La Vuelta Stage 10 Predictions: 16/1 and 25/1 picks for big day in the mountains
The 2024 Vuelta a Espana heads to Galicia to begin the second week of racing, with Tuesday’s Stage 10 incorporating four categorised climbs on a demanding 160km course from Ponteareas to Baiona (live on Eurosport 1 from 12:00 BST, highlights at 20:00).
La Vuelta stage 10 predictions are not the easiest to tackle given the crazy nature of the tour around Spain and Portugal so far, with Ben O’Connor and Primoz Roglic just two of a number of potential winners at this point.
Roglic is the favourite to take to the podium at the end of Stage 10, priced at 7/1 to arrive home first of the third time in this La Vuelta. Wout van Aert (8/1) is second favourite.
Next up there are four riders at 16/1. UAE Team Emirates’ Brandon McNulty – who wore red after his time-trial success in Stage 1 – sits alongside his team-mate Marc Soler, Lotto Dstny’s Lennert van Eetvelt and Tour de France polkadot jersey winner Richard Carapaz.
Jay Vine, Jhonatan Narvaez and Michael Woods can all be backed at 20/1 apiece.
Stage 10 will be barely 12km old when the tough stuff begins with a 15.4km climb up the Cat 2 Alto de Fonfria at an average gradient of 4.2%.
There is then a stretch of more serene riding before the mountains in quick succession which will really set apart the best from the rest. After 98km there starts a 6.3km rise at 5.5% up to the top of the Cat 3 Alto de Vilachan.
Straight from the descent of that comes another incline at the Alto de Mabia, a 6km category-two climb at an average 5.7%.
The toughest is still to come though, as once the stage’s sole intermediate sprint has been negotiated, the Alto de Mougas begins. This is a Category 1 9.9km climb at an average 6%, but which has a 15% section as part of a brutal early four or five kilometres.
The descent gives way to a largely flat finish, but by that time there should only be the true climbers and breakaway hopes left in contention.
Richard Carapaz @ 16/1
We’re not quite in ‘Throw the names of all the riders in the air and see where they fall’ territory, but that might not be far off.
Nobody really gave Ben O’Connor a hope before stage six, then he finished the day in red with a massive 4:51 lead. Two days on he was a long second-favourite to Primoz Roglic after losing more than a minute of that advantage.
Another 24 hours on, the Slovenian was the one facing all the questions after being out-sprinted by the race leader on a day when Adam Yates had left the entire field in his wake from 58 kilometres out.
All of which is to say, La Vuelta is a really tough one to call right now, and Stage 10’s parcours makes Tuesday’s racing equally unpredictable.
One thing that can normally be guaranteed when there are four such mountains involved is a surge from Carapaz, and while it’s tempting to back him on my each-way bet to go safe, this is just the kind of stage where the Ecuadorian could come into his own.
Giulio Ciccone E/W @ 25/1
Another former Tour de France polkadot king, Ciccone loves climbing mountains and kind of owes us a really big performance at the Vuelta.
He’s not yet featured at the pointy end of a stage, but the route this year kind of plays into the hands of riders of his style. This is one of many which could interest him, and having not delivered so far he could well find himself tempted to have a tilt off the back of the rest day.
The odds imply a 3.8% probability of him winning this one, so a 1-2-3 finish is not considered too likely judging by the price but I rank him as a fair hope.
You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.
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