When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team.
Mid-Bedfordshire, which is adjacent to my own seat in Bedford, has been on the cards for a by-election over the past six months with the speculation about Nadine becoming a peer.
Indeed the LDs started canvassing and working there in March and appear to be making this their priority. Many volunteers have been traveling to the area since the news of Nadine’s and BoJo resignations.
The seat has one element that makes it especially appealing to the LDs and that is that the proportion of the electorate who are graduates is about 33% which is well above the national average of 25%. Generally, the more graduates that are in a seat the more chance that the LDs have of taking it.
Although there is no deal between LAB and the LDs it does appear that Starner’s party will be focussing on Boris’s former seat in Uxbridge and Ruislip while Davey’s party will be hoping to add Mid Beds to their by-election haul this parliament.
Selby looks the safest one for the Tories to defend and so far there are no betting exchange markets.
My guess is that the elections will all be held on the same day in July
