• The hunt for Super Bowl 59 officially kicks off Thursday, September 5
• Looking to bet a team to win the Super Bowl before the season starts?
• See which Super Bowl favorites & longshots SBD’s experts believe are worth betting

As we head into NFL kickoff this week, there will be many NFL futures bets placed on who will win Super Bowl 59. If you haven’t placed yours yet (and want to), but find yourself looking up and down the Super Bowl odds with some uncertainty on who’s the best bet, I have rounded up SBD’s experts’ opinions on the matter. Each of us have offered the favorite – for the purposes of this article, I told everyone a team with odds shorter than +3000 constituted a “favorite” – we think shows the most value right now, as well as a Super Bowl longshot we think is worth a bet.

Expert Super Bowl Predictions

All four of SBD’s experts are betting on different favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the Los Angeles Rams are a popular longshot pick. You can read each expert’s analysis for their Super Bowl prediction below:

Matt McEwan’s Super Bowl Pick

• Super Bowl Favorite Matt Is Betting: Detroit Lions (+1200)
• Super Bowl Longshot Matt Is Betting: Indianapolis Colts (+8000)

I covered my favorite Super Bowl pick right now in a previous article around only eight teams having a chance to win Super Bowl 59, and it remains the same: I like the Detroit Lions at +1200 odds. (Though, as I have also said, I like the Chiefs to win it, just not at this price. Thankfully, bet365 offered me a 30% profit boost to use on a Super Bowl winner, and I have used that on KC.)

I think their defense gets a lot better with the additions of DJ Reader, Carlton Davis, and Terrion Arnold. While it may be tough to replace Jonah Jackson, I think Kevin Zeitler will prove up for the test. Add in a healthy Amon-Ra St Brown, a year of NFL experience for star tight end Sam LaPorta, as well as (maybe most importantly) Ben Johnson turning down head coaching opportunities to remain their offensive coordinator, and this is going to be a very tough team to beat.

I went a little more “longshot” with my longshot pick than the others did with the Colts at +8000. What Shane Steichen did in his first year as head coach was remarkable. Now he gets his quarterback healthy, his star running back no longer in a contract dispute, some extra depth to an already very good offensive line, and added some extra burst to the offense with Adonai Mitchell. I’m very big on Anthony Richardson, assuming he can stay healthy this year, and think the Colts will be one of the top five scoring offenses in the league this year. I think Richardson can do more in Steichen’s offense than Jalen Hurts could. (Yeah, I’m talking MVP-caliber season.)

One of the other reasons I’m betting the Colts at this price is because I think they present a unique threat to the Chiefs. The Bengals, Texans, Bills, and Dolphins are all trying to beat Kansas City in shootouts, hoping their offense is better through the air. The Colts are a smash-mouth team, who are going to lean on their offensive line to win in the trenches and run the ball down your throat with either Jonathan Taylor or Anthony Richardson. (While you can say the same thing about Baltimore, I don’t like their short price.) It’s a style that could keep Patrick Mahomes off the field for longer periods of time and potentially throw them out of their groove. I also have more confidence in Indianapolis’ coaching than any of the other teams I listed off.

Sascha Paruk’s Super Bowl Pick

• Super Bowl Favorite Sascha Is Betting: Cincinnati Bengals (+1500)
• Super Bowl Longshot Sascha Is Betting: Los Angeles Rams (+3000)

The Bengals are +1200 at most sportsbooks but still +1500 at FanDuel, which is just a 6.25% implied win probability and undervalues Joe Burrow and company. After focusing on their offensive and defensive lines in the draft and making some savvy free agency moves, PFF gave Cincinnati an “A” in its offseason grades. I have no interest betting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at +550 (15.38% implied probability) and Burrow is one other only QB I trust in the postseason, which made this a fairly easy decision. The fact that they have the sixth-easiest regular-season NFL strength of schedule doesn’t hurt, either.

The Rams are my favorite longshot for one main reason: head coach Sean McVay, who sits just behind Andy Reid in my HC power rankings. The upside for the offense is extremely high if all the key pieces can stay healthy. There’s no replacing three-time DPOY Aaron Donald on defense, but they did at least go edge/interior lineman in the first two rounds of the draft, which mitigates the loss. I don’t love the chances of any team outside the top-12 favorites this year, but with the Rams, I can at least envision McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp recreating their 2021 magic.

Zach Reger’s Super Bowl Pick

• Super Bowl Favorite Zach Is Betting: Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
• Super Bowl Longshot Zach Is Betting: Atlanta Falcons (+3000)

The Ravens played well enough to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Lamar Jackson had an MVP season, Zay Flowers now heads into Year 2, and Derrick Henry came over from the Titans to improve their run game even more. The Ravens have the talent to get back to the AFC Championship this season, and I believe they can get even further and win the Super Bowl under John Harbaugh.

The NFC South is a wide open division, and after signing Kirk Cousins, the Falcons became the favorite to win the division. When it comes to picking a Super Bowl longshot, you can look at a lot worse teams than Atlanta. Talent has never been a problem on the offensive side of the ball besides at quarterback. They fixed that with Cousins who will bring the best out of weapons Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. Their defense was also a concern, but they got Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons this offseason to address those needs. Atlanta has a good path to get to the playoffs, and if they get hot at the right time, they could make a push to the Super Bowl.

Adam Spencer’s Super Bowl Pick

• Super Bowl Favorite Adam Is Betting: Green Bay Packers (+1800)
• Super Bowl Longshot Adam Is Betting: Los Angeles Rams (+3000)

I always get nervous predicting my favorite team to do anything right, but one of these years, the Packers are going to have a postseason run that doesn’t end at the hands of the 49ers. I’m confident in Green Bay’s ability to beat anyone else other than the Niners. Since 2012, the Packers are 0-5 against San Francisco in the postseason.

But I digress … this year’s team has depth, talent and (hopefully) a competent defensive coordinator. Their youth hurt them against the 49ers last year, but now the youth should be a strength. Jordan Love, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs and Josh Jacobs form a potent offense. If the first-round picks can live up to the hype on defense, this could be a special year in Green Bay.

I’m not getting too crazy with my “longshot” pick, as the Rams barely qualify. They have the 13th-best odds on DraftKings. The case for them is simple – Sean McVay is an elite coach and the offense can be one of the league’s best if everyone stays healthy. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are one of the top foursomes in the league.

They don’t have Aaron Donald in the middle of their defensive line, which is a massive hole to fill, but they beefed up their offensive line this offseason and drafted a couple of intriguing defensive players, including Florida State’s Jared Verse.

Again, health is the key, but if this team gets to the postseason with its big names still upright, the Rams will be a tough out.

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