- The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills in their NFL game on Sunday, December 10
- Buffalo is an NFL-worst 0-2 ATS as an away underdog this season
- The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in conference games during the 2023 campaign. Are they the best bet in our Bills vs Chiefs picks?
As they face the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4, 7-5 ATS) in their latest season-saving must-win game, at least the Buffalo Bills (6-6, 4-8 ATS) have a key omen in their corner, despite being slight underdogs in the Bills vs Chiefs odds.
During the Patrick Mahomes era as the Chiefs’ QB1, only two QBs have won multiple games in Kansas City. Mahomes, naturally is one of them. The other is Buffalo’s Josh Allen. He’s the only NFL QB to twice beat Mahomes on his home turf.
Oddsmakers, though are putting more stock into Buffalo’s woeful ways so far this season. It’s Kansas City that is set as 1-point home favorites in the Bills vs Chiefs odds. Kansas City is 3-2 against the spread this season as the home chalk.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -105 | +1 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -115 | -1 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-105) |
In the Buffalo vs Kansas City odds, the Chiefs are -115 moneyline favorites, giving them an 53.49% implied win probability. The total is set at 48.5 points. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 games in which Buffalo was a betting underdog.
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Kickoff for this game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, December 10, is set for 4:25 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.
Buffalo vs Kansas City Betting Trends
In the NFL public betting splits, spread bettors are going with the Bills. Buffalo is getting 69% the handle in the spread splits. However, there’s an equal 69% of the moneyline splits backing Kansas City to win outright.
The Chiefs are a solid 5-2 ATS in games against AFC opposition this season. Buffalo is just 3-5 ATS when the opponent is from the AFC. Overall, the Bills are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games.
Straight up, Kansas City is 12-1 in the last 13 conference games. The Chiefs are also 17-2 SU in their last 19 games played during the month of December. Buffalo is 2-6 SU in the past eight games. The Bills are 1-4 SU when facing teams with .500 or better records.
Ten of Buffalo’s last 13 games have gone under. Four of Kansas City’s five home games this season have also cashed on the under.
Kansas City is the +500 second betting choice in the Super Bowl odds. The Bills are set with ninth-best odds of +3500 in this betting market.
Mahomes vs Allen the Game Within the Game
The current generation’s version of Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady, it’s Mahomes that has the Super Bowl titles, and is the one with the edge in head-to-head clashes. He’s won three of five against Allen, including two playoff game meetings.
Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes H2H
Josh Allen vs Kansas City
5 Games – *4 in KC*
1,671 Yards
15 TDs
2 INTs
107.9 Passer Rating
2-3 RecordPatrick Mahomes vs Buffalo
5 Games – *1 in Buffalo (no fans)*
1,730 Yards
13 TDs
4 INTS
103.5 Passer Rating
3-2 Record#BillsMafia | #NFL pic.twitter.com/8NizThtv1h— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) December 6, 2023
But both of Allen’s wins were regular-season verdicts at Arrowhead. Allen leads the NFL with 257 total touchdowns since 2018. Mahomes is next with 238.
SPORTSBOOK
SBD’s Odds Boost of the Day:
Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes Both to Throw 2+ Pass TDs
Could Turnovers Turn the Tide?
Allen is second in the NFL in interceptions, with 13 on his ledger. He’s been picked off in eight successive games and in 10 of 12 games this season.
That could prove a telling stat. Buffalo is 8-1 (.889) SU when not throwing an interception since the start of the 2022 season. The Chiefs are 17-4 (.810) SU when forcing one or more turnovers over that same time frame.
Josh Allen is a Great QB, turnovers be damned. Period end of story. Only player not named Patrick Mahomes with 100 + total touchdowns since 2021. 2nd in wins and 4th in playoff wins since 2018. Bills are 6-6 but their Championship window isn’t closed as long as they have Allen. pic.twitter.com/7Jt59sLpXD
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) December 8, 2023
That number is third-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 47 times since the beginning of last season. That’s tied for third-most turnovers in the NFL.
As much as the NFL pundits talk ad naseum about Allen’s interception issues, the fact of the matter is that it hasn’t been a banner year when it comes to protecting the ball for Mahomes, either. He’s been picked off 10 times. That’s three shy of his career high of 13 interceptions set in 2021.
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction
Both of these teams come in sputtering. Kansas City has failed to score 20 points twice in the last three games, while surrendering 20 points in all three games. In Buffalo’s six defeats, four times the Bills have coughed up a lead in the fourth quarter or overtime.
Still, it’s Buffalo that must win to keep the postseason a realistic possibility. Will Allen complete the regular-season hat-trick over Mahomes in KC? The Bills are coming off the bye and under head coach Sean McDermott are 6-0 SU following their bye week.
Bills vs Chiefs Picks: Buffalo Bills +1 (-110)
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SBD’s Odds Boost of the Day:
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