• The Saints and Chiefs meet on Monday Night Football on Oct. 7
• The injury-riddled-but-undefeated Chiefs would open a two-game lead
• Below, see a +283 Saints vs Chiefs same-game parlay for Monday Night Football on Oct. 7

The New Orleans Saints (2-2, 1-1 away, 3-1 ATS) travel to Arrowhead Stadium tonight for a tilt with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 3-1 ATS, 2-0 home) on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET.

The Saints would move into a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with a win, while the Chiefs would open a two-game lead on Denver in the AFC West if they can improve to 5-0.

The Saints vs Chiefs odds heavily favor Patrick Mahomes and company maintaining their perfect record, listing KC as a 5.5-point favorite and -250 on the moneyline (71.43% implied win probability). My two-leg Saints vs Chiefs same-game parlay doesn’t have a play on the spread, but I am backing Mahomes to start increasing his production in what’s been a very disappointing season so far for his fantasy owners.

Saints vs Chiefs Same-Game Parlay Picks

Today’s Saints vs Chiefs SGP has just two legs, with the odds coming out to +283  using the 30% all-user profit boost available at FanDuel today.

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Odds as of Oct. 7 at FanDuel. Read SBD’s FanDuel review before signing up.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 13-14 (-0.17 units)

Saints vs Chiefs SGP Pick #1: Over 43.5 Points

Only one New Orleans games has stayed under 43.5 points this season, and that was a supremely strange 15-12 loss at home to the Eagles. Both teams spurned multiple opportunities to score in that one, especially Philly, which put up 460 yards of total offense.

Thanks mostly to lopsided wins in Weeks 1 and 2, New Orleans is currently ranked second in the NFL in DVOA (behind unbeaten Minnesota), including second on defense. But I think this unit is a bit of a sheep in wolf’s clothing. They were midpack in D-DVOA last year (15th) and their main additions were LB Willie Gay (who’s out) and former #2-overall pick Chase Young, who has just six tackles and half a sack this year while playing 71% of defensive snaps.

The Saints don’t have a bad defense by any means, but it’s not the monster that DVOA is currently making it out to be.

On the flipside, the Chiefs offense – injuries and all – is playing below its potential. Patrick Mahomes has thrown just six touchdowns and five interceptions. His passer rating sits at just 89.7, miles below his career average of 103.0. Injuries to Isiah Pacho, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown aren’t going to make his life easier, but bettors should still expect more production out of the KC offense going forward, which will help push this game over the modest total of 43.5.

NOLA vs KC Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Mahomes Over 230.5 Passing Yards

The second leg of today’s New Orleans/Kansas City SGP goes hand-in-hand with the first. I am taking Mahomes to hit the over on his passing-yards total of 230.5.

It’s no secret that the Chiefs are severely depleted at the running back position. Starter Pacheco remains on IR while his backup, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, is out as well. They were desperate enough to pick-up Kareem Hunt, who had a great rookie season back in 2017 before his career was derailed.

Hunt was decent in his first game back with KC (69 yards on 14 carries in a 17-10 over the Chargers) and John Hyslop is actually targeting him pretty hard in his Saints vs Chiefs player props. But I am not expecting much out of the Chiefs’ run game tonight, whether it’s Hill, Samaje Perine, or Carson Steele toting the rock.

What is Xavier Worthy’s fantasy value if Rashee misses the season?
pic.twitter.com/e4w3IQ6Mu9

— PredictionStrike (@PredictStrike) September 29, 2024

The onus is going to be on Mahomes to move the ball, and even though he doesn’t have the league’s best receiving corps, it’s neither as bad as it used to be nor as thin as many pundits make it out to be. Travis Kelce dispelled rumors of his demise last week with 89 yards on seven catches, and speedy rookie Xavier Worthy is already a better deep threat than anyone Mahomes was passing to last year.

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