Shares of Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) traded modestly higher Monday after the stock was dubbed a top long idea in new coverage by research firm Hedgeye.
In a report to clients, analyst Sean Jenkins highlighted the online sports betting duopoly comprised of Flutter and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) as among the reasons investors should consider owning both gaming equities.
Looking ahead, as the industry matures; and the duopoly of FLUT and DKNG continue to build their lead, there’s an improving rationale and a strengthening investment case for owning both,” observed the analyst.
Shares of FanDuel parent Flutter are higher by 10.53% year to date while DraftKings is up 6.33%. In particular, the latter has been slammed over the past three months due to Illinois employing a graduated tax rate on sports wagering.
Under that state’s recently implemented scheme, large operators such as FanDuel and DraftKings will pay significantly more in taxes than smaller competitors. The rates to be paid by that duo in the state will more than double.
Look Beyond Q2 with Flutter Entertainment
The Illinois tax hike weighed on some sports betting stocks in the second quarter but the feared contagion risk has yet to be validated as other large sports wagering states have yet to follow suit.
That could change as more cash-strapped states look for new sources of revenue, but analysts believe that risk — or at the very least — the Illinois headwind, is largely priced into gaming equities at this point. As such, Jenkins encouraged investors to examine DraftKings and Flutter as second-half and long-term ideas rather than placing significant weight on second-quarter results.
“We like the setup for FLUT as while the Q2 appears de-risked, focus has not yet shifted to what could come on the backend of a choppy 1H,” added the analyst. “If our analysis is correct, that shift could happen soon and industry leaders, along with their reaccelerating top lines, should benefit disproportionately.”
DraftKings is expected to report second-quarter results on August 1 while Flutter will deliver numbers for the April through June period on August 13.
New York State of Mind
By population, New York is the largest state with an open sports betting market, also making it the biggest state by handle. While the state levies a 51% tax on sports wagering — the highest in the country — it’s lured a bevy of sportsbook operators. Even so, FanDuel and DraftKings have exert considerable dominance there.
The most recent trends in the critical, still rapidly-growing New York market suggest that Flutter/FanDuel is maintaining a significant lead in market share in GGR at 47% vs. 36% for DraftKings, despite DraftKings generating higher growth at 45% vs. Flutter’s 27%,” noted Jefferies analyst David Katz in a report out Monday.
Katz observed that investors appear to be more constructive on Flutter as a New York play, but added that both that name and DraftKings are the top ideas in his total coverage universe.
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