- The Rams are 1.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in Week 10
- Tyreek Hill is questionable with a wrist injury
- Check out the latest Dolphins vs Rams odds, prediction, and picks for MNF
Fresh off three straight victories, the LA Rams (4-4) host the struggling Miami Dolphins (2-7) on Monday Night Football. Online sportsbooks expect the Rams’ winning streak to continue, pegging them as 1.5-point home chalk in the latest NFL odds.
Miami Dolphins vs LA Rams Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +1.5 (-108) | +105 | O 48.5 (-110) |
| LA Rams | -1.5 (-112) | -125 | U 48.5 (-110) |
LA is also a -125 moneyline favorite in a game with a total of 48.5. This spread has fluctuated between -1 and -2.5 all week, but now appears to have settled at the current number. As it stands, 54% of the spread tickets and 56% of the handle is backing the Rams.
Odds as of November 10 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo code before placing a bet on Monday Night Football.
Total-wise, the over/under is actually down tw0 points from its opener per the NFL public betting percentages, which presents an interesting betting opportunity – more on that later.
Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Dolphins vs Rams Injury Report
One reason bettors may be pessimistic on this total going over is the health of Tyreek Hill. Miami’s star receiver popped up on the injury report with a wrist injury that reportedly dates back to August. Hill is said to have aggravated his wrist last week, and now his status is reportedly up in the air. As we’ll discuss, that would be extremely unfortunate, because the Rams secondary has been eviscerated by wide receivers this season.
The Rams meanwhile, are set to receive a gigantic boost to their offensive line. Interior starters Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson are set to return against Miami, as is tackle Joe Noteboom. All three went down in LA’s season opener, and their absence has been enormous.
The Rams offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking per Pro Football Focus, putting Matthew Stafford in the line of fire all season. Stafford has been pressured on 32% of his drop backs so far, resulting in a single TD pass and 5 interceptions on those snaps.
Rams Offense on a Roll
Despite the heat constantly being in his face, Stafford has kept LA in games with some top level quarterback play. He finally got Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back two weeks ago, and the offense took flight. They put up 30 and 26 points respectively in those contests, and looked like a legitimate Super Bowl odds dark horse. They raised their offensive DVOA ranking from 21st to 11th, and a healthy offensive line is only going to make the Rams more dangerous.
When Matthew Stafford gets into Canton, this will be on the highlight tape. THIS THROW IS UNREAL & ITS AN OVERTIME GAME WINNER ON THE ROAD pic.twitter.com/hml2kh1jkj
— Dalton Feely (@dfeely14) November 4, 2024
LA has the most passing yards and completions when targeting wide receivers this season, but they’re not a one-trick pony. Kyren Williams has been one of the most productive running backs in football, scoring 10 total touchdowns in eight games. Miami has been a goldmine for opposing running backs this season, surrendering the second most touchdowns to that position entering Week 10.
Dolphins Can Punch Back With or Without Hill
On the other side of the ball, we can expect Miami to find success through the air. The Dolphins offense was an absolute train wreck while Tua Tagovailoa was injured, but since he’s returned they’ve looked sharp. Their offense ranks second in the NFL over the last two weeks in expected points added, and have a very favorable matchup on Monday.
The Rams defense ranks 26th in completion rate against wide receiver targets 10+ yards down field, and 29th in yards per pass attempt. If we extrapolate that sample size even wider, LA’s defense looks worse. On throws 20+ yards downfield, they’ve allowed the third highest completion rate, and the most touchdowns to enemy wideouts.
Rams Defense vs 20+ Yard Throws to Wide Receivers
| CMP% | YPA | TD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th | 29th | 32nd |
There’s few players as explosive as Hill on those types of targets, but even if he sits, Miami’s other speedster Jaylen Waddle can take advantage. Waddle found the end zone last week for the first time this season, and is just two years removed from averaging 18.1 yards per reception.
Dolphins vs Rams Prediction
The Dolphins can also find explosive plays in the run game with De’Von Achane. The second-year back has over 100 total yards in back-to-back games, to go along with three touchdowns.
Bottom line, both offenses are in a fantastic position to succeed, which brings the over into play. We’re already getting a discount on the opening line, and the trends support that side as well. Miami is 2-1 to the over in games Tagovailoa has started and finished, and 8-3 in Tua’s last 11 starts as a road ‘ dog.
Dolphins vs Rams Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at
BetMGM
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