- What: UFC 306
- Who: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Location: Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The much anticipated Riyadh Season Noche UFC fight card takes place on Saturday, September 14 from Sphere in Las Vegas. The event, also known as UFC 306, marks the fight promotion’s second celebration of Mexican Independence Day, is headlined by a bantamweight title fight. That matchup finds UFC 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley putting his title on the line against the No. 1 ranked Merab Dvalishvili. The evening’s co-main event is a trilogy title fight between UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko. Before that, Brian Ortega faces Diego Lopes at featherweight. Here is some background on Ortega and Lopes before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 306.
Brian Ortega (16-3-0-1) is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings. Ortega has fought twice for the UFC’s 145-pound title, losing to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. He is coming off a February submission win over Yair Rodriguez.
Diego Lopes (25-6) is ranked at No. 12 in the UFC 145-pound weight division. Lopes is on a three-fight winning streak and coming off an April TKO victory over Sodiq Yusuff. UFC 306 is an enormous step up in competition for Lopes.
Before we look at the best bets for Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes on the UFC 306 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and the best bets for the UFC 306 main event.
UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes betting picks
| Fighters |  |
 |
 |
 |
| Diego Lopes | -190 | -180 | -190 | -190 |
| Brian Ortega | +165 | +165 | +160 | +147 |
Why Ortega vs. Lopes matters
This contest was initially booked as a short-notice co-main event for UFC 303. In the lead-up to weigh-in day, Ortega reached out to Lopes’ team to inform them that he could not make the 145-pound limit. With that, Lopes agreed to a 155-pound lightweight contest. The fighters weighed in the day before the event. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and had to drop off the card. Dan Ige, who lives in Las Vegas, stepped in. Lopes agreed to face Ige at 165 pounds. Lopes won that contest by decision.
Brian Ortega betting breakdown
Brian Ortega is a tough fighter with a solid chin. His two TKO losses have come by way of injury and doctor stoppage, so count on him to be in this fight until the end. Ortega is a top-notch grappler with eight submission wins, but his takedown accuracy is just 27 percent, which is low. However, he has good cardio, and he can string takedown attempts together until he gets the fight to the mat.
Ortega is a pressure striker. He lands 4.07 significant strikes per minute, but his defense is lacking and he absorbs 6.54 significant strikes per minute, which is a worry against someone like Lopes, who is coming off two TKO wins in a row.
Ortega has been with the UFC 2014 and has been inside the cage with some of the best fighters in the UFC’s featherweight division. That level of experience will come into play in this fight. There’s nothing the 33-year-old Ortega hasn’t seen inside the Octagon.
What makes Ortega so dangerous is that he never quits. He can be far behind on the scorecards and still be a threat to pick up a win via stoppage.
Diego Lopes betting breakdown
At 29, Diego Lopes has been with the UFC since May 2023. He lost his UFC debut, dropping a decision to Movsar Evloev, but since that setback, Lopes is 3-0 with three first-round stoppage wins. He has only gone the distance seven times in his career, winning three of those bouts and losing four. Of his wins, 10 have come by knockout and 12 via submission. His two other losses are both by knockout.
Lopes is a dangerous grappler with a wealth of talent on the mat. He has heavy hands and he is a fighter who wants to get a finish every time he steps into the Octagon. He throws a lot of combinations and he uses pressure on the feet. However, he can sometimes get a bit wild with his striking. Lopes lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 55 percent. He absorbs 4.08 significant strikes per minute.
UFC 306 will be a huge opportunity for Lopes to make a massive jump up the UFC featherweight rankings. He has all the tools to compete at the top of the division, and although he doesn’t have the high-level experience of Ortega, he does have more fights than his opponent on this card.
The question Lopes must answer in Las Vegas is if he can deal with someone like Ortega, who will be in his face for the entirety of their matchup.
Best Bets – UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes
Ortega is resilient and tough, but he takes a lot of damage. If Lopes can pace himself and not get too aggressive in looking for a finish, this fight is his to lose.
The betting pick is for Diego Lopes to win via decision or a late doctor stoppage.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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