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Economic Week Ahead: August 25-31, 2024

Economic Week Ahead: August 25-31, 2024

Holiday
United Kingdom – Bank Holiday


(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30

Importance: High

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

Actual
Forecast 4.0%
Previous -6.6%

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Census Bureau (Release URL)

Durable Goods Orders reports the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

(GMT -4) Est Time: 02:00

Importance: High

German GDP (QoQ)

Actual
Forecast -0.1%
Previous 0.2%

Currency: EUR

Source Of Report:
Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (Release URL)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:30

Importance: High

CB Consumer Confidence

Actual
Forecast 100.2
Previous 100.3

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Conference Board (Release URL)

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. When consumers are optimistic, they tend to spend more which increases consumption and overall economic growth.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

(GMT -4) Est Time: 10:30

Importance: High

Crude Oil Inventories

Actual
Forecast
Previous -4.649M

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Energy Information Administration (Release URL)

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:00

Importance: High

German CPI (MoM)

Actual
Forecast 0.0%
Previous 0.3%

Currency: EUR

Source Of Report:
Federal Statistical Office Germany (Release URL)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. As Germany has the largest output of any country in the euro-zone, the European Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR


(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30

Importance: High

GDP (QoQ)

Actual
Forecast 2.8%
Previous 1.4%

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (Release URL)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 8:30

Importance: High

Initial Jobless Claims

Actual
Forecast 234k
Previous 232k

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Department of Labor (Release URL)

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

(GMT -4) Est Time: 05:00

Importance: High

CPI (YoY)

Actual
Forecast 2.2%
Previous 2.6%

Currency: EUR

Source Of Report:
Eurostat (Release URL)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30

Importance: High

Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

Actual
Forecast 0.2%
Previous 0.2%

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (Release URL)

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Unlike the fixed-weight CPI, PCE is chain-weighted and thus adjusts to changing consumer behaviour. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and thus receives greater attention.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 08:30

Importance: High

Core PCE Price Index (YoY)

Actual
Forecast
Previous 2.6%

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (Release URL)

The Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 09:45

Importance: High

 Chicago PMI

Actual
Forecast 44.4
Previous 45.3

Currency: USD

Source Of Report:
ISM-Chicago, Inc (Release URL)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms around the Chicago area. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some assistance in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.


(GMT -4) Est Time: 21:30

Importance: High

Manufacturing PMI

Actual
Forecast 49.2
Previous 49.4

Currency: CNY

Source Of Report:
China Logistics Information Center (Release URL)

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY , while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.


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The post Economic Week Ahead: August 25-31, 2024 appeared first on Ox Securities.

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