Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Fornaroli to inspire Victory over former side

The latest edition of the Melbourne derby takes place at AAMI Park on Saturday (KO, 08:45), as Melbourne City take on Melbourne Victory in the Australian A-League Men’s.

City have had the upper hand in recent years, winning five of the last 11 meetings (four draws) and topping the table in each of the previous three regular seasons. Victory also suffered the embarrassment of finishing 11th in 2022/23.

However, roles have reversed somewhat this term. Victory have been battling at the top of the table with Wellington Phoenix for much of the campaign, only recently dropping down to fourth following a five-game winless run, sparked by the departure of their talismanic forward Bruno Fornaroli to the AFC Asian Cup.

Victory’s poor form – one defeat and four draws – pales into insignificance compared to the disastrous scenes witnessed at their rivals, though. City have lost four of their previous five games, conceding nine across their last two, and they sit in seventh, outside the play-offs and six points behind Victory.

Team News

City could make a host of changes following last weekend’s capitulation in Brisbane. Marin Jakolis, Mathew Leckie and Terry Antonis came on as half-time substitutes against the Roar, and the trio will be looking for starting berths this time around, particularly Antonis, who scored a consolation goal.

Marco Tilio, who made his second debut for the club in that game following his loan move from Celtic, is another option in attack, while French defender Samuel Souprayen could make his first appearance since January 12 after recently returning from injury.

New signing Vicente Fernandez could make his debut after arriving from Argentinian side Talleres Cordoba, and Callum Talbot and Nuno Reis are also in the squad after brief absences.

Victory boss Tony Popovic has a fully-fit squad to choose from with Fabian Monge and Chris Ikonomidis back available.

Jason Geria and Nishan Velupillay could come into the starting XI after being demoted to the bench last week, while Salim Khelifi is in line to make his first start for the club after joining on loan from Perth Glory last month.

Match Odds

Melbourne City are 15/8 to win on Saturday and claim bragging rights, with the draw priced at 13/5 and Melbourne Victory at 11/10 for the three points.

Both teams have scored in 14 of Melbourne Victory’s last 17 league games, and it’s 1/2 for BTTS – Yes in this clash.

Melbourne Victory to win and both teams to score – Yes @ 5/2

There have been goals on both sides in the majority of Victory’s games this season, and BTTS – Yes has also been a frequent occurrence in matches featuring City; nine of their league games have seen that land, and three of their last four – and both of their previous games this month – have seen them lose and both teams score.

City appeared to have improved under Aurelio Vidmar following Rado Vidosic’s sacking in November, but they have fallen back into old habits and look devoid of ideas and confidence.

Victory can take advantage of that and pick up just their second win of the calendar year, having drawn the majority (4/6) of their games in 2024.

Bruno Fornaroli to score anytime @ EVS

The veteran forward has been leading the Australia A-League Men’s goalscoring charts for much of the season, and has only recently been caught up by Newcastle Jets’ Apostolos Stamatelopoulos as a result of his participation in the AFC Asian Cup with Australia.

Fornaroli had the chance to return with a bang last weekend and bag his 14th goal of the campaign, but he fluffed his lines from the penalty spot in a 1-0 loss to Macarthur FC.

Nevertheless, Saturday acts as the perfect opportunity to get back on the goalscoring trail against a club he served with such distinction between 2015-19.

City have conceded 30 goals in 16 league games this term, just two fewer than they did across the entire regular 2022/23 season.

Brisbane Roar put five past them last weekend and Perth Glory hit them for four the week prior, so Fornaroli must be licking his lips at the thought of facing this City backline.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.