Sunday, 02 June, 2024
(GMT -4) Est Time: 21:45
Importance: Medium
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 51.6  |
| Previous | 51.4 |
Currency : CNY
Source of Report:
Markit (Release URL)
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results conducted on manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY , while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.
Monday, 03 June , 2024
Holiday
King’s Birthday. New Zealand
(GMT -4) Est Time: 09:45
Importance: High
Manufacturing PMI
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 50.9 |
| Previous | 50.9 |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Markit (Release URL)
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:00
Importance: High
ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 49.8 |
| Previous | 49.2 |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Institute for Supply Management (Release URL)
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), a diffusion index is calculated by adding the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with differing weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:00
Importance: High
ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 60.0 |
| Previous | 60.0 |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Institute for Supply Management (Release URL)
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%.
The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 13:00
Importance: Medium
Atlanta Fed GDP Now
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 2.7% |
| Previous | 2.7% |
Currency : USD
Source of Report:
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Release URL)
Tuesday, 04 June, 2024
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:00
Importance: High
JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 8.400M |
| Previous | 8.488M |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Release URL)
A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses’ employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations.
JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is “open” only if it meets all three of the following conditions:
1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time.
3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Wednesday, 05 June, 2024
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30
Importance: Medium
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 175k |
| Previous | 192k |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) (Release URL)
ADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government’s Labour Market Report.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 09:45
Importance: High
Services PMI
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 54.8 |
| Previous | 54.8 |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Markit (Release URL)
The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30
Importance: High
BoC Interest Rate Decision
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 4.75 % |
| Previous | 5.00 % |
Currency: CAD
Source Of Report: Bank of Canada (Release URL)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) publishes its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:00
Importance: High
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 51.0 |
| Previous | 49.4 |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Institute for Supply Management (Release URL)
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.
The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries.
A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting. Given the large proportion of the US economy engaged in the services sector, this report offers insights into the health of the overall US economy.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:00
Importance: High
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (May)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 50.4M |
| Previous | 50.4M |
Currency: CNY
Source Of Report: Institute for Supply Management (Release URL)
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.
The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:30
Importance: High
Crude Oil Inventories
| Actual | |
| Forecast | |
| Previous | -4.56M |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Energy Information Administration (Release URL)
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Thursday, 06 June, 2024
Holiday
Memorial Day. South Korea
(GMT -4) Est Time: 06:00
Importance: Medium
European Parliament Elections
Every five years EU citizens choose who represents them in the European Parliament, the directly-elected institution that defends their interests in the EU decision-making process. Countries in the EU have different voting traditions and each one may decide on the exact election day within a four-day span, from Thursday to Sunday (when most countries hold their elections). The allocation of seats is laid down in the European treaties. It takes into account the size of the population of each country, with smaller countries getting more seats than strict proportionality would imply.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30
Importance: High
Deposit Facility Rate
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 3.75% |
| Previous | 4.00% |
Currency: EUR
Source Of Report: European Central Bank (Release URL)
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30
Importance: High
ECB Interest Rate Decision (June)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 4.25% |
| Previous | 4.50% |
Currency: EUR
Source Of Report: European Central Bank (Release URL)
The European Central Bank publishes its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08.30
Importance: High
Initial Jobless Claims
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 215K |
| Previous | 219K |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Department of Labor (Release URL)
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 15:30
Importance: High
ECB Press Conference
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: European Central Bank (Release URL)
The European Central Bank (ECB) press conference is held monthly, about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. The conference is approximately an hour long and has two parts. Firstly, a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The press conference examines the factors which affected the ECB’s interest rate decision and deals with the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy. High levels of volatility can frequently be observed during the press conference as press questions lead to unscripted answers.
Friday, 07 June, 2024
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08.30
Importance: High
Average Hourly Earnings
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 0.3% |
| Previous | 0.2% |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (Release URL)
Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the amount of money businesses pay for labour, excluding the agricultural sector.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08.30
Importance: High
Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 185k |
| Previous | 175k |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Release URL)
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the prior month, excluding workers in the farming industry. Given that full employment is one of the Federal Reserves mandates, it is very closely watched.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
(GMT -4) Est Time: 08.30
Importance: High
Unemployment Rate
| Actual | |
| Forecast | 3.9% |
| Previous | 3.9% |
Currency: USD
Source Of Report: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Release URL)
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is not working, yet actively seeking employment.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.
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The post Economic Week Ahead: June 03 – 07, 2024 appeared first on Ox Securities.
