In today’s Sunday Times Tim Shipman reports that

When Sunak decides to call the election is becoming an issue of personality and nerve. Labour expects him to call a May election, despite the huge poll deficit. The prime minister has told Richard Holden, the new party chairman, to make sure the Tory machine is ready for then. Holding the budget earlier than usual could be a sign of a government preparing for a general election on May 2, the same day as the local elections.

But several senior aides believe Sunak needs longer to deliver money into people’s pockets. While Labour is planning to finalise its manifesto in January, the Tories don’t expect to get to that point until March.

Isaac Levido, the Tory election director has pencilled in polling day for November 14, nine days after the US presidential election. “They say autumn but act like it’s May,” said a source close to Starmer. “They’re cutting taxes in January instead of April. That is a £2.5 billion tax cut. It would be the most expensive bottle job in history.”

Some Tories fear Sunak’s inner circle, particularly Forsyth, wants to preserve Sunak’s reputation rather than taking the tough choices needed to win. “Rishi doesn’t understand politics well,” a former Downing Street aide said. “But since James arrived, Rishi always had someone to tell him ‘You’re right’ and encourage the ‘poor me, it’s all so unfair’ attitude, which has also been fatal.” Another ex-No 10 aide said: “Not taking any risks is itself a risk.”

I am not sure I have the emotional bandwidth to cope with the aftermath of an American Presidential election and a UK general election overlapping in these nine days. Betting on the date of the next UK general election is going to a major focus of PB and the betting markets.

The Shipman article also has damning proof on Sunak’s faulty judgment, he had talks to bring back Dominic Cummings.

TSE