BMW PGA Championship 2024 FRL Tips: Five to fire early at Wentworth

The DP World Tour heads to Wentworth this week and our golf tipster Jamie Worsley has already posted his BMW PGA Championship Betting Preview here at Betfred Insights.

Now though, he focuses on the First Round Leader market and has five names to consider playing at good odds. Check out his BMW PGA Championship FRL Tips below…

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Thursday’s opening round of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth is forecast to be a breezy one. However, there’s a time of day that looks to have optimum conditions and with this tying in historically to those who often go well in round one here, we’ve found a good place to attack tomorrow’s first-round leader market.

Each group will tee off on the 1^st hole in continuous 10/15 minute increments throughout the day, with the first trio off at 07:00 and the final one out at 14:05. Therefore, it’s not simply a case of favouring the AM or PM wave as with most events.

The very earliest starters will be advantaged by gentler winds – of 7mph and gusts of up to 16mph – but will begin in much cooler temperatures. Both the wind speeds and temperature will rise throughout the day, with the latest starters playing in 20C+ but having to handle gusts of close to 30mph.

Due to those cooler temperatures early and the commonly-rising later winds, it’s no surprise that first-round leaders here are usually neither among the first or last players out on the course.

Looking at the last 10 renewals, the time-slot of 8:30 – 10:00 has produced more first-round leaders than any other. With that time of day also looking to have the most favourable conditions tomorrow – slightly warmer than for those out at 7:00 and less breezy than players off at 13:00+ – this is where I’ll focus my attention.

Another thing to consider is course experience and it’s rather telling in terms of who is likely to take the lead tomorrow. There have been 17 players to hold at least a share of the first-round lead since 2014 and of those players, only Adri Arnaus in 2020 was making his debut. This enables us to reduce the shortlist further and has me looking at a concentrated selection of players this week.

0.75 pts Laurie Canter ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 55/1 

Start time: 09:25

Laurie Canter has been in fast first-round form in recent starts and having finished 2^nd here on debut in 2021, we can be sure he has the ability to score well at the course.

Canter has rediscovered his form over recent starts after enduring a slight lull following his breakthrough DP World Tour victory in the European Open back in June. He’s recorded three top-25s across his last four starts, finishing 25^th in The Open, 25^th in the British Masters and 17^th in last week’s Irish Open.

That win in Germany was aided by a positive start, as he fired a 5-under 68 to sit 2^nd at close of play on Thursday. He’s been starting similarly in those latest starts, sitting 5^th after the opening round of the British Masters and 9^th thru 18 holes last week.

Canter started well at Wentworth when finishing 2^nd on debut, opening with a 5-under 67 to hit the top-5, before then going on to fire further rounds of 66 in round two and another 67 in round four. That experience should count for plenty, and I expect a strong showing from the Englishman from his favourable tee time tomorrow.

0.75 pts Shubhankar Sharma ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 09:55

Shubhankar Sharma has a good record at Wentworth and prior to last week, he had started well in his previous events. He rallied after a poor start in Northern Ireland, hitting the ball well and I’m counting on him bringing that same energy to tomorrow’s first round.

He has made his last 12 cuts in a row and has hit the top-20 in four of his last seven starts, including a 5^th-place finish in the Italian Open. In addition, he’s started with an under-par round in seven of his last nine.

Sharma has made the cut in four of his five starts here, finishing 17^th on debut in 2019 and recording a best of 9^th in 2021. With several rounds of 66/67 to his name, he knows how to go low and can find another of those low ones tomorrow.

0.5 pts Frederic LaCroix ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 09:45

Frederic LaCroix’s strong ball-striking took him to a first tour win three starts ago in the Danish Golf Championship and showing promise on his solo Wentworth start in 2022, he can take the lead early on Thursday.

LaCroix had been threatening all year, finishing top-5 in Ras Al Khaimah and Bahrain, and was 3^rd in the Czech Masters the week preceding his win in Denmark. He understandably missed the cut the following week in the British Masters but after a couple of weeks off, he returned to finish an encouraging 17^th in the Irish Open.

He had made some positive starts prior to his win and carried that over to Denmark, shooting a 4-under 67 sit in 2^nd place after the first round.

The Frenchman finished 65^th here on his debut in 2022, however a second-round 67 there showed that he has the ability to make birdies at the course and with his heightened level of confidence, I’m expecting him to make a fast start tomorrow.

0.5 pts Alexander Bjork ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 90/1 

Start time: 09:15

Alexander Bjork returned to DP World Tour action two weeks ago at Crans, finishing 12th. He started well there and with a strong record in the BMW PGA Championship, he looks good value to make another positive start tomorrow.

Bjork has had a difficult time in his rookie PGA Tour season but has shown his quality at this level on both occasions he’s returned to the tour, finishing 12^th in the Scandinavian Mixed and in the European Masters.

Despite his subdued form on the PGA Tour, he has generally played well in round one and ranks 10^th in this field in first-round performance this year. Something he showed two weeks ago, firing a 4-under 66 in the opening round in Switzerland.

Bjork finished 14^th on his Wentworth debut in 2017 and recorded his second top-20 in the event last year, finishing 18^th. He opened with a 4-under 68 there to finish the opening day in 12^th-place – the second time in three years he’s hit the top-15 – and looks a big price to go even better in this year’s first round.

0.5 pts Oliver Wilson ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 225/1

Start time: 09:35

Oliver Wilson has had a tough time at Wentworth since finishing 2^nd in 2008. However, he’s played the course much better in the last three years and coming in after a good start at Royal County Down, he looks worth chancing at a huge price to be the first-round leader.

Wilson is currently enjoying his most consistent run of results of the season, making each of his last six cuts. Whilst this has predominantly been down to his short game, he’s produced many stand-out rounds in approach, including in last week’s opening round.

His excellent approach display in the first round in Northern Ireland took him to a 2-under 69 and 9^th on the leaderboard. That wasn’t his only encouraging start lately, as he also shot a 5-under 67 to sit 14^th after 18 holes in the Czech Masters five starts ago.

Wilson missed his next seven cuts in a row here after that 2^nd in 2008 but has made all of his last three. Over which time he’s started reasonably well and finished 23^rd in 2022. The first rounds here often throw up a surprise name at the top of the leaderboard and I’m hoping he can be the man to take that spot this week.

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