La Vuelta Stage 17 Predictions: 16/1 Vacek set to pounce after Van Aert crash

It was another dramatic day at La Vuelta a Espana on Tuesday as Wout van Aert crashed out of the race and Ben O’Connor clung on to the red jersey by the narrowest of margins. Now attention turns to Wednesday’s Stage 17 between Arnuero and Santander (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

Van Aert’s abandonment has only served to cement Kaden Groves’ favouritism for this one, but who else is in contention for my La Vuelta Stage 17 predictions?

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Groves is the clear 11/8 favourite to come home first in Santander, with the exit of Van Aert – the other stand-out sprint contender in the field – having handed over the green jersey to the Australian upon exiting the race on Tuesday.

Pavel Bittner of Team dsm-firmenich PostNL is the 6/1 second favourite having already racked up a sprint win into Seville on stage five. Corbin Strong is available at 8/1, with Jhonathan Narvaez 14/1.

Lidl-Trek’s Mathias Vacek is a 16/1 shot, with Kasper Asgreen 18/1 and the trio of Arne Marit, Edoardo Affini and Stefan Kung all 20/1.

Cycling Odds

The 141.5km journey to Santander on Wednesday sees the Vuelta finally take a rest from the constant mountain racing. Even by this race’s bumpy standards, the 2024 route has been incrdibly demanding, but the sprint teams will finally get another shot in this relatively flat day.

It is not entirely pancake-like, though. There are two Category 2 climbs in quick succession at the end of the first half of the day’s parcours. First, the field takes on the Alto de La Estrangueda (5.5km at 8.7%), then after a few hundred metres of descent comes the Alto del Caracol (7.2km at 6.2%).

Thereafter it is largely straightforward, with the final four kilometres being ridden alongside the Bay of Santander. The flamme rouge comes by the Segunda Playa de El Sardinero, with the last corner a few hundred metres from home sending the riders between the Doctor Fleming and Doctor Gonzalez Mesones parks.

That finale is just long enough to allow teams to potentially get their lead-out trains in order, but the last right-hand corner is also just near enough to the finish to possibly cause a bit of chaos.

Sounds perfect!

Kaden Groves @ 11/8

All things being equal, this should be Groves’ day. On man’s misfortune was another’s gain on Stage 16 as Van Aert’s painful exit 48km from home catapulted the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider into the lead in the points classification having previously trailed the Belgian by 109 points.

Groves was magnanimous after inheriting the green jersey on Tuesday night, telling reporters: “I didn’t expect at all to get the green jersey. Wout had such a convincing lead in the points classification. And coming into the race, I knew it would be super likely that he takes the green, not to mention he was leading the polka dots.

“I don’t know the situation, all I know is that he abandoned and it’s a pretty terrible way to wear the green.”

He went on to stress that a breakaway could well compromise his team’s hope of adding a sprint win on Wednesday, but given how long it has been since a classic sprint stage I think Alpecin-Deceuninck will do what they can to keep their guy in control throughout.

Groves pulled off the surprise win on Stage 14 on a far less controllable route for sprinters, so this one shouldn’t throw too many issues his way.

Mathias Vacek E/W @ 16/1

Yes, yes, I have a thing for 16/1 each-way shots! But in Vacek we have a guy who has troubled the podium on a few occasions already in this Grand Tour.

He was second in the opening TT stage out of Lisbon, then pushed Van Aert all the way to the line in Corboda in stage seven.

And when you also throw in the fact he finished fourth in the impromptu sprint race that was Saturday’s medium mountain stage, and one of those who beat him to the line was the now-eliminated Van Aert, and you have a rider in form who is among the very fastest men left in the race.

The Czech has had a really promising first race at this level, and another top-three finish would really top off his effort thus far. The 16/1 odds imply a 5.9% chance of him winning, and that makes him decent value in the each-way market for me.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.