Chasing football immortality

The Kansas City Chiefs will make history if they can cement the NFL’s first-ever championship three-peat by winning the Super Bowl.

the league’s dominant power has its sights set much further down the road

The 2024 NFL season gets underway on Thursday with the Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. While the game will mark a welcome return of gridiron action, the league’s dominant power has its sights set much further down the road.

Will the Chiefs do the unthinkable and win their third straight Super Bowl? Here’s what history—and Vegas—have to say.

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl odds

There have only been three franchises to make three straight Super Bowls: the Miami Dolphins in 1971-73, the Buffalo Bills in 1990-93, and the New England Patriots in 2016-2018.

As we mentioned, none of these teams succeeded in winning three straight Super Bowls. In the case of the Bills, they made and lost four straight Super Bowls, forever dressing themselves in championship infamy. 

they still got the job done

The Chiefs seem to have a better chance to do the unthinkable than their predecessors. Not only did they already win back-to-back chips, but the second and most recent Super Bowl came in what was supposed to be a “down” year. The roster was not as strong as it had been offensively, Patrick Mahomes only ranked 33rd in air yards per attempt, and the running game was in the bottom half for NFL teams—but they still got the job done.

Mahomes and company head into the new year with most of their championship pieces intact. They also added playmakers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie wideout Xavier Worthy, which should add more verticality and explosiveness to their attack.

FanDuel, the nation’s leading sportsbook, has the Chiefs as a +550 favorite to win the upcoming Super Bowl. That equals a 15.4 percent implied chance and is just ahead of the San Francisco 49ers, whom they beat in the last Super Bowl and are at +600 (14.3 percent implied chance).

But while the Chiefs may be in the driver’s seat of their own fate, they still have to overcome history.

History predicts Chiefs Super Bowl chances

Miami Dolphins (1971-73)

The Dolphins won the Super Bowl in 1972 and 1973. They beat Washington 14-7 in ‘72 and the Minnesota Vikings 24-7 in ‘73, earning their franchise its first championships in back-to-back years.

Miami also reached the Super Bowl in the ‘71 season, though it fell to the Dallas Cowboys 24-3. Roger Staubach led the way for Dallas with 119 yards and two touchdowns, while Duane Thomas ran for 95 yards and a TD.

The Fins returned to the Super Bowl in 1982 and 1984, though they lost both times to Washington and the 49ers.

Buffalo Bills (1990-94)

The Bills are the only team in league history to make four straight Super Bowls, and improbably, they lost them all. They also did not go to the Super Bowl before or after that four-year stretch.

the only Super Bowl decided by one point

The first loss is considered a curse in Buffalo. Kicker Scott Norwood missed a 47-yard field goal with 0:08 remaining and the Bills lost to the New York Giants 20-19 in the only Super Bowl decided by one point. 

Buffalo then lost to Washington 24-37, Dallas 17-52, and Dallas again 13-30 in the next three Super Bowls despite winning more than 76 percent of their regular-season games. The furthest they’ve been since then was the 2020 AFC Championship, where they lost to the Chiefs 24-38.

New England Patriots (2016-18)

The Patriots would probably win the award for the wildest three-year stretch in the NFL playoffs. Their run to three straight Super Bowls started out with a bang as they came back from a 28-3 halftime deficit against the Atlanta Falcons to win 34-28 in overtime in what is considered the greatest Super Bowl comeback ever.

They then seemed to have another title locked up after MVP frontrunner Carson Wentz went down with a knee injury, and career backup Nick Foles was slated to start for the Eagles in the Super Bowl. However, Foles went for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, and the Eagles improbably won 41-33 despite Tom Brady’s best efforts.

The Pats found themselves back on the big stage in 2018 against the highest-scoring team in the league, the Los Angeles Rams. New England allowed 28 and 31 points in its first two playoff games, but shut the water off and beat L.A. 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.

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