Allan Lichtman, whose model successfully predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections, has made a preliminary projection that Kamala Harris will win the Presidential election in November, 2024.
I agree with his assessment. However, I think there are a few things that he misses in his preliminary analysis. First: The polls. According to Fox News, Harris leads in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The national polls, reported by TheHill.com, show Harris closing but slightly behind the twice-impeached failed insurrectionist with 34 Felony convictions.
Lichtman’s model, which he developed with Vladimir Keels-Borok in 1981, reviews 13 socioeconomic issues, Lichtman calls them keys, that impact Presidential elections. Since 1981, the candidate who has 8 or more of these 13 keys has generally won.
Lichtman gives Harris: 8 keys, I give her 12. His model and the keys are described here, in USA Today, on July 26, 2024. Before I detail the keys and Lichtman’s current analysis for 2024, a side track to the keys of 2020, and where Biden and Trump landed. I’m not sure how Lichtman saw it, but I give Biden either a 10 to 3 advantage or a 9 to 4 advantage.
- 1. Midterm Gains: Biden. Democrats gained in the House in the 2018 midterms.
- 2. No Primary Contest: Trump.
- 3. Incumbent seeking re-election: Trump.`
- 4. No major third party challenge: Trump.
- 5. Strong Short-Term Economy: Biden. With Trump in the White House unemployment was sky high. And then there was COVID-19.
- 6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Biden. See #5. Or try to forget COVID-19.
- 7. Major Policy Changes: Tossup. Trump drastically changed systems particularly the judiciary, and while he has consistently bragged about ending 50 years of precedent in Roe V Wade, and appointed Aileen Cannon, who threw out Independent Counsel precedent dating to the 1980’s, but these changes are spectacularly unpopular.
- 8. No Social Unrest: Biden. The protests against Trump during his Presidency started with his inauguration. He himself led the insurrection deemed protests of Jan. 6, 2020.
- 9. No Scandal: Biden. Trump scandals are legendary.
- 10. No Foreign / Military Failure: Biden. Trump decimated American standing globally and tried to diminish NATO. It is almost as if Vladimir Putin had an ally, a useful idiot, or a Manchurian Candidate, in the White House.
- 11. Major Foreign / Military Success: Biden. Trump did preside over the Abraham accords, but those were minor.
- 12. Charismatic Incumbent: Biden. Trump’s charismatic appeal was limited to his base.
- 13, Uncharismatic Challenger: Biden. Either Biden was charismatic in 2020, or simply was the leader of the successful movement to “Dump Trump.”
Regarding the 2024 election …
Key 1: Midterm Gains: Lichtman: “Trump,” I concur.
But slightly. The GOP won the House in 2022, but by a narrow margin. However, the Democrats still control the Senate, and won more races than they were expected to.
Key 2: No Primary Contest – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
Trump faced challenges from Niki Haley, Ron DiSantis, and others. Biden essentially faced no challenges. When, on Sunday, July 21, he withdrew and endorsed Harris, within days, all of his pledged delegates went to her, along with the enthusiastic support of essentially all of his supporters. This is dramatically different from 1968, where Humphrey was nominated despite the challenges of RFK and Eugene McCarthy, and 1980, where Senator Ted Kennedy mounted a serious challenge to incumbent Jimmy Carter.
Key 3: Incumbent seeking re-election: Furman: “Harris.”
Neither candidate is technically the incumbent but Harris is an incumbent Vice President and she is running with the endorsement of and nomination by the incumbent. While she is running against a former incumbent, he:
- Lost to the current President when he ran as the incumbent
- Was impeached twice, first for abuse of power, second for trying to seize power in a coup.
- Has been convicted on 34 felony counts and various other crimes.
- Was on trial for stealing Top Secret documents relating to US National Security
- Was on trial for trying to subvert the election.
Key 4: No major third party challenge – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
According to TheHill.com, here, as of July 28, 2024, Trump is leading at 43.6% over Harris, at 41.5%, and Kennedy, 4.8%.” (See above)
Third parties, such as Pat Buchanon in 1992, and Ralph Nader in 2000, historically count against the incumbent party.
As noted in the USA Today article. “‘They’re a sign of discontent with the way the nation is being governed,’ Lichtman said. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to achieve 5% of the vote to turn this key, and Lichtman says his polling ahead of November would need to stabilize at 10%. Lichtman said it’s possible but unlikely that RFK Jr. could achieve those percentages.”
Key 5: Strong Short-Term Economy – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
We are not in a recession. Gasoline prices are dropping, at the moment. Unemployment is low.
Key 6: Strong Long-Term Economy – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
Real economic growth exceeds that of the previous administration, that of VP Harris’ challenger.
Key 7: Major Policy Changes – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
As noted in the USA Today article, “A significant change from the previous administration or a truly historic policy change like the New Deal. “Clearly, policy under Joe Biden in virtually every realm has been fundamentally different from that of the previous administration.”
Key 8: No Social Unrest – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
There were major demonstrations against Trump from the day of his inauguration.
There have been demonstrations against Israel, mostly on college campuses, but also in New York City, Washington, DC, and elsewhere. These, probably being financed by Iran or Qatar, are not significant. While we can expect demonstrations at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, 2024, they will not have widespread popular support.
Key 9: No Scandal – Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
Trump was one scandal after another. Begining with his overcharging the American people when he and his Secret Service detail stayed at his clubs and hotels. Continuing when he tried to steal Top Secret documents related to US National Security. Including after his term ended when he staged a coup. And, tragically his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting people drink bleach, campaigning while personally sick with the virus, debating then Vice-President Biden while sick – and exposing him.
Key 10: No Foreign / Military Failure: Furman: “Biden / Harris.”
Biden’s awkward withdrawal from Afghanistan was not a major military failure. The military failure of Afghanistan was George W. Bush’s.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the attacks on Israel by Hamas on October 7 and October 8 by Hezbollah, all of which are at the direction of Iran, are terrible and tragic. However, these are not military failures on the part of President Biden and VP Harrisl
Key 11: Major Foreign / Military Success: Furman: “Biden / Harris.”
Trump for the Abraham Accords, Biden/Harris for the US response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and the US response to the Iran / Hamas attack on Israel.
Key 12: Charismatic Incumbent. Lichtman: “Harris,” I concur.
Key 13: Uncharismatic Challenger – Furman: “Biden / Harris.”
Trump is charismatic within the Republican Party but is not gaining ground with independent or unaffiliated voters.
As Biden would say, “Here’s the deal.” It’s reasonable to consider Harris the incumbent. She is the sitting Vice President. She didn’t gain the nomination in a contested Primary battle. The incumbent President, who gained the nomination in a virtually uncontested Primary battle, was the candidate ontil Sunday, July 21, when he announced that he decided not to run, and nominated her. This gives her the incumbancy, and Lichtman’s Key 3.
Similarly, while his moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and work on the Abraham Accords, the treaties between Israel and various Arab countries should be considered a foreign policy success, Trump’s statements regarding Russia and his phone call to Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy amount to spectacular foreign policy failures.
Biden and Harris, with their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Iran / Hamas attacks on Israel have foreign policy / military successes. And no major foreign policy / military failures. This gives her keys 10 and 11, as well.
And she is incredibly charismatic, appealing to Democrats, women, young people. Considering her the incumbent gives her Key 12.
Thus, I assign 12 keys to Harris: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, & 13.
In addition, based on the Democrats strong showing in 2022, and in various other elections since 2020, Key 1, “Midterm Gains,” can be considered a tossup.
