• We’ve made our early Indiana vs Notre Dame prediction for the College Football Playoff first round
• The latest CFP odds favor the Fighting Irish by over a touchdown at home
• Read below for our Indiana vs Notre Dame prediction, picks, and odds

The College Football Playoff kicks off with a blockbuster matchup between in-state foes, as the No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) travel to South Bend to take on the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1). The Irish are laying 7.5 points at home in this one, with the total sitting at 50.5 points.

This marks the first-ever meeting between these programs in the playoff, adding even more intrigue to what was already shaping up as one of the most compelling first-round clashes.

The Fighting Irish are looking to reestablish themselves as a national powerhouse, while the Hoosiers are out to prove their magical season is no fluke. Oddsmakers are siding with the Irish, but the sharp money is going the other way…

Indiana vs Notre Dame Odds

The spread opened at Notre Dame -8.5 but has since moved to -7.5, with the Hoosiers garnering early betting action. The total has ticked down from 51.5 to 50.5, indicating bettors are expecting a lower-scoring affair.

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Hoosiers Betting Analysis

Indiana has been the feel-good story of the college football season, rattling off 11 wins under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers’ explosive offense, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke (71.5% completions, 27-4 TD-INT), ranks 1st in success rate and 2nd in EPA/Play – and boy, has it worked.

However, the Hoosiers did struggle against elite defenses in Ohio State and Michigan, totaling just 35 points in those contests. Their methodical approach could face another stiff test against a stingy Notre Dame defense. Establishing the run (173.6 YPG) and hitting on selective deep shots will be key.

Kurtis Rourke finds Omar Cooper for another @IndianaFootball TD pic.twitter.com/B4lmJLCH04

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 1, 2024

Defensively, Indiana has been surprisingly stout, ranking 2nd in EPA/play allowed. They’ve been vulnerable to the pass at times (61.6% completions allowed) but have excelled at limiting explosive plays (4th in FBS). Winning on early downs and forcing the Irish into third-and-longs will be crucial.

The Hoosiers are 9-3 ATS this season, consistently rewarding bettors who have backed them. They’re 8-1 ATS when generating 7+ explosive plays offensively.

Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Notre Dame has rebounded from an early-season stumble against Northern Illinois to rattle off 10 straight wins. The Irish lean on an old-school, smash-mouth ground attack (224.8 YPG) that ranks 2nd in EPA/rush, consistently winning at the line of scrimmage (3.94 yards after contact per attempt).

Quarterback Riley Leonard (2,092 passing yards, 16-5 TD-INT, 721 rushing yards, 14 TDs) has been solid if unspectacular. The Irish secondary did show some cracks against USC (360 yards allowed), which could be problematic against the veteran pass-first QB Kurtis Rourke.

Notre Dame’s defense is anchored by an elite secondary that leads the nation in passing success rate and completion rate allowed. However, their run defense has been suspect at times, ranking 129th in stuff rate. If the Hoosiers can stay ahead of the chains on the ground, they could find room to operate.

The Irish are 9-2-1 ATS this season, including 6-2-1 as favorites of a touchdown or more. Their 4-3 ATS mark in South Bend suggests they don’t always dominate inferior opponents as expected.

Early Indiana vs Notre Dame Prediction

This strength vs strength matchup pits Indiana’s dynamic offense against Notre Dame’s stingy defense. The Hoosiers have the firepower to test the Irish secondary that just got torched by USC, while Notre Dame’s punishing run game draws a favorable matchup against an Indiana front that has shown some cracks.

The total has ticked down from 51.5 to 50.5, as both teams’ ball-control offenses and strong defenses point toward a lower-scoring affair. The weather forecast and potential conservative game plans should contribute to a methodical pace.

• Early Picks: Indiana +7.5 | Under 50.5

Here’s the thing: The Hoosiers have consistently exceeded expectations this season, and getting over a touchdown in what should be a competitive game looks enticing. Don’t be surprised if Indiana keeps this one close throughout.

Unless we see a bunch of turnovers or explosive plays, this one should stay under the number while coming down to the final few possessions. I’m grabbing both Indiana +7.5 and the Under before the lines move further.

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