• FIU is a 7.5-point favorite over UTEP in Week 8 College Football action on Wednesday, October 16
• UTEP QB Cade McConnell is a true game-time decision (wrist)
• Keep reading for the latest FIU vs UTEP prediction, pick and odds below

You can stop worrying about what you’re going to do tonight, because Conference USA is giving us two College Football games to sweat. The second involves FIU (2-4, 1-1 C-USA) visiting winless UTEP (0-6, 0-3 C-USA), with the Panthers pegged as heavy chalk per the College Football odds.

FIU vs UTEP Odds

FIU is currently a 7.5-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 47. This game opened Panthers -6, but one-sided action has driven the line up to where it stands. Even at the current number, FIU is dominating both the spread tickets and handle. 91% of the ATS bets are backing the Panthers, accounting for 95% of the money wagered.

Total-wise, the line has been bet down a point from its opener, but it could be on its way back up per the College Football public betting trends. That’s because 80% of the total handle is currently on over 47, despite that money coming from just 42% of the over/under tickets.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9 pm ET at the Sun Bowl, in El Paso, TX, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.

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Odds as of October 16 at 12:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 8 College Football matchup.

UTEP Dealing With Uncertainty at QB

One of the reasons bettors are gravitating towards FIU is the shaky QB situation for UTEP. Starter Cade McConnell is a true-game decision due to a wrist injury. McConnell was forced to leave last week’s loss to Western Kentucky, and the team is prepping Skyler Locklear to start.

UTEP QB Cade McConnell is a “game time decision” for Wednesdays game against Florida International.

If McConnell can’t go, Skyler Locklear could make his 5th start this year at QB #MinerTalk @600espnelpaso pic.twitter.com/YZMEWfUeY6

— Adrian Broaddus (@AdrianBroaddus) October 14, 2024

Locklear has plenty of experience, having appeared in five games already this season, but he’s a clear downgrade at the position. He’s thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdown passes (3), and has an abysmal QBR of 17.6. That ranks 127th in the nation, and he’s averaging less than 5.0 yards per completion over his last two outings.

As we’ll discuss later, the Miners passing game leaves little to be desired. McConnell is by no means a Heisman Trophy odds candidate, but the offense has looked much more competent with him under center. His potential absence would be huge.

FIU Rounding Into Form

As for the Panthers, after a shaky start, they appear to be trending in the right direction. They lost a hard-fought overtime game versus unbeaten Liberty last week, after beating Louisiana Tech to open up conference play.

They have a major advantage on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Keyone Jenkins is improving every week at the QB position, and has two of the better receivers in Conference USA at his disposal. Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson have combined to haul in five of Jenkins’ nine touchdown throws, and 800 of his 1,350 passing yards.

Who else but Eric Rivers @eyb_3 https://t.co/8SY0Btu3sU pic.twitter.com/lk6I6xdiUL

— FIU Football (@FIUFootball) September 28, 2024

On the ground, Kejone Owens gives FIU some pop, averaging 4.5 yards per carry to go along with four rushing scores. That skill position group is more than talented enough to have its way with a very poor Miners’ defense.

UTEP enters play ranked 110th in defensive success rate, yielding 36 points per contest. They’ve coughed up 85 points in the last two weeks alone, and are surrendering 6.1 yards per play.

FIU vs UTEP Prediction

On the other side of the ball, UTEP passes at an above-average rate, which plays right into FIU’s strength. The Panthers pass defense is legit. They rank 21st in passing success allowed and grade out as the 16th-best coverage unit per Pro Football Focus. If you remove games against non-Power 4 programs, they rate 10th defensively in pass EPA (expected points added).

The Miners’ pass offense, meanwhile, ranks 110th or worse in both success rate and finishing drives. They’re converting only 40% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, which is one of the worst marks in the entire FBS.

UTEP 2024 Results

With or without McConnell, UTEP has reached 21 points in just two games this season, one of which was versus an FCS school. Since conference play started, they’re averaging 16 points per game, and unless they completely shift their offense to a run-heavy scheme, they have little chance of getting north of 20 points.

In terms of our best bet, under 47 makes sense, but the Miners defense might not be able to contain the Panthers attack. We should not have the same worry about the FIU defense, especially given the uncertainty of the UTEP QB situation. That brings the under on the Miners team total squarely into play.

• UTEP Team Total Under 19.5 Points (-120)

The post FIU vs UTEP Prediction, Pick & Odds for Wednesday Night College Football appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.