As most PBers know I live in Bedford only about a mile and a half from the Mid Beds constituency where following the resignation of Nadine Dorries there is to be a by-election.
This has been a long time coming and the outgoing Tory MP has not helped her party’s reputation by first announcing her resignation “with immediate effect” and then taking 76 days to actually do so. Her resignation letter is full of vitriol and could have an impact on the by-election campaign.
What we have is the prospect of a fascinating contest where you can make a good case for the Tories, Labour and the LDs Dems coming out as winner.
Even even though Ed Davey’s party came in third place at the general election the early betting has them as the odds on favorites. This is almost certainly down to their exceptional by-election record this Parliament where they’ve made three gains. This contrasts with just one net gain for Labour because they lost Hartlepool at the start of the Parliament.
Given the national polling, you would expect Labour to do very well here but I am concerned that they have selected a London Councillor as their candidate. In hard-fought tight by-elections you need a local and the LDs have been pressing them very hard so far on this point.
This is particularly so because of the reason for this by-election which has raised issues of the relations between an MP and his/her constituency.
At the moment I am not betting. The Lib Dem odds being offered are just too tight. No doubt I will make a decision as the campaign’s progress..
