La Vuelta Stage 3 Predictions: Groves at the double, plus a 33/1 podium?
Monday’s Stage 3 of the 2024 Vuelta a Espana brings a chance for the sprinters to follow up Kaden Groves’ win on Sunday with another bunch scrap for the line (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights 20:00).
The Australian denied Wout van Aert a first win in six months in Stage 2, so the Belgian will be after immediate revenge even if he is the one wearing red over the 191.5km between Lousa and Castelo Branco. Here are my La Vuelta Stage 3 predictions.
It’s the same two favourites for stage three as it was on Sunday, but this time with a bit more certainly. Groves is 11/10 to go back-to-back for the second year running at La Vuelta. The Alpecin-Deceuninck rider is followed by the man in red, Van Aert, who is 2/1 to get the job done.
Beyond them, Pavel Bittner of DSM-Firmenich PostNL is 8/1, with Israel Premier Tech’s Corbin Strong 12/1. Bryan Coquard and Arne Marit are 14/1 and 16/1 respectively, with Jon Aberasturi at 25/1. Mathias Vacek and Pau Miquel, who are both 33/1, bring in the likely contenders.
Monday brings us the first climb beyond Cat 4, with the category-two Alto de Teixeira coming 84km into the day’s trek.
There is a bonus sprint at Fundao (139.8km), but that is soon followed by the Cat 4 Alto de Alpedrinha. After that descent comes a fairly flat final 40km in to the finish at Castelo Branco. The roads are pretty windy for the most part, but come the finale there shouldn’t be too many issues for the sprinters.
Sunday’s victory will have been a big boost for Kaden Groves in his bid to retain the Points Classification title this year, and it is hard to look beyond the 25-year-old on a more straightforward sprinters’ day.
Van Aert will doubtless be in amongst it again, and I still believe as I said in my stage two predictions that he is far too classy to keep missing out on victories, but this might be a day to give him a miss.
I was taken with the finishing performances of a couple of lesser lights in Euskatel-Euskadi’s Jon Aberasturi and the young Equipo Kern Pharma rider Pau Miquel.
Neither has ridden a Grand Tour outside of Spain before, with both their UCI ProTeams invited by the ASO to compete once more in their home event.
Both Aberasturi and Miquel figure to be a part of the bunch late on in Castelo Branco
Kaden Groves @ 11/10
I’m going for a Groves double. If I was doubtful over his abilities to win either of stages two and three, it was always going to be Sunday on which I would be worried for him.
But whereas I banked on the peloton being split enough to deny him victory in Ourem, I just see him being far too strong in the inevitable sprint finish on stage three.
He’s got form in Spain too, with Sunday’s success being his fifth at La Vuelta over the years, and I can see him making it six here.
Pau Miquel E/W @ 33/1
For my each-way shout I’m going with one of the invitees in Equipo Kern Pharma’s Miquel.
He finished fourth on Sunday after positioning himself superbly off the back wheel of some of the World Tour’s biggest sprinting names, and with just a slightly better kick could have landed himself at least third spot.
So I’m taking a chance on him going one better 24 hours on, with the ¼ odds offer on the first three places making his 33/1 very attractive. Those odds make him a 2.9% chance to win the stage, but I reckon he’s in with a shout of the top three.
You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.
Share Article
The post La Vuelta Stage 3 Predictions: Groves at the double, plus a 33/1 podium? appeared first on Betfred Insights.
