Irish Open 2024 Tips: Six for glory at County Down

The “Back Nine” of this DPWT season moves on to Northern Ireland this week for the Irish Open, and it’s a welcome return to links golf for the event, as Rory McIlroy and co tackle the exalted Royal County Down Golf Club for the first time since 2015.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley’s Irish Open Predictions, featuring six picks ranging from 35/1 to 175/1!

Narrowly denied by Thriston Lawrence in a playoff at the Omega European Masters in 2022, it was perhaps fitting that Matt Wallace needed to come through another playoff to gain redemption at Crans-sur-Sierre last week.

He led by four strokes at the halfway point, after a best-of-the-week 62 in round two and battled well in the brutally difficult, windy conditions on Saturday to maintain the same advantage entering Sunday’s final round. However, he laboured in the easier scoring conditions on Sunday, letting many players back into the event and following a fine birdie at the 18^th, playing partner, Alfredo Garcia-Heredia of Spain, booked his spot in a playoff against the Englishman.

The Spaniard was chasing what would’ve been an unexpected tour breakthrough for the 42-year-old, but it wasn’t to be. Wallace showed his class by hitting his approach on the first playoff hole to around 8ft and after sinking the birdie putt, he recorded an emotional first DP World Tour win since 2018.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Irish Open is one of the oldest national championships in the game, having first been held in 1927. It took place regularly from then up until being cancelled in 1954 and only returned to the schedule, on the then newly-formed European Tour, in 1975.

A mainstay on the tour ever since, it is a trophy on which many of the biggest stars of European golf have had their name adorned.

Nothing showcases that more than the names of the most successful players in the event’s history, with Seve Ballesteros (1983, 1985, 1986), Sir Nick Faldo (1991, 1992, 1993), Bernhard Langer (1984, 1987, 1994) and Colin Montgomerie (1996, 1997, 2001) all tied on three wins apiece.

Esteemed players such as Jon Rahm (2017, 2019) and Ian Woosnam (1988, 1989) have recorded two wins, and the prestige of the event is further enhanced by victories for major winners: Rory McIlroy (2016), Shane Lowry (2009), Padraig Harrington (2007), Sergio Garcia (1999) and Jose Maria Olazabal (1990).

Last five winners:

• 2023 (The K Club)

Winner: Vincent Norrman (-14); runner-up: Hurly Long (-13)

• 2022 (Mount Juliet)

Winner: Adrian Meronk (-20); runner-up: Ryan Fox (-17)

• 2021 (Mount Juliet)

Winner: Lucas Herbert (-19); runner-up: Rikard Karlberg (-16)

• 2020 (Galgorm Castle)

Winner: John Catlin (-10); runner-up: Aaron Rai (-8)

• 2019 (Lahinch)

Winner: Jon Rahm (-16); runners-up: Andy Sullivan, Bernd Wiesberger (-14)

Sweden’s Vincent Norrman completed a brilliant final round comeback to claim the title last year for his first pro success on European soil. Following on from countryman, Ludvig Aberg achieving a similar feat the previous week in the European Masters. He started the final round six shots off the lead in 21^st but rattled through the field with a closing 65 to beat overnight leader, Hurly Long by one stroke.

Norrman returns this week but will need to overcome a severely poor run of form to become the first player to successfully defend the title since Colin Montgomerie in 1997.

THE COURSE

The Irish Open rarely stays in one place too long and is back on the links at the world-renowned Royal County Down Golf Club, after four years on parkland courses. It’s only the second time the event will have been staged here in the European/DP World Tour era.

That one previous edition took place in 2015 and saw the elements cause havoc. Huge outsider, Soren Kjeldsen took the prize, beating Eddie Pepperell and Bernd Wiesberger in a playoff after the three players finished tied on -2.

Regularly ranking among the best golf courses not only in the UK but in the world, it is a surprise that it has still never hosted the Open Championship. However, it has staged several high profile amateur events, including the 1970 and 1999 Amateur Championships, the 2007 Walker Cup and most recently, it hosted the 2017/18 editions of the Irish Amateur Open Championship.

Located at the foot of the spectacular Mountains of Mourne on the east coast of Northern Ireland, this stunning course was first designed by George Baillie and opened in 1889. Several people have worked on it in the intervening years, including Harry Vardon and Harry Colt, though it is Old Tom Morris who is recognised as having the biggest impact on the course we see today.

This par 71 measures in at 7186 yards and possesses 11x par 4s (337-483 yards), 4x par 3s (144-229 yards) and 3x par 5s (525-548 yards).

The holes on this undulating course are framed by towering, natural sand dunes that are strewn with thick gorse and heather. It is famed for its strikingly rugged “bearded” bunkers, that are lined with marram, red fescue and heather. They strategically litter many a fairway, plus engulf several putting surfaces.

The majority of the holes dogleg and the fairways are predominantly narrow, barring a few with more generous landing areas. Some force players to lay back off the tee due to the severe bottlenecking of the short grass and require many a blind drive, which unnerves those that tee it up.

The fast and fiendishly-breaking greens vary in size, with some tiny and others large, and most long and narrow in shape. They sit in hollows surrounded by the dunes, are largely crowned and feature shaved run-offs into tightly-mown chipping areas. Whilst of the abundant greenside bunkering, numerous sit well away from the greens, punishing players with those unenviable mid to long-length bunker shots.

Memorable holes arrive at every turn and there are birdie chances, with all of the par 5s reachable in two and the potentially drivable 337-yard par 4 16^th. However, the 4^th and 9^th holes are widely regarded as the standouts.

The 229-yard 4^th is the longest par 3 on the course. It prompts players to hit a downhill tee-shot over a gathering of gorse, into a narrow green that is surrounded by 10 bunkers.

The front nine finishes with the 483-yard par 4 9^th. Here, players will hit a blind tee-shot over a mound that drops around 60ft to the narrow, angled fairway on the other side. As players reach the top of said mound, they will be treated to one of the most spectacular views in the game before facing a difficult approach into a well bunkered green.

I’m excited to see this terrific old championship return to the links this week and it will be a real pleasure to again witness this magnificent venue in action.

THE WEATHER

As always, we need the conditions to play their part to provide true links conditions and we look set for a bit of everything this week.

Temperatures will be relatively cool throughout the week and there will be a constant breeze on show, with gusts reaching highs of 40mph on Saturday.

The event will be bookended by dry, sunny weather on Thursday and Sunday, though it is forecast to rain in the middle rounds, which should make that blustery Saturday even more challenging.

KEY STATS

• SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling
• SG: Putting
• SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy
• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation
• Par 5 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

Players will need to do most things to a high standard this week, especially with those potentially troublesome conditions on the way. However, getting to grips with these devilish green and greenside challenges will be imperative.

The long game will too have to be on point, not only in approach into these well defended greens but strong drivers will be favoured. Indeed, it was notable how many straight hitters fared well in that 2015 edition, with winner, Soren Kjeldsen all about accuracy and other top-10 finishers such as Eddie Pepperell, Thongchai Jaidee and Max Kieffer of a similar ilk.

Additionally, on a course where it’s easy to get in trouble, it’s important to make the most of the scoring chances on the par 5s. They’re by no means easy, possessing some of the narrowest fairways on the course but with all three measuring in at under 550 yards, they should be reachable for most in the field.

Finally, as we saw with that 2015 winning score of -2, this course is less about making birdies and more about keeping bogeys off the card. Therefore, bogey avoidance looks a relevant stat this week.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Away from the stats and the most important element in predicting success is to look at those who have previously performed well on the links, as there really is no substitute for those quality experiences at this organic brand of golf.

This means that form in the Open Championship, recent Scottish Opens and previous editions of the Irish Open on links courses – most recently in 2017/18/19 – will be vital. Whilst we can also look towards the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – an event played on some of the most iconic links courses in the UK – along with the 2019 British Masters and 2022 Cazoo Classic, which were both played at Hillside.

Further to these, form in the Middle East often transfers well to links golf due to the exposed nature of the courses and the firm, sandy turf. The Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club is a standout, having seen many Open Championship performers go well and I’d also look at current Abu Dhabi Championship host, Yas Links.

Finally, the SDC Championship in South Africa at St Francis Links has featured several links specialists near the top of the leaderboard, and I’d also check out the 2021-2023 editions of the KLM Open, which were played at the linksy Bernardus Golf.

THE FIELD

Rory McIlroy is back at his home open for the second year on the spin and is the top-ranked player in the field at #3 in the world. He’s joined by a further four from the top-50, in the shape of Robert MacIntyre (#16), Aaron Rai (#22), Shane Lowry (#32) and Nicolai Hojgaard (#49). There are another nine from the top-100, including both Thomas Detry and Ryan Fox returning to DPWT action.

McIlroy and Lowry are part of the seven-strong group of former winners, accompanied by Vincent Norrman (2023), John Catlin (2020), Soren Kjeldsen (2015), Ross Fisher (2010) and Padraig Harrington (2007).

Seamus Power strengthens the Irish challenge along with current #32 amateur, Max Kennedy. Also, watch out for a couple of hugely talented, in-form Danes, with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen playing his first event since earning an automatic promotion from the Challenge Tour, following his third win of the year last week and Frederik Kjetterup, who has set the PGA Tour Americas alight since turning pro just a few months ago, winning three times in nine starts on the tour.

Irish Open Odds

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SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 11/2, Shane Lowry 11/1, Aaron Rai 14/1, Robert MacIntyre 16/1, Rasmus Hojgaard 20/1, Seamus Power 25/1

We saw how this test can find out even some of the best players back in 2015 and with those forecast conditions likely to again make things difficult, I have decided to swerve the very top of the betting. For all I thought Aaron Rai looked a great fit for the challenge, it’s very hard to take him at the price considering he could get unlucky with a tough draw and have next to no chance of winning.

Instead, I’m going to go back to the well with Bernd Wiesberger, who was 2^nd when the Irish Open last visited Royal County Down and having been among the best players in the brutal Saturday conditions last week, we know his game is sharp enough to handle whatever the course throws at him.

1.5 pts Bernd Wiesberger each-way (1/5 – 6 places) @ 35/1 

Wiesberger finished 22^nd last week to record his 12^th top-25 finish in 16 starts this season. It was another week in which he failed to go low enough to contend but I was very encouraged by how he handled the strong winds on Saturday, with his 1-over 71 the joint-fifth best score of the day.

He again impressed with his approach play there, an area in which he now ranks 6^th on tour, and he is also 2^nd in greens-in-regulation. Possessing a superb touch around-the-greens, ranking 3^rd and showing some improvement with the putter, this straight driver is a great statistical fit.

Despite his consistently high-quality golf, the Austrian is lacking birdies, which has ultimately hindered his chances in some of the lower scoring events. He won’t face that problem here and ranking 2^nd on tour in bogey avoidance, he should relish the conditions should they get super tough.

Wiesberger finished 2^nd here back in 2015 and has bundles of likeable comp form. He is a former winner of the Scottish Open – taking the title in 2019 – and recorded another Irish Open runner-up finish on a links course at Lahinch in 2019, along with top-5 finishes at the Dunhill Links and in Qatar.

Though he’s been somewhat of a frustrating follow, it’s hard to ignore him while he’s producing some of his best golf of the last seven years and at a much bigger price than last week, I just couldn’t leave him out here.

1.25 pts Alex Fitzpatrick each way (1/5 – 8 places) @ 45/1 

Alex Fitzpatrick has found some of his best play of the year in recent weeks and possessing a strong piece of form at Royal County Down from his amateur days, he can build on these recent performances to record a first DPWT win.

Fitzpatrick has looked good for most of the year and produced his best effort of the season when 4^th in the Scandinavian Mixed in June, though his best sequence of results has come over his last three starts. It began with a 6^th-place finish in the Czech Masters and following finishing 12^th in the British Masters two weeks ago, he again finished 6^th in last week’s European Masters.

For what he lacks in approach, he makes up for in other areas, ranking 7^th in scrambling and 29^th OTT, whilst he’s also been putting much better of late, gaining strokes in three of his last four starts. He knows how to keep bogeys off his card, ranking 20^th in bogey avoidance and ranking in the same spot in par 5 scoring, he has the skillset to take advantage of the most scoreable holes in Northern Ireland.

Fitzpatrick finished 4^th here in the Irish Amateur back in 2018 and has continued to perform well in the country since turning pro, finishing 2^nd at Galgorm Castle last year. His 17^th-place finish in the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool is an encouraging indication of his suitability to links golf and it would come as no surprise to see him earn his breakthrough win on this type of setup.

1 pt Romain Langasque each way (1/5 – 8 places) @ 50/1

Romain Langasque continues to hit the ball well and if able to swiftly bounce back from his poor putting display at Crans-sur-Sierre, the 2015 Amateur Championship winner would look a big price to contend.

We were on Langasque two starts ago as he finished 2^nd in the Danish Golf Championship. This was the latest of a collection of strong performances this year, with him also finishing 2^nd in the Soudal Open, 3^rd in the elite Scottish Open and 5^th in India. Although he missed the cut last week, he struck it nicely and was maybe a little rusty having skipped the previous week, following his opening 72 with a 68 in round two to narrowly miss out by one.

As mentioned, the putter was an issue there, though he had looked good on the greens in recent months and ranks 49^th on tour this season with the club. His all-round game has been much improved in recent weeks, over which time he’s been especially strong with his irons, ranking 17^th over his last 20 rounds and ranking 31^st in bogey avoidance, he has the required assets to perform here.

In the year this event was last played at Royal County Down, Langasque won the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie. He has continued to show a liking for the links in the pro game, making 3/4 cuts in the Open Championship and having twice finished 3^rd in the Scottish Open, including a couple of months ago in that star-studded renewal, he made plenty of appeal at the price.

1 pt Matthew Jordan each way (1/5 – 8 places) @ 60/1

Links expert, Matthew Jordan recorded his second straight 10^th-place finish in The Open at Royal Troon back in July and as another player with positive experience of this course from his amateur career, he can be among the main contenders this week.

Jordan is playing the best golf of his career in 2024, as he continues the search for that elusive breakthrough victory. He’s had seven top-20 finishes, including three top-10s, which came courtesy of a 4^th-place finish in the Kenya Open, 5^th in the Soudal Open and the latest was that 10^th in the Open Championship.

The reason for these results has been the upturn he’s seen with his ball-striking, ranking 20^th off-the-tee and 28^th in approach on the DPWT this season. He showed how well he can adapt his long game to this brand of golf back in July, ranking 9^th in ball-striking on a tough week at Royal Troon.

Jordan’s amateur career was littered with quality links performances, including victories in the 2017 St Andrews Links Trophy and 2018 Lytham Trophy. Whilst he was 4^th here in the Irish Amateur in 2017. Those last two Open Championship performances further emphasise just how comfortable the Merseyside man feels when he plays these famous old venues, and I’d expect another bold links showing this week.

1 pt Sami Valimaki each way (1/5 – 8 places) @ 70/1

Sami Valimaki’s two Middle East wins highlight his potential at this style of golf and after looking good when initially returning to DPWT action in the Czech Masters, he is a big price to be among the frontrunners at Royal County Down.

Valimaki found the going a little tough at times during his rookie season on the PGA Tour this year, though there were a few bright spots. His best finish came when 2^nd in the Mexico Open all the way back in February and is quite a helpful piece of form in relation to this week, as it was played on the type of open and exposed venue he’s typically excelled.

He performed well over the first couple of days of the Olympics back at the start of August, before dropping down over the weekend and followed that with a 12^th-place finish in the Czech Masters four weeks ago. Though we will have to forgive him a disappointing missed cut at The Belfry on his latest start.

While not up to its usual standard, the Finn has putted well this year but it’s his quality around-the-greens that I’m keen on this week, an area in which he ranks 8^th in this field over the last three months. In addition, he’s driving the ball straighter than ever so far in 2024 and hasn’t had to sacrifice a great deal of length to achieve this.

Both of Valimaki’s DPWT wins have come on exposed “linksy” courses in the Middle East, winning the Oman Open in 2020 and he claimed the Qatar Masters in Doha last year. He’s finished 22^nd and 6^th in the Dunhill Links the last two years, hit the top-20 on his only visit to Hillside and with a top-25 in the 2022 Scottish Open in tough, blustery conditions further emphasising his suitability to this test, there was a lot to like about his chances this week.

1 pt Marcus Kinhult each way (1/5 – 8 places) @ 175/1

Marcus Kinhult has found some form in the last two-and-a-bit months, where his putter has started to fire, and he’s started to find more fairways. As a sneakily good links performer, the Swede can go well at a big price.

Kinhult has hit the top-25 three times over his last seven starts. He recorded his best finish of the year when 2^nd in the KLM Open, at the somewhat links-like The International golf club at the end of June and has finished 12^th in the Czech Masters and 23^rd in the British Masters across his last three starts.

Barring his iron play, most areas of his game have improved recently. He ranks 8^th in this field on the greens over the last three months and is starting to find many more fairways than he was earlier in the year. Something he’ll need to continue this week.

Kinhult is another former winner of the Lytham Trophy, picking up that title in 2015. He has an excellent record at Hillside, winning the British Masters there in 2019 and returned to finish 3^rd in the 2022 Cazoo Classic. Two 3^rd-place finishes in Qatar don’t harm his chances, nor does a 6^th-place finish in the 2020 Scottish Open and if we’re to get another big price Scandi taking the title at Royal County Down, there’s plenty to suggest he may just be the man.

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