What happened in London at the General Election?
As elsewhere, London was a story of Labour success and Conservative disaster. Of the 75 Constituencies, Labour won 59 (+10), the Conservatives 9 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 6 (+3) and the remaining seat was won by Jeremy Corbyn standing as an Independent in Islington North.
As for vote share, Labour won 43% (-5), Conservatives 20.5% (-11.5%) and the Liberal Democrats 11% (-4). The Greens won 10%, Reform 9% and the other 6.5% went to Independents and smaller parties including the Workers’ Party who won 1.5% overall.
The swing from Conservative to Labour was a modest 3.25% – much less than in many other parts of the country but London is a complex and multi-layered story.
What we saw was the fragmentation of London politics and we now have five separate political rivalries going on across the capital.
Conservative-Labour: still the main rivalry and particularly so in the northern and southern outer suburbs. Labour remains the main challenger in the seats the Conservatives won but the overall poor result for the Conservatives in the capital shouldn’t disguise some better results with a strong hold in Harrow East and better than average results in parts of Brent. Whether this was due to the work of Susan Hall and her team in Harrow or was a supportive vote in the wealthy Hindu community for Rishi Sunak, time will tell.
Conservative-Liberal Democrat: the Liberal Democrats gained three seats from the Conservatives, capturing both Sutton Borough seats and Wimbledon. Whether the latter presages a wider advance into Merton in 2026 is uncertain – the new Wimbledon constituency gained some strongly pro-Liberal Democrat Wards from Kingston but a solid outcome for Team Davey for all the rest of the capital saw a plethora of lost deposits.
Conservative-Reform: limited to the eastern and south eastern outer suburbs, Reform challenged the Conservatives in Hornchurch & Upminster and polled strongly (though behind Labour) in Old Bexley & Sidcup, Romford and Orpington (among others). Will Reform run candidates in the 2026 locals and campaign actively in their stronger areas in the suburbs?
Labour-Green: Labour swept Inner London winning every seat bar Islington North but in a number of seats in inner eastern and southern London it was the Greens who finished second. It could well be the Greens will emerge as a stronger local force in Boroughs like Lewisham and Hackney in two years.
The Greens polled well in some parts of the capital but are currently a long way from capturing a Council – that might change in 2026.
Labour-Independents: In a few seats such as East Ham and West Ham & Beckton, Labour’s vote share fell sharply and the main recipients were Independents supportive of Palestine who had become estranged from Labour over Gaza but aided and abetted by Momentum members expelled from CLPs. It remains to be seen if Palestine and Gaza will have the salience in 2026. If they do, I expect Councils like Newham to see a number of Independent candidates winning in majority Muslim Wards. If not, the Greens are likely to fill the gap.
Thus, we have what I’m calling the Pentagon of London politics – the five main rivalries. In 2026 we have local elections across the capital.
In 2022, Labour won 42% of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, the LDs 14% and the Greens 12%. Reform didn’t contest the elections to any extent. I’m not going to give my crystal ball a workout on this but suffice it to say, they will be an interesting mid term test of the Starmer Government and the Conservative opposition.
The pre-General Election polling suggested a big win for Labour in the capital – the last London wide poll by Savanta (field work 21st – 26th June) had Labour on 49% and the Conservatives on 19%, Reform on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 6% so a significant miss on Labour and the Greens but with turnout very low in safe Labour seats, I suspect there were many Labour supporters who saw the party winning easily and decided not to bother voting.
On a personal level, I advised the following bets:
Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
I’m pleased to note six won – Croydon East was a bit of a long shot and I made a profit of 14 points on the individual single bets (as you know, the bookies don’t allow multiple bets).
Stodge
