FM Championship Tips: Zhang can win again on LPGA

The LPGA major season is done and it’s the magnificent Solheim Cup in two weeks. First though, we have one last regulation event on home soil, in the form of the FM Championship.

Our star golf tipster Jamie Worsley is in superb tipping form at the moment, with six winners in the last six weeks! Here are his FM Championship tips, which range from 16/1 to a massive 300/1!

Even by her own brilliant standards, the last few weeks have been spectacular from Lydia Ko. Not content with taking the Olympic gold medal in Paris – having won silver and bronze in the previous two – she walked away with the Women’s Open title last week, on the hallowed grounds of St Andrews no less.

The LPGA Hall of Famer handled the tough conditions superbly in Sunday’s final round, looking in complete control of her game as many around her struggled to keep bogeys off their card.

Her incredible approaches into the final two greens emphasised the New Zealander’s excellent winning mentality, and perhaps made even stranger the fact that it had been over eight years since she won her second major title in the Chevron Championship (then the ANA Inspiration) in 2016.

Lydia takes a deserved week off as the LPGA heads back to the U.S for one final event before the Solheim Cup at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in two weeks’ time. It’s a brand new event on the calendar, as TPC Boston hosts the inaugural edition of the FM Championship.

THE COURSE

TPC Boston was originally designed by Arnold Palmer in 2002, though has been regularly renovated by Gill Hanse since 2007. Well known to PGA Tour audiences, having hosted the Dell Technologies Championship from 2003-2018 and The Northern Trust in 2020, it will be the first time it has welcomed players from the LPGA.

The course will play as a par 72 and measures 6598 yards. There are 10x par 4s (298-419 yards), 4x par 5s (493-579 yards) and 4x par 3s (144-184 yards).

TPC Boston is a largely tree-lined venue, though most holes are relatively spacious. It’s fairly flat throughout the front nine, though does get a little hillier on the back with a few moderate changes in elevation and features water/wetlands in-play on 10 holes.

The gently undulating fairways are generous, but well protected by some strong strategic bunkering and thick Kentucky bluegrass/fescue rough. With most of them doglegging, they require some thought to attack and the course on the whole tests the field’s decision-making abilities.

The small-average-sized bentgrass greens will play at a speedy 12 on the stimpeter. These contoured, sloping surfaces are often narrow/shallow in shape and at an angle to the fairway, which makes the landing zones tricky to hit and players will need to be at their best in approach to access some demanding pin positions.

More of that bunkering and rough protects the mounded green surrounds, whilst there are also some run-off areas that lead into tightly-mown chipping areas.

The course has plenty of risk/reward opportunities throughout. Hazards come into play on three of the four par 5s and par 3s, whilst the drivable 298-yard par 4 4^th is another that prompts players with a decision to make.

Those risk/reward elements play a major part in the finish, starting on the diminutive 144-yard par 3 16^th. A hole on which players must carry their approach over water front and left, into a large but narrow, angled and sloping green.

The field then move on to the 389-yard par 4 17^th. Many players will lay back on this right-to-left doglegging hole, before then attacking the tiny, narrow putting surface, which is protected by large bunkers left and short of the green.

Finally, we advance to the 530-yard par 5 closing hole. It plays left-to-right and though the sloping fairway feels generous there are two devilish bunkers placed in the middle of it. Find the short grass and players will have to decide whether to attack this small, shallow green in two, which has wetlands and a deep bunker short, and a run-off into a chipping area for those who go long.

This is a fun venue to watch, and that finish plays a major role in that. I’m excited to witness some of the LPGA’s best tackle this familiar setup for the first time this week.

THE WEATHER

This week’s field should be welcomed by very playable weather. The forecast is predicting pleasantly warm, dry and sunny conditions throughout the event, and with little in the way of wind, players should be able to appreciate this new test without much hinderance.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Putting (bentgrass)
• Driving Distance
• Par 5 Scoring

We’re a little in the dark as to how this field will tackle the course, though with smallish greens that can be tough to hit, quality iron play looks the standout necessity. Meanwhile, players who have displayed a proven ability to putt speedy bentgrass surfaces should be given a closer look.

Although the course is short enough that most in the field should be able to score well, the generous fairways often resulted in leaderboards full of longer drivers in the PGA Tour events hosted here. With past winners of those events including Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy.

Lastly, the par 5s will be vital in scoring well this week. While most have their dangers, the majority of players in the field will be able to attack them in two.

CORRELATING EVENTS

We should get a better idea in terms of comp events after the tournament’s completion this week. However, that doesn’t help us here and I’ve drawn up a list of courses that bear some similarities.

The Arkansas Championship at Pinnacle Country Club immediately springs to mind, as a tree-lined but spacious course with generous fairways, that possesses similarly-sized and fast bentgrass greens.

Outside of Arkansas I’m going to stick with a trio of events on the East Coast in New Jersey: the Mizuho Americas Open at Liberty National Golf Club, the Founders Cup at Upper Montclair Country Club and the Shoprite Classic at Seaview’s Bay Course. Each of these courses uses the same grasses as this week, with bentgrass greens and fairways, along with a mixture of bluegrass/fescue in the rough.

The mounding at Liberty National and Seaview is reminiscent to some of what we’ll see this week, whilst Upper Montclair is tree-lined, similarly well bunkered and – as with Liberty National – has plenty of water in-play.

THE FIELD

Our field is fairly deep but lacking some of the star quality at the very top of the Rolex Rankings. Amy Yang is the highest-ranked player in the field at #5 and she is joined by a further five of the world’s top-10, in the shape of Jin Young Ko (#6), Hannah Green (#7), Celine Boutier (#9) and Rose Zhang (#10). Whilst we have an additional six of the top-25.

The Solheim Cup teams were finalised today, and we have many of those who will be competing in Virginia in action this week.

Celine Boutier, Carlota Ciganda, Madelene Sagstrom, Anna Nordqvist and Albane Valenzuela tee it up from Team Europe.

In addition, there will be 9/12 from Team USA heading to Boston: Lauren Coughlin, Allisen Corpuz, Megan Khang, Andrea Lee, Rose Zhang, Alison Lee, Sarah Schmelzel, Jennifer Kupcho and Lexi Thompson.

FM Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main FM Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Atthaya Thitikul 12/1, Haeran Ryu 14/1, Jin Young Ko 16/1, Lauren Coughlin 16/1, Xiyu Lin 18/1, Rose Zhang 18/1

I’m going to start near the top of the betting and having recorded her two LPGA victories in Northeastern USA, I’m taking Rose Zhang to come out on top at TPC Boston.

2.5 pts Rose Zhang each-way (1/4 – 5 places) @ 18/1 

Zhang doubled her LPGA win tally in the Founders Cup back in May and has remained in largely good form since. Though withdrawing from the Mizuho Americas Open and missing the cut in the US Women’s Open on her following two starts, she hasn’t missed another across her last six. She hit the top-10 in the CPKC Women’s Open and Olympics, before putting up positive top-30 performances in Scotland on her last two starts.

The Californian is gaining strokes right across her game, but her real strength lies in her iron play, ranking 5^th in approach and 14^th in greens-in-regulation. As a player who has putted well on bentgrass before and found a little bit of length with driver this year, she has a good profile for the test.

Zhang recorded that incredible pro debut victory in the Mizuho Americas Open last year in New Jersey and with her second tour win coming in the same state in the Founders Cup earlier in the year, she clearly feels comfortable in this part of the country. As she showed when also winning the 2020 US Women’s Amateur and 2021 US Girls’ Junior out on the East Coast.

1.5 pts Nasa Hataoka each way (1/4 – 5 places) @ 30/1

Nasa Hataoka’s tee-to-green game looked strong over her two weeks in Scotland. With her best putting performance of the year coming on the same type of bentgrass that she’ll putt this week, the Japanese star can end her two-year wait for a victory in the FM Championship.

This year has been an up-and-down one by the usually consistent standards of Hataoka, missing twice as many cuts as she had in the previous two years combined. However, there have still been plenty of positive performances, with her hitting the top-25 on eight occasions, the latest of which came when 15^th in the Women’s Scottish Open two weeks ago.

She remains one of the strongest tee-to-green players on tour, ranking 7^th and has been especially strong with her irons, ranking 12^th in approach and 17^th in GIR. The putter has been a concern, but she did produce her strongest display of the season with the club in the Mizuho Americas Open, ranking 6^th, where they use the same A-4 bentgrass as TPC Boston.

Hataoka’s ability on bentgrass is further evidenced by her two victories in the Arkansas Championship, and with multiple top-10s across the Shoprite Classic and Founders Cup, we have plenty of reason to expect a strong showing from her this week.

1 pt Jin Hee Im each way (1/4 – 5 places) @ 45/1 

Six-time Korean LPGA winner, Jin Hee Im continues to impress in her LPGA rookie season, and due to the high quality of her approach play, she can earn a breakthrough win this week.

Im missed her first two cuts of the season but has only gone on to miss a further two across her next 17 starts. She’s recorded 10 top-25 finishes across those events, including in the last two weeks in Scotland, finishing 17^th in the Women’s Scottish Open and 10^th on her AIG Women’s Open debut last week.

She hit the ball excellently in both of those most recent starts, especially at St Andrews, where she ranked 10^th in approach and 12^th off-the-tee.

Im’s iron play has been her biggest strength throughout the season, ranking 14^th in GIR and 18^th in approach, whilst as a player not short on length and a generally reliable putter, she ticks many boxes for this challenge.

0.75 pts Alexa Pano each way (1/4 – 5 places) @ 110/1

Massachusetts-born Alexa Pano appears to have found something in approach and on the greens on her latest starts. When combined with her length with the driver, she can make some noise at a three-figure price in Boston.

Following finishing 2^nd in the season-opening Tournament of Champions, Pano has struggled for consistency for much of the year. Although, she comes into this week after recording her second and third-highest finishes across her last three starts, finishing 14^th in the Portland Classic four weeks ago and after missing the cut in the Women’s Scottish Open, she responded brilliantly to hit 10^th place at the Old Course last week.

She’s been impressive across her game in each of those two recent top-15s, ranking 5^th tee-to-green in the Women’s Open and 12^th in Portland. I’ve been particularly encouraged by her approach play in these events, with her top-25 rankings rating as her second and third-best approach displays of the season.

Pano had a promising junior career and turned pro at 17-years-old in 2022. It took her a little over a year to record her first LPGA victory, winning the co-sanctioned (with the LET) ISPS Handa World Invitational at Galgorm Castle last year and with her familiarity of playing up and down the East Coast, she can make a strong play at claiming LPGA win #2 this week.

0.5 pts Jennifer Chang each way (1/4 – 5 places) @ 300/1

1 pt Jennifer Chang Top 10 finish @ 16/1

I’m going to finish with former #5 amateur, Jennifer Chang. Since shedding her amateur status at the end of 2019, she’s had a difficult start to her pro career, though she has recorded two top-20s across her last three LPGA starts and with her approach play a particular asset, she can enjoy a good spin around TPC Boston.

Chang has split her time between the LPGA and the Epson Tour (the LPGA’s feeder tour) this season. Whilst her results on that second tier have been unimpressive, she has upped her game at this higher level, making four of six cuts. This includes those two recent top-20s, that saw her finish 19^th in the Dana Open three starts ago and when we last saw her, she finished 14^th in the Portland Classic.

That effort in Portland was especially eye-catching, as she looked in excellent form with her irons, ranking 4^th in approach and 15^th in GIR. In addition, she’s generally been solid on the greens on the LPGA, and looks at her best on bentgrass, with her two best putting performances last year coming at the Shoprite Classic and Mizuho Americas Open.

Chang was a consistently strong performer throughout her amateur career, competing with and often beating players such as major champions, Lilia Vu and Allisen Corpuz. Though her pro career has been slow to take off, those recent results are a positive indicator that this talented player is starting to find her feet and she looks well worth taking at a huge price this week.

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