- We are faced with plenty of options for NFL parlay legs in Week 7 with 14 games still to be played across Sunday and Monday
- I have played two different NFL parlays again for Week 7, one longshot at 117-1 odds and one higher-probability parlay
- See my NFL parlay picks below
I’m back for another week of NFL parlay picks! While my longshot NFL parlay fell flat last week, only hitting two of five legs, I did cash my higher-probability NFL parlay at +116 odds. I am actually bringing back two players who came through for me last week in my longshot NFL parlay for Week 7, which comes out to a little better than 117-1 odds, and have another higher-probability NFL parlay at +146 odds.
Though there are a ton of options for both of these parlays with 14 more games to be played in Week 7, I am riding with five legs in my longshot parlay and three legs in my higher-probability parlay. Check them both out below!
Longshot NFL Parlay | Higher-Probability NFL Parlay
You will find some brief analysis for each leg of both NFL parlays under their respective tables below, and please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter/X to let me know which leg may cost me.
Week 7 Longshot NFL Parlay
| Parlay Legs | Odds |
|---|---|
| Demario Douglas 60+ Receiving Yards | +155 |
| Tyreek Hill 70+ Receiving Yards | +145 |
| Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown | -110 |
| Chuba Hubbard 90+ Rushing Yards | +230 |
| Chargers -6.5 | +200 |
| TOTAL 5-LEG PARLAY | +11707 |
I crafted this parlay at all major sports betting apps, and the best place to play it is at DraftKings. FanDuel comes close to these odds, but Caesars and ESPN Bet aren’t even close. BetMGM and bet365 just don’t offer the same rushing and receiving milestones – they offer multiples of 25. A $5 bet on this five-leg longshot NFL parlay would profit $590.38.
Here’s some quick analysis on why I like each of these NFL parlay legs!
In his first game with Drake Maye as his QB, Demario Douglas recorded 92 receiving yards and a touchdown on the nine targets he received. Douglas is New England’s top playmaker and they’re going to continue to get more creative in getting him the ball in space. His quickness and insane change of pace/direction makes him extremely difficult to cover for a defense full of good defensive backs. Jacksonville is now that defense, however. The Jaguars are allowing the most passing yards in the NFL and are 29th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. I think Douglas for 60+ receiving yards is a great bet this Sunday!
Demario Douglas
Since Week 3:
(per @FantasyPtsData)WR30 in fppg
22.4% target share
58.3 rec yds/game
28.4% first read shareNew England’s clear WR1 moving forward pic.twitter.com/lUaXV3BLMw
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 14, 2024
After a pretty awful first game with Tyler Huntley, Tyreek Hill bounced back in their second game together, catching six of ten targets for 69 yards. The two now have two games together, and are coming off a bye entering Week 7. I expect the connection to continue to improve, and believe Mike McDaniel knows how crucial Hill is to their offensive success. It shouldn’t be too difficult to get Hill involved against a Colts defense that’s allowing the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt. Hill could very easily record all 70 of these yards in just a couple catches.
I discussed why I like a Joe Mixon TD in my Week 7 NFL TD Scorer Picks. The gist is that he is the player Houston leans on in the red zone. When he’s on the field and healthy, he’s scoring touchdowns.
In the four games since Andy Dalton took over under center for the Panthers, Chuba Hubbard is averaging 101.8 rushing yards per game and has never totaled less than 92 yards on the ground. I can appreciate that we all expect the Washington offense to put up a lot of points, but that hasn’t stopped Hubbard from racking up rushing yards. Carolina has lost by double-digits in each of those four games. Hubbard will also be dealing with a Washington defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per rush attempt, surrendering 5.0 yards per tote. Give me Hubbard for 90+ rushing yards again this week!
Week 7 Higher-Probability NFL Parlay
| Parlay Legs | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aidan O’Connell 200+ Passing Yards | -198 |
| Commanders -2.5 | -390 |
| Derrick Henry 60+ Rushing Yards | -330 |
| TOTAL 3-LEG PARLAY | +146 |
My three-leg higher-probability NFL parlay is best played at FanDuel for +146 odds. As was the case above, a couple sportsbooks don’t have the 60+ milestone I wanted for Derrick Henry, and Caesars did not list any alt passing yards lines for Aidan O’Connell at the time of writing this.
In his first start of the season against a very good Steelers defense last week, Aidan O’Connell threw for 227 yards. Yes, the Raiders were playing with a negative game script for a good portion of the game, but I don’t see that changing much when they play the Rams, who are expecting Cooper Kupp back, in Week 7. The biggest difference I see between the two games is the defenses O’Connell will be dealing with. Pittsburgh’s as mentioned, is quite strong and very good at getting after the passer. The Rams are 28th in total yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. They also allow the most net yards per pass attempt in the NFL. I don’t think O’Connell has any trouble throwing for 200+ yards.
Though they lost the game, I was extremely impressed by the Commanders going into M&T Bank Stadium last week and giving the Ravens a good game. Jayden Daniels has the offense rolling and I don’t suspect him to slow down at all against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most points in the NFL. I’m teasing this spread down a little to Commanders -2.5, just in case we see the Commanders defense allow Andy Dalton to go crazy.
Derrick Henry is averaging 117.3 rushing yards per game. His worst game of the season came in Week 1, when he only totaled 46 rushing yards. His lowest rushing total since then has been 84 yards, but he has gone for 132+ in three of the last four. Henry faces a Bucs defense in Week 7 that’s allowing 4.7 yards per carry (24th), and I feel 60+ rushing yards should be no problem for him.
The post Free Week 7 NFL Parlay Picks: Longshot & Higher-Probability NFL Parlay Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
