expense of their defense. Playing in a hostile environment against their rivals on the road, we don’t think they’re ready for the Heat.
Take Miami to cover (+3) and win (+130) at home with the UNDER 225.
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