Fareham & Waterlooville Election Odds: Is Suella Braverman in trouble?

The General Election is now looming large and the betting markets will be fun to watch over the next 48 hours or so.

We have a few constituency markets priced up that we think are worthy of a closer look at and Neil Monnery wants to cast his eye over where he grew up, so let’s check out the latest Fareham & Waterlooville Odds…

*You can check out all of our latest General Election Odds over at betfred.com

Ah Waterlooville. The town where I spent the first 13 years of my life. Back when I was growing up though, I was represented by the MP for Havant. In 2010, the constituency boundaries were altered and it became the Meon Valley and for the third time since I came on to this planet, it has changed once more and despite being a notionally safe seat with a big name MP, according to the Electoral Calculus website, this is a four-way marginal.

The Tories and Suella Braverman are fully expected to win and a few weeks ago, this seat wouldn’t even remotely be on the radar of most pundits but as the Conservative campaign has continued to judder like a 1980s car struggling to start as it has no petrol in the tank, this constituency has suddenly become one that should be at least circled for a potential Portillo moment in the early hours of Friday morning.

One thing in Suella Braverman’s favour though is that it isn’t clear where the tactical vote should go. The betting markets indicate that it is Labour who are best placed to unseat the former Home Secretary but the tactical voting websites and all logic indicates that it is the Lib Dems who should pick up the Anti-Tory vote.

Large swathes of Hampshire could turn yellow in the early hours of Friday morning, as Sir Ed Davey’s party is in prime position to win votes in the suburbs. Eastleigh, Romsey & Southampton North, Winchester and East Hampshire are projected to return Lib Dem MPs according to the latest Survation MRP poll.

Fareham & Waterlooville though is expected to stay blue with the Tories projected to get 35% of the vote, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 24% and Reform UK 10%.

My gut feel is that Reform UK’s number is low and that could easily be in the high-teens and if that all comes from Braverman’s tally, it could well put this seat very much into play.

Back in 1997, a strong Labour performance in traditionally Lib Dem/Tory seats kept Paddy Ashdown’s party from an even bigger step forward. This is likely to happen again on Thursday, albeit at a slightly reduced scale.

Tactical voting has become more of a thing and people in leafy suburbs aren’t often voting for Labour because they are enamoured with Sir Keir Starmer and what he is offering, it is just that they want the Tories gone. This is different to that General Election because back then, people were enthused about Tony Blair and New Labour. This is why I think in some of these southern suburbs, where projections are nip and tuck, we won’t see as strong of a Labour vote than national polling suggests.

I’m not going to sit here and say that the Lib Dems at 50/1 are going to win Fareham & Waterlooville but I will say that they are by far the best value bet in this constituency. Those odds imply a 2% chance of winning, the Electoral Calculus website has it at 8% and I’d say it was nearer the 15-20% mark.

I think Suella Braverman survives but it is close and in all honesty, any of the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems winning wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to General Election day itself from our team here at Betfred Insights. Keep checking out our coverage from the Next Prime Minister markets through to key individual constituencies over the coming weeks as we follow the twists and turns from a betting perspective for the 2024 General Election in our Politics Betting Tips section.