Football Bet of the Day: Few fireworks when Flu are involved

Thursday’s football bet of the day comes from Caxias do Sul, Brazil as EC Juventude host Fluminense in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil last 16 tie.

The match at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (23:00) pairs two sides sat just four points apart in Serie A, but both are in very different moods heading into this one.

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Fluminense endured a dismal start to the 2024 Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A season, winning just one of their first 16 games to prop up the table, an embarrassing look for the reigning Copa Libertadores champions.

But after a winless first half of July when they drew 1-1 to Internacional and Criciuma either side of a 1-0 loss to Fortaleza, Flu’s fortunes turned around dramatically in the second half of the month.

A 1-0 victory over Cuiaba on July 22 was the first of three successive 1-0 wins as Palmeiras and Bragantino were also edged out. Suddenly, there are signs of life in the Tricolor, who will be eager to open up August with another triumph, albeit there are no three points on offer in Caxias do Sul.

While Flu appear to be on the rise, Juventude’s star is waning. The Verdao began life back in the Brazilian top flight by losing just one of their first seven matches and going unbeaten in their first seven at home, six of which they won.

A 1-1 draw at home to Internacional in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil round of 32 earlier this month denied them a fourth-straight victory at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, and that stalemate has been followed by a further three games without a win in Caxias do Sul.

Juventude must now rouse themselves for the visit of Fluminense, who will be smelling blood on Thursday against a side without a win in their last five games.

EC Juventude vs Fluminense Odds

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The sides have already met once this term, playing out a 1-1 draw at the Maracana on June 1. Marcelo opened the scoring for the hosts via the penalty spot but Jadson struck an equaliser for Juventude in the 69th minute, and the visitors held out for a point in Rio de Janeiro.

Remarkably, eight of Fluminense’s next 12 matches have finished with under 1.5 goals including their last three, which they have all won 1-0. None of those contests have ended goalless, but there have been eight 1-0 scorelines, three in favour of Flu and five against.

Goals haven’t been quite as scarce in Juventude games but there have been no more than three strikes in all of their last six; three of them finished with exactly two goals, and one with zero as they played out a goalless draw with Sao Paulo on July 21.

Juventude’s home matches in Serie A average two goals per game this term – only Internacional (12) and Gremio (19) have seen fewer at home, and the former have played four fewer, while only Internacional (14) have been involved in fewer goals on their travels than Fluminense (15).

As such, all signs point towards a cagey contest in Caxias do Sul, which is why I’m backing under 1.5 total goals on Thursday, particularly as there is a second leg to come in Rio de Janeiro next week.

Offers

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