Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction: Ecuador can edge battle of Tricolors

Matchday three in Group B at the Copa America sees two sides requiring victory to book their place in the quarter-finals meet, as Mexico take on Ecuador at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona in the early hours of Monday morning (01:00) here in the UK.

Everything to play for then, but only one can progress. Who will that be? Here’s my Mexico vs Ecuador predictions.

Mexico vs Ecuador Odds

Mexico are 13/8 to claim the victory that would send them through to the knockout stages while Ecuador – one of just two South American sides not to have won the Copa America – are 8/5 to claim all three points.

The draw – which would likely be enough to send Ecuador through on goal difference – can be backed at 2/1, while a winner in the over 2.5 goals market is 11/8.

Team News

Mexico head coach Jaime Lozano will likely be without captain Edson Alvarez for this crucial final game after the West Ham man limped off in their opening game against Jamaica.

Monterrey holding midfielder Luis Romo came in as his replacement in their loss to Venezuela and he will likely keep his place, while Feyenoord striker Santiago Gimenez will be expected to lead the line for El Tricolour.

The big news for Ecuador head coach Felix Sanchez Bas is that captain Valencia is once again available for selection after serving his one-match ban and will likely return to the starting line-up for this encounter.

This will likely see Kevin Rodriguez return to the substitutes bench, while teenage sensation Kendry Paez, who will join Chelsea in 2025, should keep his place in the attacking midfield after netting against Jamaica.

Ecuador to win @ 8/5

La Tricolor have lost just three of their last 12 matches in all competitions, winning seven, and they should have enough about them to beat a Mexico side struggling for form.

The Mexicans have lost six of their last ten matches and have won just one of their last four meetings with Ecuador, losing two, and so a group stage exit looks likely in Arizona.

Enner Valencia to score anytime @ 9/5

Former West Ham and Everton striker Valencia will likely be back in the mix for Ecuador and the all-time Ecuadorian record goalscorer could be back amongst the goals in this encounter.

Valencia is yet to get off the mark in the United States, but he did notch three goals at the 2022 World Cup, while no player in the top 10 for most goals for La Tricolor has a better goals to game ratio than Valencia with 0.47.

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