The latest race in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series comes from Bristol Motor Speedway. Denny Hamlin leads the betting to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday, and boy does he need a win. In our latest NASCAR betting picks, we tell you if Hamlin can do it.
- What: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
- Where: Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, Tennessee
- When: Saturday, September 21st, 2024
- Time: 7 pm ET
- Laps: 500
- Distance: 266.5 Miles
The big picture
The 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race is the last race in the Round of 16 Cup Series playoffs. After this race is completed, four drivers are eliminated, with the remaining 12 qualifying for the next stage.
Three of the drivers in danger of missing the cut are Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton, and Martin Truex Jr. Also outside of the top 12 is none other than Denny Hamlin.
Hamlin had another night to forget in the Round of 16 playoffs last Sunday at the Glen. The JGR driver could only manage a 23rd-place finish to go along with his equally disappointing 24th place at the Quaker State 400 the previous weekend.
The upshot is that Hamlin now sits in 13th place in the points table, six points below the cut-off line. In his sights ahead of the Bristol race are Chase Briscoe (11th) and Ty Gibbs (12th).
At the other end of the points table, Joey Logano is still the only driver to have locked in his Round of 12 place.
Logano punched his ticket with victory at the Quaker State 400, and with the outside-of-the-playoffs Chris Buescher taking the checkered flag at The Glen last Sunday, nobody else confirmed their place in the next round alongside Logano.
Christopher Bell is the second in the points table. Bell continues to impress, and he backed up his 4th-place finish in the Quaker with a solid if not unspectacular 14th-place finish at The Glen.
Alongside Logano and Bell in the top five are Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, and Daniel Suarez. Not the names we would have expected at the start of the playoffs.
Bristol is the last chance for the drivers to claim a spot in the Round of 12. So it promises to be a nervy and entertaining night if nothing else. Now, let’s take a look at what the bookmakers are saying.
NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting
Denny Hamlin is a man under pressure who could badly do with a win.
Luckily for Hamlin, Bristol is the ideal venue for him. He has won here in his last two starts and, overall, has taken the checkered flag three times at Bristol. More recently, Hamlin has four successive top-10 finishes.
To remain in the fight for the 2024 championship, Hamlin has to gain over six points to pass either Chase Briscoe or Ty Gibbs. He must also hope no one from behind him can overtake him on the points table, as well.
Hamlin should feel confident he can do that at Bristol. His record is second to none and that is why the best NASCAR betting sites have him as their betting favorite to win the race at +350.
Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are the joint-second favorites at +600. Ty Gibbs at +700 is the only other driver under +1000. Of all four favorites, only Bell is comfortably positioned in the points table.
More Bass Pro Shops Night Race betting is on our NASCAR odds table. For more information about the Cup Series, check out our guide on how to bet on NASCAR.
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
| Denny Hamlin | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Christopher Bell | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| William Byron | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Chris Buescher | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Chase Elliott | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Joey Logano | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Ross Chastain | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Josh Betty | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Michael McDowell | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Betonline | Bovada | BetUS |
Betting to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series
There’s been no real change in the betting to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series from the previous week.
After the Quaker State 400, Christopher Bell was made the +400 favorite to win the championship. Bell has drifted back out to +450 after The Glen. There’s no obvious reason for this. So it is likely down to the weight of money wagered on him.
Also on +450 is Kyle Larson. The 2021 champion is followed by Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. Both are priced at +500.
Ryan Blaney is at +600, William Byron at +800, and Chase Elliott at +1000.
Further back in the field, Martin Truex Jr. is +3000. Brad Keselowski and Ty Gibbs are +4000, with Austin Cindric at +6600, and Daniel Suarez at +8000.
2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Winner Betting Picks and Predictions
Denny Hamlin claims the 0.533-mile oval remains his favorite track. But even though he has an outstanding record here, can we risk backing him to win at just +350?
Kyle Larson also has a good record at Bristol with one win and four top-five finishes over the past four seasons. Larson is +600 and would represent a far better-value wager.
And something similar can be said about Christopher Bell, who has two top-fives and three top-10s, in his last four Cup Series outings at this venue.
We are going to hedge Larson and Bell for our betting picks.
For a small outside wager, we are looking at William Byron. He may have had a bad run in recent weeks, but Byron has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four outings at Bristol. To win, Byron is +1600. To finish in the top three, he is +300.
We are backing William Byron to finish in the top three.
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