• The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the 2023 NLCS on Monday, Oct. 16
• Two aces go head to head as Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound opposite Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler
•  See the D-Backs vs Phillies odds, player props, and picks for Game 1

One streak is coming to an end on Monday night when the Arizona Diamondbacks (89-78, 45-40 away), who are undefeated in the 2023 postseason, face the Philadelphia Phillies (95-73, 53-32 home), who have won nine straight National League playoff games at home.

First pitch in Game 1 of the NLCS goes at 8:07 pm ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 1 Odds

The Phillies are -162 home favorites with Zack Wheeler on the mound and +130 on the runline to win by multiple runs in Monday’s MLB odds. The Diamondbacks are +136 road underdogs to keep their perfect playoff record intact.

Odds as of Oct. 16 at Caesars. Get a Caesars sign-up bonus to wager on D-Backs vs Phillies Game 1 on Monday, Oct. 16.

The World Series odds heading into the League Championship Series list the Phillies as the second-favorite at +202, while the D-Backs are last among the four remaining teams at +466. This remains true even after Houston dropped Game 1 of the ALCS last night. When the NLCS matchup was set, Philly opened as a -155 favorite, but the NL Pennant odds have since shifted pretty significantly to the Phillies, who enter Game 1 as -187 favorites on average to advance in the MLB playoff bracket.

ARI vs PHI Game 1 Starting Pitchers

The Diamondbacks had four full days off after sweeping the Dodgers, while the Phillies had three after taking out the top-seeded Braves 3-1 in the NLDS. One result of the ample time off is that both teams can trot out their aces for Game 1 of the series, with Zac Gallen going for Arizona and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia.

Zac Gallen vs Zack Wheeler

Just as he was last postseason, Wheeler has been excellent in the 2023 playoffs. In two starts combined, he’s surrendered just eight hits, one walk, and three earned runs over 13 innings while racking up 18 strikeouts. During Philly’s run to the NL Pennant last year, he pitched a team-leading 35.2 innings while posting a 2.78 ERA and a sensational 0.73 WHIP, which he has somehow lowered to 0.69 in 2023.

Wheeler faced Arizona twice in the regular season. He went six innings in both outings, allowing four earned runs in total on 12 hits and two walks. Overall, his stats against the D-Backs hitters are mediocre at best. Most concerningly, Arizona’s lineup has a .511 slugging percentage off Wheeler in 90 total at-bats. Five different players have taken him deep. Christian Walker has the best history against the Philadelphia ace, going 9-of-17 (.529 avg) with one home run, three doubles, and four RBI.

Gallen has also made two rock-solid starts in the 2023 postseason – against the Brewers and Dodgers – combining to go 11.1 innings while surrendering four runs on 10 hits and five walks. He only made one start against Philadelphia in the regular season, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-5 extra-innings loss.

His career numbers against the Phillies lineup is actually better than Wheeler’s versus the D-Backs. Philly hitters are slashing a minimal .236/.312/.348 off Gallen in 69 total at-bats with two home runs and four RBI. Only Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have taken him yard.

Arizona vs Philadelphia Player Props: Game 1

The MLB player props for Game 1 of the NLCS set Wheeler with higher strikeout and total-outs over/unders than his Arizona counterpart. Wheeler is favored to reach at least seven Ks and record 17 outs, while Gallen is favored to stay under 5.5 Ks and 15.5 outs.

Wheeler recorded 18 outs in both of his regular-season starts against Arizona, while Gallen lasted for 17 outs in his lone regular-season start against Philadelphia.

D-Backs vs Phillies Game 1 Prediction

Like Game 1 between Texas and Houston in the ALCS, the NLCS opener should be another pitchers’ duel. Both Gallen and Wheeler have looked steady in the 2023 postseason after excellent regular seasons. Wheeler’s history against the Arizona hitters is some cause for concern, but his playoff pedigree provides ample comfort, as does the ample rest since his last start a full week ago.

Note that DraftKings and FanDuel have dissimilar odds for the first 5 innings over/under. DK lists under 3.5 runs at -105, while FanDuel has it at plus-money at +105.

The only hitter-centric prop I am taking today is Walker to record at least one hit at -140 odds. As mentioned, Walker has hammered Wheeler in a not-insignificant sample size. He’s also hitting .294 in the postseason with five hits in 17 at-bats along with a spectacular 1.023 OPS.

ARI vs PHI Game 1 Picks:

• First 5 innings under 3.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
• Gallen over 15.5 outs (+115)
• Christian Walker over 0.5 hits (-140)

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