La Vuelta Stage 5 Predictions: 12/1 Marit the tip to push Groves and Van Aert

La Vuelta a Espana arrives in one of Spain’s greatest cities on Wednesday as the 177km route takes the riders from Fuente del Maestre to Seville (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

This will be a rare day for the sprinters, with teams unlikely to risk sending breakaway riders up front given the torturous terrains still the come. With that in mind, here are my La Vuelta Stage 5 predictions.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Favouritism for this one was only ever going to be between two. Kaden Groves – the best pure sprinter in the race – is 11/10 (47.6% implied chance) to earn his second win of this year’s Vuelta and sixth overall.

Wout van Aert comes next at 11/8 (42.1%) having surrendered the red jersey to Primoz Roglic on stage four and also come in second behind Groves in the sole intermediate sprint on the way to Pico Villuercas.

Elsewhere, Arne Marit and Pavel Bittner are each 12/1, with Corbin strong and Jon Aberasturi paired on 16/1. Bryan Coquard rounds out the leading hopes at 22/1.

Cycling Odds

There are a few lumps on Wednesday’s parcours but nothing much to write home about. Indeed, none of the climbs are categorised and that makes the undulating first 140km just a pre-cursor to the bonus sprint at La Algaba and then the race to the line in the centre of Seville.

After Tuesday’s epic final few kilometres, it is race favourite Primoz Roglic who wears the maillot rojo on stage five. But the Slovenian shouldn’t figure in the mix come the finish line.

This should come down to Kaden Groves versus Wout van Aert once more. Even on Tuesday it was these two who battled it out for bonus points at the Puerto de Miravete as they focused on the race for the green jersey in a largely brutal stage.

The pair have one win each to their names already, Groves taking stage two on Sunday before Van Aert hit straight back with a victory in the leader’s red colours on Monday. And all the good money will be on one of them racking up a second win in Seville since they are the two outstanding sprint icons in this year’s race.

Kaden Groves @ 11/10

There’s no wizardry about this pick, but that’s because Alpecin-Deceuninck should have all the elements in place to get their Aussie sprint king to the line first.

With few demons in the profile for Wednesday, only the unforeseeable could prevent the lead-out train doing whatever they decide is best when they meet on the team bus before the stage.

And Groves showed with that sprint win over Van Aert on Tuesday that he should have enough to beat his main contender when the chips are down.

Arne Marit E/W @ 12/1

If Van Aert doesn’t finish first, he should finish second, but you’re not getting an 11/8 each-way tip out of me.

Elsewhere, it’s been one hell of a summer for Intermarche-Wanty when it comes to sprinting, with Biniam Girmay’s three stage wins and green jersey success at the Tour de France.

Arne Marit has been their lead sprint option so far at La Vuelta and very nearly came in with a podium place on stage three into Castelo Branco when he was pipped by Jon Aberasturi to third spot behind Van Aert and Groves.

But I think there’s more in the 25-year-old Belgian, and this could be the day when he records a top-three spot for the first time in a Grand Tour.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.