- Fed officials anticipate tightening but didn’t raise rates in June due to over-tightening concerns.
- Most officials expect rate hikes, with some anticipating multiple increases this year.
- US Dollar strengthens, impacting GBP/USD and EUR/USD, with potential bearish targets if GBP/USD falls below 1.2700.
During their June meeting, minutes released on Wednesday indicated that almost all Federal Reserve officials expect further tightening in the future. Despite the majority’s belief in upcoming rate hikes, policymakers chose not to increase rates due to concerns about over-tightening. They acknowledged the delayed impact of previous policies and other factors, which led them to skip the June meeting after implementing ten consecutive rate increases.
Out of the 18 participants, all but two anticipated at least one rate hike to be appropriate within this year, while twelve members expected two or more hikes.
The prevailing consensus that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of the July policy meeting has lent some strength to the US Dollar and exerted downward pressure on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The DXY (US Dollar Index) surged above 103.30, reaching its highest level of the week.
EUR/USD further declined to the 1.0850 region. The outlook for the Euro has turned negative as the EUR/USD pair dropped below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).
If the GBP/USD pair falls below 1.2700 and confirms that level as resistance, the next potential bearish targets could be 1.2680, 1.2658, 1.2647 according to fib retracement levels and previously pivot points.
