• We’ve made our Fresno State vs Nevada prediction for Friday night
• The latest Friday night CFB odds favor the Bulldogs by a field goal
• Read below for Fresno State vs Nevada prediction, pick and odds

The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3, 1-1 MWC) travel to Reno to face the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4, 0-1 MWC) in a Friday night Mountain West showdown on October 18, 2024. Kickoff is set for 10:30 PM ET at Mackay Stadium, with the game broadcast on CBS Sports Network.

This matchup pits two teams looking to gain ground in the MWC standings. Fresno State aims to snap a two-game skid and get back on track after losses to Washington State and UNLV. Nevada hopes to build on their upset win over Oregon State and inch closer to bowl eligibility.

Oddsmakers have installed Fresno State as 3-point road favorites, with the total set at 49.5 points. The line has held steady, but the total has seen sharp action, dropping from an opener of 52.5.

Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction

Fresno State entered the season with high expectations but sits at a disappointing 3-3. Their wins have come against weaker competition in Sacramento State, New Mexico, and New Mexico State. In their two toughest tests, the Bulldogs stumbled, losing to Washington State and getting blown out by UNLV.

Offensively, quarterback Mikey Keene has put up solid numbers, throwing for 1,576 yards and eight touchdowns. However, he’s been turnover-prone with eight interceptions. The ground game has struggled, ranking 115th nationally in rush success rate.

Mikey Keene Josiah Freeman

FS1 pic.twitter.com/UCFfR7uEra

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) October 12, 2024

Defensively, Fresno State has been inconsistent. They rank 41st in pass success rate allowed but have struggled against the run, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. In their last three games, the Bulldogs are allowing 35 points and 410 yards per contest.

Nevada started slowly but has shown improvement, especially offensively. Over their last three, the Wolf Pack are averaging nearly 41 points and 457 yards per game, including an impressive 7.2 yards per play. Dual-threat QB Brendon Lewis has been dynamic, accounting for 1,645 total yards and 13 touchdowns.

Brendon Lewis had six total TDs (2 pass, 4 rush) in 2023 & already has more than doubled that (13 — 9 pass, 4 rush) thru seven games this year.

He also leads the MW in completion % (67.1) with the second-best QBR.

Phenomenal turnaround. @MWCConnectionpic.twitter.com/8shpmJg9b5

— Matt Hanifan (@mph_824_) October 17, 2024

The Wolf Pack are 3-0 ATS as underdogs this season. They hung tough in a near-upset of SMU in the opener as 28-point dogs and just knocked off Oregon State as 3-point home pups. At 5-2 ATS overall, Nevada has consistently exceeded market expectations.

While Fresno State has the talent edge, their recent play and defensive struggles are concerning. Nevada’s offense is clicking, and they have the momentum coming off the Oregon State win. At home, catching a field goal, the Wolf Pack are live dogs.

Friday Night CFB Picks:

• Prediction 1: Nevada +3 (-115)
• Prediction 2: Under 49.5 Points (-110)

The total has seen sharp money on the under, dropping from 52.5 to 49.5. Both defenses are vulnerable, but the under is 5-2 in Nevada’s last seven home games vs Fresno.

Fresno State vs Nevada Odds

Odds as of Oct. 18, at ESPN Bet. Check out ESPN Bet reviews or browse other top sports betting sites.

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Fresno State opened as 3.5-point road favorites, with the line since ticking down to -3 (-105). This implies the Bulldogs have about a 60% chance to win the game outright. However, Fresno is just 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings at Nevada.

The total opened at 52.5 points but has been bet down to 49.5, indicating sharp action on the under. In their last 10 meetings, Fresno-Nevada has gone under five times.

Fresno’s inconsistency, combined with Nevada’s ATS success as an underdog, suggests there may be value on the home dog at +3 (-115). The Wolf Pack moneyline (+125) will also tempt many bettors.

Fresno State vs Nevada Head-to-Head

Fresno State has won six of the last 10 meetings outright, but Nevada holds a 5-4-1 ATS edge in that span. The Bulldogs defeated the Wolf Pack 27-9 as massive home favorites last season, but Nevada covered the +25.5 spread.

Here’s a look at their last five meetings:

The historical trends paint a mixed picture, but recent trends favor Nevada. As home underdogs in a rivalry game, the Wolf Pack have a good shot to at least cover +3, if not pull the outright upset on Friday night.

The post Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction, Pick & Odds – Friday Night Football appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.