• After a doubleheader yesterday, the New York Mets face the rested Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their best-of-three Wild Card series on Tuesday
• Luis Severino starts for the Mets opposite Freddy Peralta for the Brewers
• Below, see the Mets vs Brewers odds, picks, and predictions for Game 1 on Oct. 1st

The New York Mets (89-73, 43-38 away) and Milwaukee Brewers (93-69, 47-34 home) kick off their best-of-three Wild Card series on Tuesday night at American Family Field in Milwaukee at 5:32 pm ET.

Due to Hurricane Helene, the Mets were forced to play a doubleheader against the Braves yesterday, after the other 28 MLB teams had concluded their regular seasons. A split in those two games was enough to earn New York a postseason berth, but it also means their pitching staff enters the Wild Card round considerably more taxed than the Brewers, who would have had a massive bullpen advantage either way. (Milwaukee finished second in the majors with a 3.11 bullpen ERA.)

Luis Severino starts for the Mets in Game 1 against Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. The Mets vs Brewers Game 1 odds are the narrowest of the four Wild Card games on Tuesday’s schedule, but the home side is still a reasonably big favorite.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is currently a -146 moneyline favorite with the Mets coming back as +124 road underdogs in Tuesday’s MLB odds. The total is sitting at 7.5, which is the highest of the four Wild Card games today. Both the Tigers vs Astros odds and Royals vs Orioles odds are sitting at 6.5 while the Braves vs Padres total is 7.0.

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Neither team is given much of a chance in the World Series odds. The Brewers are priced at +2000 (4.76% implied win probability) entering the Wild Card round with the Mets just behind them at +2300 (4.17%).

The Mets and Brewers met in the final full series of the regular season with the Brewers taking two of three at home on Friday (8-4) and Saturday (6-0). The Mets managed to win the series finale on Sunday (5-0), which proved the difference between making a missing the postseason. Overall, the Brewers won five of six against the Mets in the 2024 regular season.

Starting Pitcher Matchup: Severino vs Peralta

Severino was the anchor of an injury-plagued Mets rotation this year. The longtime Yankee logged a team-high 180 innings with a respectable 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

He wasn’t great down the stretch, though, allowing 10 runs over his final 14.0 innings (final three starts) with a 1.358 WHIP in that span. His only start against the Brewers this year, all the way back in March, was also concerning: Severino was tagged for six runs on 11 hits over just 5.0 innings. Only three of the runs were earned, however.

Severino’s career numbers against the current Milwaukee lineup are ugly. In 45 total at-bats, the Brewer hitters have a .333 average and .953 OPS. Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, and Rhys Hoskins have each taken Severino deep once.

Peralta has much better numbers against the lineup he’ll be facing on Tuesday, limiting the New York lineup to a .197 BA and .747 OPS in 76 ABs. The Mets do have five homers off Peralta, though, including two from Jesse Winker and one each from Harrison Bader, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte.

Peralta had a bumpy start to the month of September (six earned runs in 10.0 innings with just seven Ks) but his final three starts of the season were more encouraging: four total runs in 15.1 innings with an electric 21 strikeouts.

His only start against the Mets this season was also in March, when he allowed just one run on one hit and one walk over 6.0 innings with eight Ks.

Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Game 1

I don’t have much concern about the Mets’ hitters being fatigued from all the travel. (Tuesday is their fourth game in three days and also their third plane trip between Atlanta and Milwaukee since Thursday.) I do have ample concern about the New York bullpen though. The Mets finished the regular season with a 4.03 bullpen ERA (17th in the majors) and needed 17.1 innings from their relievers over the last four days.

Given that Peralta comes in with considerably better numbers against the Mets than Severino against the Brewers, I love the Milwaukee moneyline in Game 1.

The Brewers’ moneyline is as short as -150 at some books but is priced at -143 at BetMGM.

NYM vs MIL Game 1 Pick: Brewers moneyline (-143) at BetMGM

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