- The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys meet on Monday Night Football on Nov. 18
- Nico Collins is set to return from a five-game absence and should feast on an injured Dallas secondary
- Below, get a +133 Texans vs Cowboys same-game parlay
The NFL’s two Texas teams are headed in opposite directions as they get set to meet on Monday Night Football in Week 11. The Houston Texans (6-4) can open a three-game lead in the AFC South with a win, while the Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 0-4 home, ATS) are just looking to end a four-game losing streak. Houston and Dallas kickoff at 8:15 pm ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and I have crafted a +133 Texans vs Cowboys SGP to hold your interest in a game that could turn into a blowout early.
Texans vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Texans -1.5 | -320 |
| Over 32.5 points | -480 |
| Nico Collins over 49.5 receiving yards | -310 |
| HOU vs DAL SGP Odds | +133 (using FanDuel’s 30% SGP boost) |
Tonight, I’m bundling a trio of bets that all look abundantly safe, at least on the surface. Using FanDuel’s 30% profit boost for MNF, the total odds for my three-leg Dallas/Houston SGP come out to +133.
Odds as of Nov. 11 at FanDuel. See SBD”s list of Visa betting sites.
The current Texans vs Cowboys odds favor Houston by a touchdown as of Monday morning. Almost all of the money is on Houston to both win and cover. The latest NFL public betting splits show the Texans getting 84% of moneyline handle as short -375 chalk and 72% of ATS handle.
Texans vs Cowboys SGP Pick #1: Texans -1.5 (-320)
The first leg of tonight’s parlay is basically the Houston moneyline. Dallas was already in a tailspin before QB Dak Prescott went down. Since losing their starting pivot and replacing him with Cooper Rush, the tailspin has become a death spiral.
During their current four-game losing streak, the Cowboys have been outscored 138-60. The defense has been atrocious in all but a few games this season and currently sits 30th in overall rating at PFF, ahead of only the Saints and Panthers.
Making matters worse, Houston is slated to get leading receiver Nico Collins back, who still leads the Texans with 567 receiving yards despite missing the last five games. (More on Collins later.)
Sophomore QB CJ Stroud hasn’t really turned into the MVP contender many pundits expected this year – his passer rating has dropped from 100.8 as a rookie to 89.1 this year – but he’s also been working with a depleted receiving corps most of the year. This is a prime get-right spot for the Ohio State product.
HOU vs DAL Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Over 32.5 Points (-480)
The second leg of today’s Texans vs Cowboys SGP is over a very low alternate total of 32.5 points. Only one of the 19 games these teams have played this year has ended under 32.5 points, and that came in Houston’s 19-13 Week 2 victory over Chicago.
With Rush under center against the Eagles last week, Dallas managed just six points and the QB managed just 45 yards on 13-of-23 passing. A repeat performance tonight could spell disaster for this bet. But the Houston defense isn’t as good as Philly’s, which grades out as the top D in the entire NFL.
Rush has made plenty of serviceable appearances with the Cowboys over the years, including the week prior when he replaced the injured Prescott mid-game against Atlanta. Rush was 13-of-25 for 115 yards and a TD in one quarter of action against the Falcons.
The majority of his playing time came when Prescott was injured in 2022. Rush started five games, averaging 192.5 yards per game with five TDs and three picks (which all came in another disastrous start against the Eagles). I’m not the only one expecting a certain level of competence from Rush; one of John Hyslop’s best Texans vs Cowboys player props tonight is Dallas RB Rico Dowdle to go over 4.5 receptions at long +270 odds.
As long as Rush isn’t playing Philly, he can lead this offense to more than a few points. And even if Dallas gets shutout, three of the Cowboys’ opponents have scored more than 32.5 points on their own this season.
Texans vs Cowboys SGP Pick #3: Nico Collins Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-310)
Coming off his first thousand-yard season last year, Nico Collins was well on his way to a new career-high before getting injured in Week 5. The Michigan product was averaging 113.4 YPG through five weeks and is set to return from a hamstring injury tonight.
This isn’t a test-it-out situation either. Collins was a full participant in practice on both Friday and Saturday, and he carries no injury designation heading into MNF.
Houston may want to ease him back into action in a game they’d likely win without their emerging star. But with Stefon Diggs on IR, the Texans don’t have a ton of other options on the outside (hence why Collins is still Houston’s leading receiver despite missing half the season).
Expect Collins to be the focal point of the passing game the moment he steps back on the field.
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