La Vuelta Stage 4 Predictions: Carapaz to be Mr Breakaway once more?

The 2024 edition of La Vuelta a Espana becomes its true self in more ways than one on Tuesday. Not only is stage four the first day of competition in Spain itself, but it is the first of many high-mountain stages on this year’s course (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

The 170.5km from Plasencia to Pico Villuercas include the first two Cat 1 climbs of the race, with the latter one being a 14.6km climb to the finish line. With the climbing specialists set to take the attention, here are my La Vuelta Stage 4 predictions.

La Vuelta Betting Odds 

Primoz Roglic is the favourite to cross the line first in the opening high-mountain stage of this year’s edition. The 34-year-old is 5/2 to win on Pico Villuercas, with Sepp Kuss at 9/1. Richard Carapaz is 14/1 to deliver the goods for EF Education-Easypost, followed by Michael Woods at 16/1 and both Adam Yates and Mattias Skjelmose at 18/1.

Cycling Odds

There are four categorised climbs in total on Tuesday. First up, after around 14km, begins the Cat 2 Puerto de Cabezabellosa. This is a 9.2km trek at an average of 5.4% which eases off slightly halfway through, with the steepest section being a 7.3% gradient over its first kilometre.

Next – from around the 40km mark – comes the race’s first Cat 1, a 13.8km drag up the Alto de Piornal at an average of 5.5%. This one is a far more steady prospect, with a relentless nature all the way up to the top with few notable flatter spots.

Beyond the descent there comes a flat section of around 35km before the Cat 3 Puerto de Miravete is negotiated. This is a shorter climb, totalling 7.9km at the more rider-friendly average gradient of 4.3%.

But all of that is just a taster, really, for the stage finish at the top of the Pico Villuercas, which begins 14.6km from home and boasts an average gradient of 6.1%. That’s just part of the story though, as the final 4.5km includes one-kilometre sections of 11.6%, 14.6% and 11.8% before the relatively minor final 1.6km of around 7%.

It’s a punishing parcours which will surely test the mettle of any of those riders with designs on the maillot rojo.

This should be the day on which we find out whether reigning champion Sepp Kuss is in the sort of form he needs to be to go back-to-back over the next few weeks. The Visma-Lease a Bike star was never expected to win the opening time-trial but has looked a little shy of his best since then too. Tuesday will be his first really big day.

Primoz Roglic should also figure, with the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe star desiring a return to form after he was forced to withdraw from the Tour de France following crashes in consecutive days which left him bruised, battered, and out of serious yellow-jersey contention.

Primoz Roglic @ 5/2

Roglic sure has got something to prove. Having left Visma-Lease a Bike after the uncomfortable feeling of playing third fiddle to Kuss and Jonas Vingegaard at La Vuelta this time last year, he has had a stop-start first season with Red Bull

He placed 10th at Paris-Nice before crashing out while leading the Itzulia Basque Country in the pile-up which also accounted for other big names such as Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel.

On his return he won the GC at the Dauphine but was off the pace at Le Tour before admitting defeat after stage 12.

So there is some unfinished business about this 2024 campaign for the Slovenian, and a fourth Vuelta title would be the perfect way to show any doubters that he still has what it takes.

He’s now a big favourite to finish in red, and this stage is the perfect opportunity for him to work his way into position.

Richard Carapaz E/W @ 14/1

Part of me thinks I ought to go with Kuss, since I’m a big fan of the American and believe he surely will hit his stride before long. But I can’t persuade myself to back Kuss over one of the most likeable figures in the sport in Carapaz.

He recently added the King of the Mountains title at Le Tour to his similar success at the Vuelta two years ago, and showed once more in that final week and a half around France why he’s the perfect breakaway guy and climbing supremo.

In six of 10 stages over that latter stretch of the Tour de France he was in breakaways for anything between 56km and 156km as he showed how much he thrives at the front of the race, even bagging a victory up to the Superdevoluy ski resort in stage 17.

You can’t keep a good man down, and the others might find Carapaz to much to keep up with around this course. At 14/1 and an implied probability of 6.7%, I’m more won over than by Kuss at 9/1.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.