I have said this before but I think this betting market offers very good value for those wanting to risk their cash on LAB not getting an overall majority. The way the market is defined Starmer’s party would need to win 326 seats which is exactly 122 more than they got at the last general election.
This is a huge ask and I think people are understating the Tory vote because so many former Tory voters simply say don’t know when asked about voting intention. According to the latest Opninium poll just 44% of GE2019 CON voters are sticking with the party but my guess is that this proportion will be much higher when get to voting.
Also LAB do not need to make 122 gains in order to form a government. What needs to happen is for the Tories to lose their effective majority which happens with 47 seat losses. As long as SF MPs in Northern Ireland don’t take their seats then the target will be lower.
A big factor is likely to be LD gains in the blue wall. What we are not seeing is a big switch from 2019 Tory voters to LAB.
My only bet here is on LAB not getting an overall majority as defined in the bet.
