- We’ve simulated a full CFB season in the College Football 25 video game
- In our College Football 25 simulation, NC State wins the National Championship as a +1300 longshot
- Below, see the best CFP futures bets to make based on the video game simulation
The highly anticipated College Football 25 video game has finally hit consoles, giving fans the chance to play as their favorite CFB players and simulate entire seasons.
We’ve run a full College Football 25 season simulation to uncover some intriguing CFB future bets you may want to consider. The Heisman winner is no surprise, but the national champion is a true shocker.
Here are the most intriguing bets to consider based on the results of our College Football 25 simulation.
Jump To: Week 1 Results | Win Totals | CFP Teams | National Championship | Heisman
Notable Week 1 Simulation Results
| Simulated Result | Spread Winner | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State 14 – Colorado 59 | Colorado -8 | 37 |
| North Carolina 38 – Minnesota 7 | North Carolina +2 | 33 |
| Western Michigan 31 vs Wisconsin 24 | Western Michigan +24 | 31 |
| Kent State 20 vs Pittsburgh 13 | Kent State +23.5 | 30.5 |
| UTEP 31 vs Nebraska 28 | UTEP +28 | 31 |
| Kennesaw State 28 vs UTSA 20 | Kennesaw State +23 | 31 |
| Colorado State 21 vs Texas 24 | Colorado St +36.5 | 33.5 |
| Nevada 33 vs Troy 14 | Nevada +16 | 35 |
Hammer Colorado vs NDSU?
Colorado is once again receiving plenty of hype heading into the college football season. Deion Sanders and company are entering their first season in the Big 12, and EA Sports is expecting the team to shatter its win total of 5.5.
According to our simulation, the Buffaloes kick off the CFB season in style, blowing out FCS powerhouse North Dakota State by a 59-14 score. The actual betting line for this game is Colorado -8, indicating this could be a great bet if you trust EA’s simulation and team metrics.
While I do actually think CU will exceed their win total of 5.5, I can’t recommend betting them to cover eight points against NDSU. Yes, the Bison are in a lower division, but Matt Entz’s team has a proven track record of success against FBS competition.
The Bison, winners of nine FCS national titles since 2011, boast an impressive 9-4 record against FBS foes. Their last such matchup was a narrow 31-28 loss at Arizona in 2022. I expect their Week 1 game against Colorado to be very tight.
SPORTSBOOK
North Carolina Takes Care of Minnesota as an Underdog
Last season, these two teams played in Week 3, and North Carolina won 31-13 at home. Even though the Tar Heels are on the road in 2024, College Football 25 has a similar result in the simulation. North Carolina is a two-point underdog to the Golden Gophers, but the simulation has them winning outright 38-7.
The Tar Heels lost Drake Maye, who was selected third overall in the NFL Draft, but the offense still has plenty of talent. Former LSU and Texas A&M quarterback Max Johnson takes over for the Tar Heels under center. Then, they are returning running back Omarion Hampton who rushed for over 1500 yards last season as well as some key receivers and tight ends from last year.
Minnesota had a down year in 2023, but PJ Fleck should have his team motivated in Week 1 at home. They have question marks on offense with New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer under center, but North Carolina’s defense is not one to be afraid of. The Tar Heels have a new defensive coordinator to replace Gene Chizik, and they certainly cannot be worse than they were last season. It will be interesting to see how Minnesota’s offense and North Carolina’s defense match up in Week 1.
Is Texas Back?
After making the College Football Playoff last year, expectations are even more sky-high than normal for the Longhorns. Texas opens their season with Colorado State and are 36-point favorites over the Rams. Our College Football 25 simulation has Texas winning, but only by three points. While I am not sure the game will be within a field goal, this game will certainly be within 36.
Quinn Ewers on Michigan “the team up north” pic.twitter.com/yoyovL20XD
— Menace 2 Sports (@Menace2Sports) July 17, 2024
There is no question that Texas is the stronger and more talented team, but it is Week 1. There is always a chance that Quinn Ewers and co. come out slow to start the new season. Even if they play how they are capable of from the jump, this is a look-ahead spot for the Longhorns.
In Week 2, they go on the road to play Michigan. This means many in the building have probably already counted this one as a win, and Texas will not want to show too much of their offense. Colorado State is no slouch, so they should keep this Week 1 matchup interesting, to say the least. Colorado State +36 offers tremendous value to bettors.
Notable College Football Win Totals Results
| Team | CFB Win Total | Simulated Wins | O/U | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 9.5 | 5 | Under | -4.5 |
| Louisville | 8.5 | 4 | Under | -4.5 |
| Iowa | 8 | 4 | Under | -4.0 |
| Northwestern | 4.5 | 9 | Over | 4.5 |
| Houston | 3.5 | 8 | Over | 4.5 |
| TCU | 7.5 | 3 | Under | -4.5 |
| LSU | 9 | 5 | Under | -4.0 |
Our College Football 25 simulation has produced some very interesting results regarding college football win totals. Interestingly enough, the simulation wasn’t off by more than 4.5 games for any particular team.
Northwestern Wildcats Win Total
Big 10 school Northwestern thrived in our College Football 25 simulation. David Braun’s team won nine games, exceeding their college football win total of 4.5 by a substantial margin. I think there’s some value in the Wildcats’ number right now.
The Wildcats are coming off a surprising 8-5 season in 2023 under new head coach Braun. However, their win total for 2024 is below five due to a daunting schedule that begins with a 2,000-mile trip to Washington to face the defending Pac-12 champs in their Big Ten debut.
Still, Northwestern will be fielding an experienced roster this season, anchored by LB Xander Mueller, who is the heart and soul of the defense. Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning also return at receiver to catch passes from dual-transfer QB Mike Wright, coming in from Vanderbilt.
I am projecting Northwestern at 5-6 wins, which isn’t as lofty as the College Football simulation but still makes the team worth a look in the CFB win totals. Key division games against Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois, plus the play of Wright, will be the deciding factors.
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TCU Horned Frogs Win Total
Another team with an interesting win total result in our CFB 25 simulation is the TCU Horned Frogs. Sonny Dykes’ team currently has a win total of 7.5, but our simulation has the Horned Frogs finishing with just three victories.
TCU is coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2023 following their national championship game appearance. Instead of bouncing back in 2024 to become an elite Big 12 contender, the EA Sports video game forecasts Texas Christian University to take another step backward.
It’s hard to be overly optimistic about the Frogs in 2024, as they must replace nearly their entire starting offensive line, returning just 13 combined starts. While the transfer portal helped bolster depth, cohesion could be an issue early on.
Perhaps the biggest question mark for TCU is the hiring of former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator. The scheme change from a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 could lead to growing pains, particularly in the trenches where depth is a concern.
I’m not rushing out to hammer the “under” on TCU’s win total, primarily because the odds are already juiced to -150. TCU’s 2024 schedule also ranks 58th nationally in difficulty, which is favorable compared to other Big 12 teams.
Playoff Teams in CFB 25 Simulation
| Team | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Texas | -235 |
| Oregon | -300 |
| Clemson | +190 |
| Texas Tech | +950 |
| Michigan | +115 |
| Georgia | -550 |
| Notre Dame | -165 |
| Iowa State | +750 |
| Penn State | -140 |
| NC State | +500 |
| Ohio State | -650 |
| Boise State | +490 |
Our College Football 25 simulation produced fewer surprises than expected when it came to the 12-team college football playoff bracket. Despite notable discrepancies in the win totals, only three teams currently longer than +500 made the CFP bracket in our simulation.
Alabama Missed out on CFP Berth
Our College Football 25 simulation has the Alabama Crimson Tide missing out on a CFP berth in the first year following Nick Saban’s departure. While the Tide not making the CFP isn’t super difficult to envision, I have a hard time imagining only two SEC teams (Texas and Georgia) making the playoff.
There are rumblings the SEC could get up to four teams in the CFP in the expanded 12-team bracket, as the playoff committee has shown they respect the conference’s loaded schedule more than any other. A whopping 12 SEC teams have made appearances in the College Football Playoff since its inception in the 2014-15 season.
I don’t argue with the simulation leaving out the Tide, however, as I forecast a new SEC contender such as Ole Miss will steal Alabama’s spot. Saban’s influence on the team’s success, especially on the defensive side of the ball, cannot be overstated.
Jalen Milroe is dependable at quarterback, but the wide receiver position remains a significant question mark, with no clear standout yet emerging to lead the receiving corps. Alabama’s schedule is a gauntlet headlined by matchups against Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma.
While betting against Alabama proved costly under Saban, I am going to look to bet the Tide to miss the CFP in year one under DeBoer. The defense will undoubtedly take a step back without Saban, leading to more high-scoring games. I’m skeptical that the Tide will have the weapons to keep pace.
CFP Longshots to Consider
The biggest longshot to make the CFP bracket in our CFB 25 simulation is the Texas Tech Red Raiders at +950. TTU is coming off a 7-6 season in 2023 under head coach Joey McGuire and has made significant additions through the transfer portal, especially on offense.
TTU qualifying for the CFP likely hinges on the quarterback play of Behren Morton, who completed 62% of his passes with 15 TDs and eight interceptions in 2023.
Morton is reportedly fully healthy following shoulder surgery, but it must be noted that Texas Texas has lost its starting quarterback to injury in seven straight seasons. There are major concerns about the team’s ability to protect its QB heading into 2024.
While Tahj Brooks is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and returns after a 1,500+ yard season, Ben Roberts is the only returning linebacker. The Big 12 is likely only going to get a maximum of two teams in the CFP, and an experienced OK State team is my longshot pick behind the safer choice of Utah.
While I’m not that interested in the two Big 12 longshots on this list, I do think Boise State holds some value in the Mountain West. With an automatic bid available for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, the Broncos are in a solid position to take the throne.
Is it just me or is Malachi Nelson making Boise State a trendy pick to make the CFP?!
Pretty hard to be better than Taylen Green and he’s has never played #boisestate #CollegeFootball #cfb
— TP3Bets (@TP3bets) July 30, 2024
Although they are breaking in a new coach once again, BSU has concistley performed at a high level despite frequently introducing new head coaches. Boise State’s home games are also played on the iconic Smurf Turf at Bronco Stadium, which provides a notable home-field advantage.
Boise State has not had a losing season since 1997, so I’m going to be sprinkling on them to be the Group Of 5’s CFP representation. 11 starters return on defense, and USC transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson from USC could be the perfect compliment to elite running back Ashton Jeanty.
College Football 25 National Championship Simulation
| Winner | Current Title Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| NC State | +13000 | 0.8% |
| Runner-Up | Current Title Odds | Implied Probability |
| Penn State | +2200 | 4.3% |
In our college football 25 simulation, the NC State Wolfpack defeated the Penn State Nittany Lions in the National Title game by a 42-38 final score. The current National Championship odds imply just a 0.8% chance of the Wolfpack winning the CFP.
Will NC State Shock the World?
The boldest prediction produced by our College Football 25 simulation pertains to the ultimate National Champion. ACC contender NC State took home the trophy in our simulation despite currently sporting the 22nd-best odds to win the title in real life (+13000).
I can’t confidently tell you to place a full unit bet on the Wolfpack to win this thing, but I can tell you why they could be worth a sprinkle. It all starts with the addition of Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall, who has thrown for nearly 10,000 yards during his collegiate career to date.
McCall will throw to NC State’s top receiver, Kevin “KC” Concepcion, who won ACC Rookie of the Year with 1,159 all-purpose yards in 2023. The offense also added more weapons through transfers in WR Noah Rogers (Ohio State) and RB Jordan Waters (Duke).
The Wolfpack also return four starters from their offensive line and replaced center Dylan McMahon, with ND transfer Zeke Correll. NC State has a favorable schedule in 2024, as they avoid both Clemson and Florida State in crossover play. Their toughest road games are at North Carolina and Miami.
Meanwhile, on special teams, Punter Caden Noonkester is back after leading the ACC with 71 punts for 3,022 yards in 2023. However, it isn’t all roses for the Wolfpack, as the defense doesn’t return a single starting linebacker, including losing Payton Wilson to the NFL.
#Steelers rookie LB Payton Wilson on his expectations in Year 1.
“I have higher expectations for myself than anyone. Whatever role the Pittsburgh Steelers want to hand me, I’m gonna hit it at 110 percent and try to help this team win a Super Bowl.” pic.twitter.com/Y166pbfAzD
— Aaron Becker (@Aaron_M_Becker) July 26, 2024
All things considered, the Wolfpack have some ingredients of a National Title sleeper but plenty of question marks. If you believe in our College Football 25 simulation, I’d recommend potentially looking at NC State to make the CFP at +500 in the make/miss CFP Odds.
The Wolfpack have a path to an ACC Championship game appearance, which would mean a CFP berth if they won it. At 150/1, NC State should be no more than an intriguing sprinkle bet for the national title.
The EA Sports game predicted NC State to go all the way but I am well aware the ACC is loaded at the top with Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina, all of whom have more overall talent than NC State.
College Football 25 Heisman Results
| POS | Player | Team | Actual Heisman Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dillon Gabriel | Oregon | +750 |
| WR | Traeshon Holden | Oregon | OFF |
| QB | Shedeur Sanders | Colorado | +3500 |
| QB | Cameron Ward | Miami | +2200 |
| QB | Chandler Morris | North Texas | OFF |
In our college football 25 simulated season, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel wins the Heisman following his transfer from Oklahoma. Gabriel edges out his teammate Traeshon Holden, plus beats out Colorado QB Shadeur Sanders.
Gabriel Wins Heisman
Our College Football 25 simulation resulted in Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel winning the Heisman. The ex-OU pivot recently became the co-favorite in the Heisman odds alongside Georgia QB Carson Beck, making this one of the more realistic simulation outcomes.
Gabriel to win the Heisman is probably my favorite bet produced by the CFB 25 simulation. I was big on Bo Nix’s chances of winning the Heisman last season, and although he fell short, Nix still received an invitation to the ceremony. Gabriel has the potential to finish what Nix started and bring the Heisman to Eugene.
The sixth-year player on his third collegiate stop has consistently put up impressive numbers throughout his career. In 2023 at Oklahoma, he threw for 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions while completing nearly 70% of his passes.
Now, Gabriel takes over an Oregon offense that averaged 44.2 points per game last season and returns key playmakers at WR in Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden. The experienced pivot will wear #8 at Oregon, the same number as Marcus Mariota, who won the Heisman for the Ducks in 2014.
The symmetry is there for Gabriel to follow in Mariota’s footsteps and make a run at Oregon’s second Heisman 10 years later. He certainly has the talent and supporting cast to do so. Mark your calendars for October 12, 2024, as that will be Gabriel’s first opportunity to have a marquee Heisman moment when the Ducks face off against Ohio State.
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