- Max Verstappen is favored to return to the top of podium at Japanese Grand Prix
- Carlos Sainz Jr. lags in wake of win in Singapore
- Read on for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix odds, picks and predictions ahead of Sunday’s race
Max Verstappen will be looking to reclaim his familiar perch atop the podium when Formula 1 action returns this weekend with the running of the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix. Verstappen saw his epic win streak snapped at 10 races with his fifth-place finish at last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix, which also marked the first time in 16 races that neither Verstappen nor his Red Bull Racing teammate Sergio Perez have claimed the checkered flag.
While Red Bull looks for answers, Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jr. arrives in Japan looking to build on a master class drive to victory last weekend, which also marked his second straight trip to the podium.
Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, which feature a late-night start time of 1:00am on Sunday morning at Suzuka International Racing Course.
Odds to Win 2023 Japanese Grand Prix
| Driver | Odds to Win | Odds to Finish Top Three | Odds to Finish Top Six | Odds to Finish Top Ten |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -360 | -700 | -800 | -1100 |
| Sergio Perez | +1100 | -165 | -550 | -750 |
| Lando Norris | +1200 | +135 | -500 | -550 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1800 | +165 | -400 | -550 |
| George Russell | +1800 | +285 | -330 | -550 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1800 | +285 | -225 | -550 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +1800 | +285 | -225 | -400 |
| Oscar Piastri | +3000 | +300 | -200 | -450 |
| Fernando Alonso | +6000 | +750 | +135 | -350 |
| Lance Stroll | +25000 | +6500 | +1400 | +120 |
| Pierre Gasly | +30000 | +6500 | +1000 | -105 |
| Esteban Ocon | +30000 | +6500 | +1000 | -105 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 | +15000 | +4000 | -105 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 | +15000 | +4500 | +400 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | +15000 | +4500 | +185 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | +15000 | +2200 | +185 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +70000 | +20000 | +8000 | +650 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +70000 | +20000 | +8000 | +650 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +70000 | +20000 | +8000 | +600 |
| Logan Sargeant | +80000 | +25000 | +8000 | +1200 |
Red Bull’s disappointing performance in Singapore is not reflected on the Japanese Grand Prix odds, where Max Verstappen leads the way as a -260 favorite, well ahead of teammate Sergio Perez at +1100. Lando Norris sits third at +1200, followed by Lewis Hamilton at +1800, while Carlos Sainz joins Charles Leclerc and George Russell at +800.
Odds at DraftKings as of September 20, 2023. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix.
Can Red Bull Bounce Back from Singapore Setback?
Red Bull Racing has tried to put the best facer possible on last week’s relatively dismal performance by Verstappen and Perez. Both drivers struggled with pace in qualifying, with neither advancing to Q3 for the first time this season. Already at a disadvantage on the starting grid, the dup also struggled to make up ground on the tight track at Marina Bay. And even when Verstappen managed to climb to second place while other drivers pitted, he was unable to fend off rivals like Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris, who easily overtook him.
🔧 | 🇸🇬 Red Bull’s problem in Singapore: Was it really caused by the floor?
Red Bull’s performance drop in Singapore reminds F1 fans of a similar situation to Mercedes in 2015 which the dominant car was caught on the wrong foot by the street circuit.
Christian Horner assured… pic.twitter.com/rAicXXQJmf
— RBR News 🇳🇱🇲🇽 (@redbulletin) September 19, 2023
Things went no better for “Checo”, who was never a checkered flag threat during his run to eighth place. The duo remain perched atop the F1 odds, and with good reason. Verstappen and Perez finished one-two on a rain-soaked track in Japan last year, and still sport the fastest cars on the circuit. But apart from their -125 odds to produce a double podium finish, there is little value in wagering on Red Bull until last week’s pace issues are addressed.
Sainz Undervalued in Wake of Singapore Win
The big beneficiary of Red Bull’s woes in Singapore was Carlos Sainz Jr. Fresh off a third-place drive two weeks earlier in Italy, Sainz dominated the weekend, finishing tops in qualifying for a second straight week, before leading virtually wire to wire on race day. Now poised to match a personal best of three straight podium appearances, the 29-year-old Spaniard must first overcome a shaky track record in Japan.
Carlos Sainz is in the form of his life! 🔥#SingaporeGP #F1 @Carlossainz55 @ScuderiaFerrari pic.twitter.com/axlknYS8uW
— Formula 1 (@F1) September 16, 2023
In addition to crashing out on the opening lap last year, Sainz has managed to finish better than 10th just once in seven appearances at Suzuka. If weather cooperates, and he can manage to maintain the pace he had on straights last week, Sainz is well positioned to extend his streak.
In addition to offering value as a lengthy +1800 to claim the checkered flag, Sainz should not be overlooked as a +1200 wager to be the top qualifier. However, he offers equal value as a +450 to fail to be classified on Sunday.
Japanese Grand Prix Recent Winners
| Year | Driver | Margin of Victory |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing | 27.066 sec |
| 2020-2021 | Race Cancelled Due to COVID-19 Pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes | 13.343 sec |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 12.919 sec |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 1.211 sec |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | 4.978 sec |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 18.964 sec |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 9.180 sec |
Stroll Injured, Alonso Hits Speed Bump
It is not yet reflected on the Japanese Grand Prix odds, but Aston Martin announced late on Tuesday that Lance Stroll will not be behind the wheel in Japan, as he continues to recover from a scary collision with a barrier during qualifying in Singapore.
🚨💣BREAKING🟢
🇨🇦 Lance Stroll will not race at the Japanese GP due to the after-effects of his accident in Singapore🇸🇬.
🇧🇷He will be replaced by Felipe Drugovich. #F1 #Stroll #Drugovich pic.twitter.com/oXxuK0wE2F
— Matthew J. Thompson🇬🇧 (@realMJThompson) September 19, 2023
Stroll will be replaced by Formula 2 champion Felipe Drugovich, who will be making his F1 debut. Drugovich’s arrival could provide a shake up at Aston Martin, which has faded since enjoying a fast start to the season.
Fernando Alonso has particularly struggled. Fresh off a season-worst 15th-place performance in Singapore, the two-time F1 champion has reached the podium just once in seven races after finishing top three in six of eight outings. Alonso has reached the podium in Japan on four previous occasions, including a win in 2008, but should be looked at no further than a +135 bet to crack the top six.
Japanese Grand Prix Picks:
- Carlos Sainz Jr. podium finish (+285)
- Red Bull double podium (-125)
- Fernando Alonso top six finish (+135)
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The post Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Odds & Picks 2023 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
