Cowboys vs Commanders Predictions: Howell and Co to give Dallas a scare

The second game of this Thanksgiving Day special of NFL action comes from Dallas where the hometown Cowboys take on the Commanders.

@NFLGirlUK is here with her preview of the matchup where she likes one team to win but the spread to go the other way…

The Washington Commanders will square off with the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving in a matchup that might wind up being incredibly entertaining. It might not seem enticing on paper, but there’s a lot to offer when it comes to these two squads.

Starting with the Commanders, they tend to play up or down to the level of their opponents in their division. When we saw them play the lowly New York Giants, they were outclassed in both matchups and lost both of them. Thoese two wins account for 66% of the Giants’ three total wins this season. They scored only seven in the first matchup, and 19 in the next.

Then, on the flip side of things, the 3-7 team played the Philadelphia Eagles very well. The 9-1 Eagles won both games, but neither of those were decided until the very last second.

In those games, Washington scored 31 points in each. Clearly, this team loves playing up or down to the level of their opponents, which could help them rise to the occasion against Dallas. It also helps that they have a confident gunslinger in Sam Howell who isn’t afraid to take shots down the field. He’s getting a lot out of his receivers in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, etc.

The run game has struggled with Brian Robinson, though some of that blame can go towards the offensive line and their inability to play with a lead rather more than anything else. Where the Commanders really struggle is defensively because they consistently give up chunk plays down the field. They also traded their best two edge rushers in Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

As for the Cowboys, the best part of their team is their swarming defense. Micah Parsons has a legitimate case for the best defensive player in football, while cornerback Daron Bland made history by recording his fourth pick-six of the season last week.

Even without Trevon Diggs, this is a defense that flies after the ball and makes plays on a consistent basis. It won’t be easy for Howell and company to make these big plays while simultaneously avoiding turnovers. But, even if Dallas doesn’t play well defensively, their offense is strong enough to win games anyway.

Dak Prescott, for as much hate as he receives, is playing great football right now. He’s got 2,604 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season. CeeDee Lamb has 1,013 of those yards and five touchdowns, proving to be a reliable weapon and target for Dak down the field.

It’s been the other weapons that have made a bigger difference. Guys like Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks have really come alive to make big plays. Talent-wise, Dallas should handle this game easily.

The problem arises in the fact that it’s a divisional game. Most divisional games end up being close, especially when talking about the Washington Commanders this season. They could keep this one interesting against a stout Cowboys team, but I just don’t see them finding a way to pull it out. Dallas has also won three of the last four matchups with them.

Match Odds:

Dallas are big favourites in this one coming in at just 2/11 to win the game outright. The 4/1 on Washington to get the W says plenty about what the traders think of this matchup.

The spread has been set at Dallas-10.5 and that feels maybe a bit big for a divisional game. I may well come back to that thought imminently. The over/under line has been set at 48.5.

Both Tony Pollard (4/7) and CeeDee Lamb (4/6) are priced up at odds-on to score anytime in the second Thanksgiving game of the day.

Bet 1 – Washington +10.5 @ 20/21

This is a divisional game and they don’t often result in giant point spreads. I think Dallas win but Washington have found ways to keep big games close this season and if you are giving me them with a 10.5pt head-start, I think that is very much the way to go.

Bet 2 – Sam Howell over 274.5 Passing Yards @ 11/10

As I said earlier, the Commanders have a confident gunslinger in Sam Howell who actually has some legitimate talent to get the ball out to. He’s cleared 300 yards in three of his past four with only the strange game against the Giants last time out seeing him miss the 274.5 mark in the past month.

It would not be surprising to see the Cowboys play soft prevent D late to allow Howell to rack up some easy yards and get him over the number we need.

For all the NFL Betting Tips from the team here at Betfred Insights, check out our NFL hub page…