By Ivan Bigg

The pressure is on! If you read last year’s rule-based analysis of the Breeders’ Cup here, you know that a measly $2.40 in the early pick-5 returned a healthy $152. It was a 60-cent wheel – 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1.

Do you think betting rules will be that efficient again? What’s good is that last year’s result shows you it can be done.

If you’ve read my previous columns here or weekly in the Canadian Thoroughbred, you know I don’t believe in opinions. Opinions are mostly wrong and players with the strongest, loudest opinions—and I’ve seen this again and again in dozens of seminars I’ve hosted through the years—are usually the ones mostly likely to be wrong. Laughs, guffaws and ultimately red faces generally have followed such sessions.

“A rule is a rule is a rule” is what I often say even in the face of naysayers telling me “the rule won’t work this time.” And you can guess what often happens.

And the good thing about the Breeders’ Cup is that rules are the most potent because we’re dealing with classy horses, not bottom claimers, and what you see is what you get.

What are the two most powerful rules in Saturday’s BC races? (1) Look for horses with the most in-the-money finishes (2) In turf route races, look for horses that have been racing for the highest purses. Workouts play a role, too. DRF clocker Mike Welsch has proven through the years to offer some longshot gems—horses that, he says, are likely to “fall under the radar.” There are a couple of those in tomorrow’s card.

Okay, let’s apply the rules and see if we can hit a pick-4 or pick-5 with lunch money.

RACE 4, Filly & Mare Sprint: Love this race because the 7-furlong rule works so well. What horses have the highest speed figures at 7-furlongs in their past peformances? #6 Society (3-1) is tops with 112 followed by longshot #8 Soul of an Angel (12-1) with 109, then #4 Vahva (4-1) with 107 and morning line favourite #9 Ways and Means (5-2) with 103.  I’d say a triactor box of those four horses is almost a slam-dunk with the hopes that longshot #8 gets into the mix.

RACE 5, Turf Sprint: #9 Cogburn (7-5) will be a key on many players’ tickets—and rightfully so. This horse is 2-for-2 wins at the 5-furlong distance and has won three sprints in a row, one Grade 1 stakes and two Grade 2 stakes. #5 Ag Bullet (10-1) satisfies the rule of a horse cutting back to a sprint after showing early speed in a route race and #12 Bradsell (7-2) is a Group 1 European invader with 6-of-7 in-the-money finishes at the distance. This race condition has a tendency to be chaotic as well so wheeling “all” horses in a pick-3 might reward you handsomely.

RACE 6, Distaff: Ta-da! Here’s your best bet on the card, the queen of this year’s Breeders’ Cup, #2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5), 9-for-9 in-the-money finishes including 3-for-3 wins at this 1 1/8 mile distance.  Through the years a horse with these stats has been the most likely Breeders’ Cup winner. Looking more deeply there’s 7-for-7 Japanese invader #9 Awesome Result (4-1) but DRF clocker Mike Welsch commented the filly seemed to be “under pressure” during her workout. Not a good sign.  There’s also #6 Raging Sea (7-2) with 6-of-7 in-the-money finishes.

RACE 7, Turf: Another standout. #11 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) has 11 wins in 13 starts. Next is #6 Far Bridge (6-1) who is 2-for-2. Maybe #4 Luxembourg (12-1) is a sneaky longshot, having finished well behind Rebel’s Romance in a $1.6 million race at Ascot in England. Maybe for the bottom of superfectas?

RACE 8, Classic: I’m all over the place in this race because of various influences. #3 City of Troy (5-2) from European turf courses (6-of-7 wins) is likely to be among the top two favourites but clocker Welsch said the horse’s leg action is more suited to the turf which makes one wonder if he’ll take to the dirt. You also have to like #9 Fierceness (3-1) whose only flaw among multiple stakes wins is his Kentucky Derby debacle. And #1 Forever Young (6-1) is reputed to be the most talented horse in the 19-horse Japanese contingent. Also, #2 Highland Falls (20-1) is 9-for-9 in the money, #7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1) is clocker Welsch’s “under the radar … good impression” horse, #11 Sierra Leone (12-1) who finished second to Fierceness is working well and #14 Next (8-1) has nothing but wins in the race program. Pick ‘em!

RACE 9. Filly & Mare Turf: Yay, Queen’s Plate winner Moira has a shot at 8-1—maybe a very good shot. She has a better closing fraction in a turf route race than any other horse in the field. The obvious horse she has to get past, though, is #4 War Like Goddess (5-2) who is 7-for-7 in the money at this 1 3/8-mile distance.

RACE 10, Sprint: Should be one crazy fast race with four horses needing the lead trying to wrest the lead from others. Whew! I’m thinking the speedsters will be out of gas when the wire looms, setting up the race for closers #4 Nakatomi (6-1) and #9 Remake (8-1).

RACE 11, Mile: The rule is purse size. #6 Notable (7-2) raced for a higher purse in Europe than others in this race but #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) is close. Among North Americans #12 Carl Spackler (12-1) has raced for $1.2 million as has #8 More Than Looks (20-1). #3 Geoglyph (20-1) is another clocker Welsch “under the radar” possibility.

RACE 12, Dirt Mile: Gate to wire by #14 Skippylongstocking (4-1) because he has both high pace and high speed figures. That’s if he can clear easily from the extreme outside post. Otherwise, #1 Saudi Crown (5-1) looms a possibility. Will #8 Post Time (12-1) sneak into the works, given his 13-for-13 in-the-money record?

Some card, eh? The race 10 Sprint particularly excites me. Will we see a Breeders’ Cup record, given the need-to-lead of four of the 11 horses?

Suggestion: Besides this early 60-cent pick-5 wheel in races 4 to 8 (4,6,8,9/9/2/6/1,2,3,7,9,11,14) at a cost of $16.80, might I recommend pick-3 plays. Key a horse and even take “all” horses in the other two legs and you may hit for big money. Not to mention the excitement of having a wager like that so you can cheer for the longest shot in the field. And don’t forget about 20-cent superfectas—a chance for a big score for pocket change!

Hopefully, you’ll have some positive memories to share!

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