• We’ve made our Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings prediction for Sunday Night Football
• The latest IND vs MIN odds favor the Vikings by 5.5 points at home
• Read below for Colts vs Vikings prediction, odds and expert picks

The Indianapolis Colts (4-4) travel to U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-2) in a massive Week 9 matchup on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses, with the Colts falling 23-20 to Houston last week and the Vikings dropping their last two games after a 5-0 start.

The Colts enter with a quarterback change, as veteran Joe Flacco takes over for the benched Anthony Richardson. Meanwhile, the Vikings look to get back on track at home behind Sam Darnold and a potent passing attack.

Here is a look at our Colts vs Vikings prediction, along with the betting lines for Sunday Night Football.

Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

The Colts vs Vikings odds show Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite, meaning they need to win by six or more points to cover the spread. The Vikings have a 71.4% implied win probability based on the moneyline odds.

This line has seen some movement since opening. The Vikings were initially installed as 6.5-point favorites, but the spread has dropped a full point to 5.5. The quarterback change in Indianapolis and Minnesota’s recent struggles likely contributed to this shift.

The total has held steady at 46.5 points. With Joe Flacco taking over for the Colts and Sam Darnold leading a potent Vikings passing attack, oddsmakers seem to expect a moderately high-scoring affair.

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Odds as of November 2, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to bet on Colts-Vikings.

Colts Betting Analysis

The Colts enter this game with a 4-4 record, coming off a narrow 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans. In a surprising move, head coach Shane Steichen announced that veteran quarterback Joe Flacco will start over Anthony Richardson, who struggled mightily last week.

Indianapolis has been one of the most profitable teams against the spread this season, boasting an impressive 7-1 ATS record. However, their straight-up record of 4-4 indicates they’ve been competitive in close games without always coming out on top.

Best NFL teams against the spread this season

Colts 7-1 ATS
Lions 6-1 ATS
Commanders 6-1-1 ATS
Broncos 6-2 ATS
Steelers 6-2 ATS
Chiefs 5-2 ATS
Vikings 5-2 ATS
Bears 4-2-1 ATS
Cardinals 5-3 ATS
Bills 5-3 ATS pic.twitter.com/bBlNvz7v3G

— John Ewing (@johnewing) October 29, 2024

The Colts’ offense ranks 19th in points per game (21.9) and 17th in total yards (326.0). Jonathan Taylor leads the ground game with 454 yards and five touchdowns, while Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are the top receiving threats.

Defensively, Indianapolis has struggled, allowing 26.5 points per game (28th in NFL). They’ll face a tough test against Minnesota’s high-powered passing attack, especially with a vulnerable pass defense allowing 7.1 yards per attempt.

Vikings Betting Analysis

The Vikings come into Week 9 with a 5-2 record, looking to bounce back from consecutive losses to Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams. Despite the recent setbacks, Minnesota has been solid against the spread, covering in five of their seven games this season.

Sam Darnold leads the Vikings’ offense, which ranks 7th in scoring at 26.9 points per game. Justin Jefferson remains the top receiving threat with 646 yards and five TDs, while Aaron Jones paces the ground game with 501 yards and two scores.

Justin Jefferson career stats in the month of November:

2x Player of the Month
13 Games played
77 Receptions
1,325 Yards
9 Touchdowns

Welcome to the month of Justin Jefferson. pic.twitter.com/6PZZDdIAYY

— JJetasMuse (@JJetasMuse) November 2, 2024

Defensively, Minnesota has been opportunistic, ranking 1st in the NFL with 12 interceptions. They also lead the league in QB hurries and hits, with 24 sacks on the season. This aggressive approach could pose problems for Joe Flacco and the Colts’ offensive line.

The Vikings have been particularly strong at home, winning 10 of their last 11 November games against AFC opponents. However, they’ll be without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear last week.

Colts vs Vikings Prediction

While the Vikings are favored in this matchup, there are some intriguing betting angles to consider. The Colts have been excellent against the spread this season, and Joe Flacco’s veteran presence could provide a spark to the offense.

However, Minnesota’s aggressive defense and home-field advantage make them tough to bet against. The Vikings’ ability to generate pressure and force turnovers could be the difference-maker, especially against a Colts team making a mid-season quarterback change.

One interesting trend to note is Minnesota’s strong first-quarter performances. The Vikings have won the first quarter in each of their last seven games. With the Colts potentially taking time to adjust to Flacco under center, there could be value in backing Minnesota early.

Ultimately, I like Minnesota to etch out a home victory, but I’m torn on the -5.5 number. Instead, my best bet is on the first quarter line. Look for Minnesota to come out strong following two losses and build an early lead against a Colts team in transition.

SNF Picks:

• Vikings -0.5 1st Quarter (-105 at
  BetMGM
  
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