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Dana Open 2023 Tips: Minjee leads our picks for LPGA

Dana Open 2023 Tips: Minjee leads our picks for LPGA

Jamie Worsley is back with another LPGA Tour preview for the Dana Open, after picking up another place return at the US Women’s Open. Here is his usual comprehensive preview and four more selections. 

Dana Open 2023 Tips

  • 3 pts Minjee Lee each way (1/5 – 7 places) – 14/1 
  • 1.5 pts In-Gee Chun each way (1/5 – 7 places) – 33/1 
  • 1 pt Ariya Jutanugarn each way (1/5 – 6 places) – 50/1 
  • 0.75 pts Bailey Tardy each way (1/5 – 7 places) – 200/1

 

What a fine sight it was to witness the best players in the world attack the iconic Pebble Beach last week and fitting that we ended the week with an impressively nerveless winner in Allisen Corpuz, who went out and won the title rather than merely outlasting her competitors.

The Hawaiian sat no worse than 3rd at the culmination of any round and produced a composed and measured final round to win not just her first major, but her first professional title in rather comfortable fashion by three strokes. Holding off a flying and hugely entertaining Charley Hull, along with veteran major winner Jiyai Shin as her closest challengers.

Her win made it three new major winners in three events this year following Lilia Vu winning the Chevron Championship and Ruoning Yin taking the Women’s PGA Championship, which should act as motivation for other non-major winners in our impending final two majors over the coming weeks.

The next of those comes in two weeks at the Evian Championship but first our attention turns back to the LPGA, as we head to Ohio for the Dana Open at Highland Meadows Golf Club.

Latest Betfred Dana Open 2023 Odds

Tournament History

The Dana Open has been a fixture on the LPGA calendar for over thirty years, having first been staged in 1984. It has taken place in every year during this period barring 1986 and 2012, when it was cancelled due to other high profile golf tournaments taking place in the area that week.

The first four editions of the tournament were staged at Glengarry Country Club before moving to Highland Meadows Golf Club in 1989. Where it has stayed ever since.

Korean golfing legend, Se Ri Pak dominated the event through the late 90s to the late 00s, winning the title on five occasions (1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2007) in the space of nine years.

The first of her victories in 1998 saw her blow the field away by nine strokes with a winning score of -23; earning her both records for highest winning score and winning margin that still stand today. In defending the title in more challenging conditions the following year, she remains the only player to win the Dana Open in back-to-back years.

There are a further three players who have won this more than once: Penny Hammel (1985, 1989), Kelly Robbins (1994, 1997) and most recently, star New Zealander, Lydia Ko won the tournament in 2014 and 2016.

Last year saw Mexico’s Gaby Lopez claim her third LPGA victory, as she ran out a one-shot winner, denying Megan Khang a breakthrough LPGA title. She returns to defend this week.

The Course

Highland Meadows Golf Club was originally designed by Sandy Alves in 1925, though went through a renovation at the hands of Shawn Smith in 2016, with the predominant changes being a redesigned 18th hole and updating of the driving range. Whilst in 2019/20, the course went through further changes, with extensive renovations done on bunkers around the property.

The course plays as a par 71, measuring 6598 yards and unless the weather has its say, it can play pretty simple, with many winning scores here regularly approaching 20-under-par. It possesses an average winning score of around -18 over the last six renewals.

Though the course is predominantly tree-lined – densely so on certain sides of the fairways – it rarely encloses the entire hole. With few truly penal fairway bunkers and rough that isn’t too troublesome, there’s little to cause players too much concern off the tee, despite the existence of some narrow fairways.

In contrast to this, the small poa/bentgrass greens are well protected by sand, whilst with no lack of false fronts and run offs, they can punish your less precise iron shots. However they typically run pretty slow and with plenty of rain in this week’s forecast, they should be very receptive this week.

This course has a really exciting finish, with two of the three par 5s coming on your final two holes. Measuring 527 and 515 yards, they’re both gettable but are among some of the more well-protected holes on the course, with the layup areas particularly dangerous should you choose not to go for the green in two. With water also in-play on 18 – and around nine other holes on the course – it’s a finish which can yield birdies+ or disaster.

The Stats

Key Stats:

  • SG: Approach
  • Greens-in-Regulation
  • SG: Putting
  • Driving Distance
  • Par 5 Scoring

With small greens that are well protected, I expect strong iron play and green-hitting ability to be the most important factors this week.

Fortunately we have the benefit of stats for this individual event last year and it shows how the top 3 players all performed well in these areas. Winner, Gaby Lopez ranked 30th in approach and 13th in GIR; Megan Khang in 2nd ranked 19th in approach and 23rd in GIR; whilst in 3rd, Germany’s Caroline Masson ranked 6th in approach and 36th in GIR. These are stats that can all be upgraded too, as they include players who missed the cut.

This need for strong iron play was not just a one-off for 2022. 2021 winner, Nasa Hataoka and 2020 champion, Danielle Kang are both strong in approach, whilst in the year she won, Kang ranked 6th on tour in GIR. Lydia Ko is another past winner not short of class in this area; Lexi Thompson and Jodi Ewart Shadoff are other past contenders who rate highly in approach.

Having said that, the most telling stat last year was how effectively the leading trio putted. All ranked inside the top 8 on the greens, with Lopez the 3rd-best putter of the week. If playing conditions are kind this week and it turns into a birdie-fest, players will need to get hot on the greens; those with proven ability on poa or poa/bent mix having the edge.

With the lack of penalty aside these fairways, I do think this course can be overpowered, particularly on a week where fairways are likely to be soft. Plenty of bombers have gone well here, indeed last year’s winner, Lopez is not lacking for distance off the tee.

Elizabeth Szokol was 2nd in 2021 and is long off-the-tee, ranking 20th in driving distance that year. The likes of 2019 winner, Sei-young Kim, multiple runner-up finisher, Lexi Thompson and 2018’s 3rd-place finisher, Brooke Henderson are all powerful players, or at least they were at the time they contended.

Finally, with how pivotally placed the par 5s are, those able to score best on them when under pressure on Sunday are bound to have an edge.

Correlating Events (Courses)

Portland Classic (Columbia Edgewater Country Club)

Columbia Edgewater plays host to another often low-scoring contest in the Portland Classic. With similarly small poa greens and loosely tree-lined fairways that present comparable challenges to Highland Meadows, it can provide a good comp for us this week.

Past Dana Open winners: Nasa Hataoka, Jasmine Suwannapura, I K Kim and Chella Choi have all recorded top 5 finishes there.

Esther Henseleit has finished 6th in the Dana Open and recorded two top 5s in the Portland Classic; Sarah Schmelzel has finished 4th here and has a 6th-place finish there; whilst Carlota Ciganda has numerous top 10s here and a 5th in Portland.

Arkansas Championship (Pinnacle Country Club)

As another loosely tree-lined course with plenty of water in-play, Pinnacle Country Club has developed strong form-ties with this week’s event.

Nasa Hataoka, So Yeon Ryu, Lydia Ko and Na Yeon Choi have all won both events. 2020 Dana Open winner, Danielle Kang has finished runner-up on more than one occasion in Arkansas; 2015 winner, Chella Choi has multiple top 10s there, as does Sei Young Kim.

Mina Harigae, Aditi Ashok, Carlota Ciganda and Jenny Shin are among a long list of players with form across the two courses.

2018-2022 LA Open/2023 LA Championship (Wilshire Country Club)

Wilshire Country Club is a more difficult course though often requires a premium on precision iron-play due to the small poa greens and with generous fairways, regularly sees big-hitters go well.

Nasa Hataoka has won at both courses; other former Dana Open winners, Sei Young Kim, Gaby Lopez and Chella Choi have all recorded top 6s.

Emma Talley has finished 5th there to go with multiple 5th-place finishes here; Aditi Ashok and Yu Liu offering further form-ties across the two venues.

The Weather

The start of the week is forecast to be awash with thunderstorms, which may well carry over into tournament play on Thursday and potentially over the weekend. A usually receptive course will be even more receptive and with winds not too strong, I’d expect some low scoring this week.

The Field

Our newest major champion, Allisen Corpuz will be teeing it up this week as a member of the world’s top 10 for the first time in her career. She is one of just five top 10 players in attendance in Ohio; all headed by the #1 ranked player, Jin Young Ko, who is making her debut this week.

Rose Zhang has finished no worse than 9th on her first three pro starts and will be looking for more of the same at Highland Meadows. She is joined by two of her former amateur peers in the shape of ex #27 amateur Erica Shepherd, who makes her pro debut this week and current amateur, Ireland’s Lauren Walsh, who has been as high as #10 in the WAGR.

Golf Betting Odds

Selections

Incredibly, on just her fourth professional start, Rose Zhang enters this week as a 6/1 favourite, three points shorter in the betting than world #1, Jin Young Ko. For all her talents are clear, I’ll be happy to watch on in amazement should she go and win again this week without a single penny on her.

Jin Young Ko has disappointed a little in the past two majors and is easily passed over, whilst China’s Xiyu Lin also looks short enough at 10/1, despite the strength of her form.

My eyes this week are drawn to a pair of major champions at the 14/1 mark, Brooke Henderson and Minjee Lee, and it’s the Australian that gets the nod from me as my headline selection.

 

3 pts Minjee Lee each way (1/5 – 7 places)

14/1

 

Following her slow start to the year, last year’s US Open champion is starting to get back to her best. After finishing 2nd in the Founders Cup for her best finish of the year so far, Lee has reeled off a further four consecutive top 20s; finishing 20th and 13th in the two majors in the last three weeks.

She comes into this off the back of an excellent ball-striking performance at Pebble Beach last week, ranking 3rd in approach, 13th in GIR and 18th off-the-tee.

These stats are representative of her season as a whole, where she ranks 3rd in approach and 6th in GIR on the LPGA. Her credentials for this challenge are further enhanced by a ranking of 25th in par 5 scoring and she’s very much more about power than accuracy off-the-tee, ranking 37th in driving distance.

Her ball-striking prowess has enabled Lee to form a good record here at Highland Meadows. After finishing 22nd on debut in 2015, she has played a further three times and hit the top 20 twice, recording a best of 4th in 2020.

She also has a strong book of correlating form, with a win in the 2019 LA Open at Wilshire Country Club the most encouraging piece of form; 2nd and 3rd-place finishes in Arkansas and a 4th in Portland increases my confidence in her chances.

Though there’s some quality near the top of the betting, the field is lacking a little depth. With that I thought this eight-time LPGA and two-time major winner looked value in this field and with so much in her favour, she should have a big say this week.

 

1.5 pts In-Gee Chun each way (1/5 – 7 places)

33/1

 

I’ve decided to give In Gee Chun another shot this week. She finished 27th at Pebble Beach last week though sat near the top of the leaderboard throughout much of the event and again hit the ball well. However, it was the improved performance of the putter that made her of extra appeal here.

As mentioned last week, Chun has had a light schedule this year but when she’s played, she’s played well. That 27th last week was her third consecutive top 30 in this year’s majors after finishing 18th in the Chevron Championship and 24th in the Women’s PGA Championship previously.

These performances have been largely engineered by her ball-striking game, particularly her approach play, where she ranks 12th on the LPGA this season. A similar level of performance in this area was replicated last week, as she ranked 11th in approach and was 21st in GIR but it was her positive strokes-gained putting performance, in which she ranked 36th,  that offered the most encouragement; as the area that had very much hindered her progress in other events she’s played this year.

Chun’s record here is solid enough, having made the cut in each of her three previous visits, two of which have resulted in top 30 finishes.

A 2nd in the Portland Classic indicates she is capable of going even better here and if she keeps up the gains that she found on the greens last week, whilst keeping the irons as dialled in as they’ve been so far this year, the three-time major winner can find her best finish of the year this week.

 

1 pt Ariya Jutanugarn each way (1/5 – 6 places)

50/1

 

Ariya Jutanugarn missed the cut in the US Women’s Open last week but her form prior to that had been encouraging and she looks good value in this field at a place she’s gone very well at before.

Ariya started the year solidly, with four finishes of 16th or better in her first eight starts, though she took her form to another level when 2nd in the Meijer Classic three starts ago – her best finish since winning the Honda LPGA Thailand at the start of 2021.

She followed that with another promising display at Baltusrol in the Women’s PGA when 24th, before that missed cut last week.

The putter has carried her a little this year, an area she ranks 9th. Though she has started to find some form with her approach play, ranking 26th when 2nd in the Meijer Classic and 23rd when finishing 24th in the PGA. She’s also hitting plenty of greens and as someone who can score well on the par 5s and is not short of distance off-the-tee, I like her game for this test.

After missing the cut on debut in 2015, Jutanugarn has developed a good record at Highland Meadows. She returned to finish 2nd the year following that in 2016 and after a five-year absence from the event, she’s finished 15th and 16th the last two years.

With twelve LPGA wins to her name – two of them majors – Jutanugarn is one of the most prolific winners in this field and with her missed cut last week easily forgiven due to the difficulty of the challenge, I’m expecting her to bounce back this week.

 

0.75 pts Bailey Tardy each way (1/5 – 7 places)

200/1

 

Though Bailey Tardy’s excellent performance at Pebble Beach last week would’ve been a shock to many, she’s a player with plenty of upside and I’m hoping that performance can prove to be a springboard for bigger and better things for the former #5 amateur.

Among Tardy’s amateur highlights is a win in the 2016 NCAA Bryan Regional, which contributed to her winning the SEC Freshman of the Year for 2016; whilst she also won the Georgia Amateur Championship in 2018, the same year she finished 9th in the US Women’s Amateur.

Since turning pro, she’s spent most of her time on the Epson Tour, winning the Copper Rock Championship in 2021 and has recorded multiple other top 5s. Tardy then earned her card for a rookie season on the LPGA this year by finishing 2nd in the LPGA Q-Series at the end of last year.

She’s largely struggled for form on the LPGA this year, missing five cuts in nine starts, though did show promise when 23rd in the LOTTE Championship in Hawaii a couple of months back. Although , that was ultimately not enough to suggest she was going to do what she did last week.

Tardy finished a hugely impressive 4th at Pebble Beach; an event in which she led after round two and sat no worse than 4th at the end of any one round. She achieved this with a field-leading approach performance and also hit more greens than anyone else; complimenting this with a top 25 driving display.

The driving performance was certainly no surprise as she ranks top 30 on the LPGA this year off-the-tee and is also one of the longest hitters on tour, ranking 4th in driving distance. Whilst the approach play was by far her best of the year, she has produced some strong performances in this area too.

It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise should she struggle with the comedown after such an exhilarating experience at the US Women’s Open. However she’s a player with bags of potential and if able to replicate the quality, power-packed ball-striking performance that she managed last week, she’d look a very suitable player for this challenge and well worth a shot at a huge price.

 

 

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The post Dana Open 2023 Tips: Minjee leads our picks for LPGA appeared first on Betfred Blog.

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