• The Houston Rockets face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Cup Semifinals on Saturday
• The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites and -230 on the moneyline in the latest NBA odds
• See below for Rockets vs Thunder predictions, odds and props for Dec. 14

The Houston Rockets (17-8) meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (19-5) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night at 8:30 PM EST with a spot in the NBA Cup Final on the line. Both teams are looking to continue their surprising seasons after taking care of business in their quarterfinal games.

The Rockets advanced with a gritty 91-90 win over the Golden State Warriors, while the Thunder took down Luka Doncic and the Mavericks 118-104. OKC is favored to keep rolling on the neutral court.

Here is a look at our Rockets vs Thunder prediction for Saturday night in Sin City.

Rockets vs Thunder Prediction

• Best Bet: Thunder -5.5 (-115) at ESPNBet
• Lean: Under 216.5 (-115) at ESPNBET

The Thunder come into this semifinal matchup riding high, having won four straight and eight of their last nine overall. They boast the NBA’s stingiest defense, allowing a league-low 103.4 points per game. That lockdown defense was on full display in their 14-point drubbing of Dallas.

Thunder stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have been sensational all season. SGA paces OKC with 30.2 points and 6.3 assists per game, putting himself squarely in the early MVP conversation. The youngster Williams is putting up 21.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists of his own.

SGA: “My whole life is consistent.”

Jalen & Jaylin Williams reaction.

(h/t @UsherNBA)

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— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 9, 2024

Houston has been one of the NBA’s biggest surprises, though, as it has surged to a 17-8 record after being projected as a .500 team. Their win over Golden State showcased their balance, with seven Rockets averaging double-figure scoring. Big man Alperen Sengun leads the way with 18.8 points and 10.6 rebounds.

I’m backing the Thunder to get it done and cover in Vegas. Not only do they have the rest advantage after last playing on the 10th compared to Houston’s Wednesday-Saturday turnaround, OKC also matches up extremely well here.

NBA Cup Semifinals loading

ABC
@sportsanimal pic.twitter.com/KSbakeOBHW

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) December 14, 2024

OKC’s rangy, versatile defense should give the Rockets fits. They held Houston to just 107 points in a 19-point win in their first meeting this season before the Rockets managed to scrape by with a 3-point victory in the rematch just 13 days ago.

I expect the Thunder’s D to be the difference in this neutral-site rubber match. Their ability to switch across multiple positions and protect the rim (third in blocks) is ideal for the Rockets’ drive-heavy attack that ranks just 26th in three-point rate.

The under also has value in what should be a defensive battle between two of the league’s top three defenses. These teams have averaged 234 total points in the past two meetings, but oddsmakers know this game will be played tighter. Trust the under if the total stays above 215.

HOU vs OKC Player Props

NBA player props from BetMGM Sportsbook on Dec. 14.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop of 31.5 is a strong play given his recent surge and matchup. The Thunder superstar has surpassed 30 points in three of four games and hung 39 on the Mavericks’ 7th-ranked defense last time out.

Here are a couple of other props that stand out:

• Jalen Williams over 4.5 assists (+110) at BetMGM: The 23-year-old has dished out an average of five dimes per game this season. He had seven assists against the Rockets two weeks ago and should take advantage of this matchup once again.
• Alperen Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (-120) at BetMGM: Sengun has been a machine on the glass, posting a double-double in three of his last five games. He tallied 11 boards versus OKC on Dec. 1.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The Thunder head into Saturday’s semifinal as 5.5-point favorites, with their -230 moneyline price giving them a 69.7% implied probability of advancing to the NBA Cup Final. The Rockets are +190 underdogs, suggesting just a 34.5% shot at pulling off the upset.

OKC being favored is no surprise given their superior record, deeper roster, and extra rest. Houston has put together an impressive campaign but will be fighting an uphill battle at T-Mobile Arena, especially against a Thunder defense surrendering the fewest points per game.

The total is set at 216.5 points, well below the 234 these teams averaged across their two regular season clashes. With two elite defenses getting after it under the bright lights and high stakes of the NBA Cup Semifinals, the under is the sharp play despite the H2H history saying otherwise.

As always, be sure to monitor those NBA public betting percentages in the lead up to this 8:30 PM EST tipoff on ABC.

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