Brazil vs Ecuador Prediction: La Tri to pile further pressure on Dorival in Curitiba

After a disappointing 2024 Copa America campaign in the USA, where they won just once and exited to Uruguay in the quarter-finals, Brazil resume South American 2026 World Cup qualification duties on Saturday (02:00, Premier Sports 1) as they host Ecuador in Curitiba.

Read on for my Brazil vs Ecuador prediction and all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this clash at the Estadio Couto Pereira.

Team News

Borussia Dortmund right-back Yan Couto, Manchester City winger Savinho, and Flamengo forward Pedro were all called up by Dorival for this month’s World Cup qualifiers against Ecuador and Paraguay, but the trio have been forced to pull out through injury.

North London rivals Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) and Richarlison (Tottenham Hotspur) have been overlooked, as has Douglas Luiz after swapping Aston Villa for Juventus in the summer.

Barcelona’s Raphinha is suspended for Saturday’s game after picking up two yellow cards in his first four qualifiers, paving the way for an all-Real Madrid frontline of Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo and Endrick, while Wolves’ new arrival Andre could join Newcastle United’s Bruno Guimaraes and West Ham United’s Lucas Paqueta in an all-Premier League midfield.

There are three uncapped players in the latest Selecao squad: Cruzeiro defender William, Botafogo forward Luiz Henrique, and Palmeiras wonderkid Estevao, who will join Chelsea next summer.

Football Odds

Fernecvaros defender Cristian Ramirez has withdrawn from the Ecuador squad due to injury, while there is no place for 78-cap LDU Quito goalkeeper Alexander Dominguez, who was an ever-present in La Tri’s run to the 2024 Copa America quarter-finals.

Brighton & Hove Albion left-back Pervis Estupinan missed the summer tournament through injury but made his return to club action at the end of August and is in line to feature in Curitiba, although he may have to accept a substitute role on Saturday.

La Tri’s all-time leading scorer, Internacional striker Enner Valencia, endured a difficult Copa America campaign as he was sent off in his country’s opening 2-1 defeat to Venezuela and failed to score on his return.

However, the Ecuador captain is expected to start against Brazil, supported by Independiente del Valle’s teenage sensation Kendry Paez, who will join Estevao at Stamford Bridge next year and link up with international teammate Moises Caicedo who, like Valencia, was booked in the last head-to-head between these two nations, a January 2022 1-1 draw in Quito.

Brazil vs Ecuador Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Brazil vs Ecuador page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Brazil are 1/3 to secure a first victory over Ecuador since June 2021, when Richarlison and Neymar scored in a 2-0 win for the Selecao in Porto Alegre, albeit without spectators present. Those odds give Saturday’s hosts an implied win probability of 75%, while their opponents are 15/2, or an 11.8% chance, to triumph for the very first time in Brazil.

The last two meetings between these sides, in Goiania (Brazil) in June 2021 and in Quito in January 2021, finished 1-1 – you can back the same scoreline for a third game running at 8-1, or merely the draw result at 16/5.

Endrick is favourite to score anytime at 6/4, closely followed by club teammates Vinicius Jr. (7/4) and Rodrygo (15/8), while Valencia is considered Ecuador’s most likely anytime scorer at 16/5.

Double Chance – Draw or Ecuador @ 2/1

Ecuador have only lost one of their last nine competitive games in regulation time – that 2-1 defeat to Venezuela in the Copa America group stage – with their quarter-final exit to Argentina coming after a penalty shoot-out. La Albicelesete are, in fact, the only side to have beaten La Tri in 2026 World Cup qualification, winning their opening-round fixture 1-0 in Buenos Aires.

Since that loss, Ecuador have collected 11 points from the 15 available, beating Uruguay (2-1) and Chile (1-0) in Quito, winning away in Bolivia (1-2), and playing out goalless draws at home to Colombia and away in Venezeula. Sebastian Beccacece’s side currently sit fifth in the South American standings, one point behind fourth-placed Venezuela, who have played a game more, and one point ahead of Brazil who, after beating Bolivia (5-1) and Peru (0-1) in back-to-back games and drawing 1-1 at home to Venezuela, have lost their last three World Cup qualifiers.

The Selecao suffered defeats in Uruguay (2-0) and Colombia (2-1) before losing their first-ever World Cup qualifier at home, against Argentina (0-1). The pressure is really on Dorival to get Brazil back in the groove, but a disastrous Copa America campaign suggests he may not be the man to sole their problems.

Ecuador showed their resilience in the summer by fighting back from a goal down to equalise late on against eventual Copa America champions Argentina, forcing a penalty shoot-out in the process, and La Tri – led by their Argentine head coach – will be desperate to show Brazil what they are all about on Saturday.

Given the form of the respective sides, and the injury and suspension issues in the Brazilian camp, I like the odds of Ecuador to avoid defeat for the third successive time against the Selecao.

Player to Receive a Card – Vinicius Jr. @ 18/5

Vinicius Jr. endures a rough time of it against defenders as they constantly try to rile him up, either by committing some forceful tackles/fouls, or by engaging in conversation with the Real Madrid man.

The 24-year-old can certainly give some back, however, as evidenced in the 0.9 fouls per game he made in La Liga last season, and he was booked seven times for his troubles. He’s already made six fouls across four league outings this term and was shown a yellow card in last Sunday’s 2-0 victory over Real Betis for showing dissent towards the referee, his second caution of the campaign after also incurring the referee’s wrath in Real Madrid’s 2-0 win against Atalanta in the Uefa Super Cup.

Vinicius Jr. was booked twice at the 2024 Copa America and his second proved costly as it ruled him out of Brazil’s quarter-final against Uruguay, when they lost on penalties to La Celeste. He can expect to come in for some rough treatment from the likes of Caicedo on Saturday, and at 18/5, the odds look enticing for him to lose his rag again.

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